Learning Graphical Models
Masked Deep Q-Recommender for Effective Question Scheduling
Chung, Keunhyung, Kim, Daehan, Lee, Sangheon, Jung, Guik
Providing appropriate questions according to a student's knowledge level is imperative in personalized learning. However, It requires a lot of manual effort for teachers to understand students' knowledge status and provide optimal questions accordingly. To address this problem, we introduce a question scheduling model that can effectively boost student knowledge level using Reinforcement Learning (RL). Our proposed method first evaluates students' concept-level knowledge using knowledge tracing (KT) model. Given predicted student knowledge, RL-based recommender predicts the benefits of each question. With curriculum range restriction and duplicate penalty, the recommender selects questions sequentially until it reaches the predefined number of questions. In an experimental setting using a student simulator, which gives 20 questions per day for two weeks, questions recommended by the proposed method increased average student knowledge level by 21.3%, superior to an expert-designed schedule baseline with a 10% increase in student knowledge levels.
Boosting Independent Component Analysis
Independent component analysis is intended to recover the unknown components as independent as possible from their linear mixtures. This technique has been widely used in many fields, such as data analysis, signal processing, and machine learning. In this paper, we present a novel boosting-based algorithm for independent component analysis. Our algorithm fills the gap in the nonparametric independent component analysis by introducing boosting to maximum likelihood estimation. A variety of experiments validate its performance compared with many of the presently known algorithms.
Dynamic Pricing and Demand Learning on a Large Network of Products: A PAC-Bayesian Approach
Keskin, N. Bora, Simchi-Levi, David, Talwai, Prem
We consider a seller offering a large network of $N$ products over a time horizon of $T$ periods. The seller does not know the parameters of the products' linear demand model, and can dynamically adjust product prices to learn the demand model based on sales observations. The seller aims to minimize its pseudo-regret, i.e., the expected revenue loss relative to a clairvoyant who knows the underlying demand model. We consider a sparse set of demand relationships between products to characterize various connectivity properties of the product network. In particular, we study three different sparsity frameworks: (1) $L_0$ sparsity, which constrains the number of connections in the network, and (2) off-diagonal sparsity, which constrains the magnitude of cross-product price sensitivities, and (3) a new notion of spectral sparsity, which constrains the asymptotic decay of a similarity metric on network nodes. We propose a dynamic pricing-and-learning policy that combines the optimism-in-the-face-of-uncertainty and PAC-Bayesian approaches, and show that this policy achieves asymptotically optimal performance in terms of $N$ and $T$. We also show that in the case of spectral and off-diagonal sparsity, the seller can have a pseudo-regret linear in $N$, even when the network is dense.
Exploiting Expert-guided Symmetry Detection in Markov Decision Processes
Angelotti, Giorgio, Drougard, Nicolas, Chanel, Caroline P. C.
Offline estimation of the dynamical model of a Markov Decision Process (MDP) is a non-trivial task that greatly depends on the data available to the learning phase. Sometimes the dynamics of the model is invariant with respect to some transformations of the current state and action. Recent works showed that an expert-guided pipeline relying on Density Estimation methods as Deep Neural Network based Normalizing Flows effectively detects this structure in deterministic environments, both categorical and continuous-valued. The acquired knowledge can be exploited to augment the original data set, leading eventually to a reduction in the distributional shift between the true and the learnt model. In this work we extend the paradigm to also tackle non deterministic MDPs, in particular 1) we propose a detection threshold in categorical environments based on statistical distances, 2) we introduce a benchmark of the distributional shift in continuous environments based on the Wilcoxon signed-rank statistical test and 3) we show that the former results lead to a performance improvement when solving the learnt MDP and then applying the optimal policy in the real environment.
An overview of active learning methods for insurance with fairness appreciation
Elie, Romuald, Hillairet, Caroline, Hu, François, Juillard, Marc
This paper addresses and solves some challenges in the adoption of machine learning in insurance with the democratization of model deployment. The first challenge is reducing the labelling effort (hence focusing on the data quality) with the help of active learning, a feedback loop between the model inference and an oracle: as in insurance the unlabeled data is usually abundant, active learning can become a significant asset in reducing the labelling cost. For that purpose, this paper sketches out various classical active learning methodologies before studying their empirical impact on both synthetic and real datasets. Another key challenge in insurance is the fairness issue in model inferences. We will introduce and integrate a post-processing fairness for multi-class tasks in this active learning framework to solve these two issues. Finally numerical experiments on unfair datasets highlight that the proposed setup presents a good compromise between model precision and fairness.
Improving evidential deep learning via multi-task learning
The Evidential regression network (ENet) estimates a continuous target and its predictive uncertainty without costly Bayesian model averaging. However, it is possible that the target is inaccurately predicted due to the gradient shrinkage problem of the original loss function of the ENet, the negative log marginal likelihood (NLL) loss. In this paper, the objective is to improve the prediction accuracy of the ENet while maintaining its efficient uncertainty estimation by resolving the gradient shrinkage problem. A multi-task learning (MTL) framework, referred to as MT-ENet, is proposed to accomplish this aim. In the MTL, we define the Lipschitz modified mean squared error (MSE) loss function as another loss and add it to the existing NLL loss. The Lipschitz modified MSE loss is designed to mitigate the gradient conflict with the NLL loss by dynamically adjusting its Lipschitz constant. By doing so, the Lipschitz MSE loss does not disturb the uncertainty estimation of the NLL loss. The MT-ENet enhances the predictive accuracy of the ENet without losing uncertainty estimation capability on the synthetic dataset and real-world benchmarks, including drug-target affinity (DTA) regression. Furthermore, the MT-ENet shows remarkable calibration and out-of-distribution detection capability on the DTA benchmarks.
Tree density estimation
Györfi, László, Kontorovich, Aryeh, Weiss, Roi
A natural strategy for mitigating the curse of dimensionality in estimating probability distributions is to employ lowcomplexity family of approximation distributions. For discrete distributions, Chow and Liu [5] suggested a family of tree-based approximations and gave an efficient maximum-likelihood estimator based on Kruskal's optimal spanning tree algorithm [14]. We stress that this approach makes no structural assumptions about the sampling distribution, but rather constitutes a modeling choice. Consequently, in this paradigm, the goal is to approximate the optimal-tree distribution from the data, without any guarantees on how well the latter approximates the true sampling distribution. Extensions of the Chow-Liu approach to continuous distributions were studied by Bach and Jordan [1] and by Liu et al. [16] under various assumptions.
Distillation of RL Policies with Formal Guarantees via Variational Abstraction of Markov Decision Processes (Technical Report)
Delgrange, Florent, Nowé, Ann, Pérez, Guillermo A.
We consider the challenge of policy simplification and verification in the context of policies learned through reinforcement learning (RL) in continuous environments. In well-behaved settings, RL algorithms have convergence guarantees in the limit. While these guarantees are valuable, they are insufficient for safety-critical applications. Furthermore, they are lost when applying advanced techniques such as deep-RL. To recover guarantees when applying advanced RL algorithms to more complex environments with (i) reachability, (ii) safety-constrained reachability, or (iii) discounted-reward objectives, we build upon the DeepMDP framework introduced by Gelada et al. to derive new bisimulation bounds between the unknown environment and a learned discrete latent model of it. Our bisimulation bounds enable the application of formal methods for Markov decision processes. Finally, we show how one can use a policy obtained via state-of-the-art RL to efficiently train a variational autoencoder that yields a discrete latent model with provably approximately correct bisimulation guarantees. Additionally, we obtain a distilled version of the policy for the latent model.
Learning Reward Machines: A Study in Partially Observable Reinforcement Learning
Icarte, Rodrigo Toro, Waldie, Ethan, Klassen, Toryn Q., Valenzano, Richard, Castro, Margarita P., McIlraith, Sheila A.
Reinforcement learning (RL) is a central problem in artificial intelligence. This problem consists of defining artificial agents that can learn optimal behaviour by interacting with an environment -- where the optimal behaviour is defined with respect to a reward signal that the agent seeks to maximize. Reward machines (RMs) provide a structured, automata-based representation of a reward function that enables an RL agent to decompose an RL problem into structured subproblems that can be efficiently learned via off-policy learning. Here we show that RMs can be learned from experience, instead of being specified by the user, and that the resulting problem decomposition can be used to effectively solve partially observable RL problems. We pose the task of learning RMs as a discrete optimization problem where the objective is to find an RM that decomposes the problem into a set of subproblems such that the combination of their optimal memoryless policies is an optimal policy for the original problem. We show the effectiveness of this approach on three partially observable domains, where it significantly outperforms A3C, PPO, and ACER, and discuss its advantages, limitations, and broader potential.