Enquiries concerning the underlying mechanisms and the emergent properties of a biological brain have a long history of theoretical postulates and experimental findings. Today, the scientific community tends to converge to a single interpretation of the brain's cognitive underpinnings -- that it is a Bayesian inference machine. This contemporary view has naturally been a strong driving force in recent developments around computational and cognitive neurosciences. Of particular interest is the brain's ability to process the passage of time -- one of the fundamental dimensions of our experience. How can we explain empirical data on human time perception using the Bayesian brain hypothesis? Can we replicate human estimation biases using Bayesian models? What insights can the agent-based machine learning models provide for the study of this subject? In this chapter, we review some of the recent advancements in the field of time perception and discuss the role of Bayesian processing in the construction of temporal models.

We'll be comparing the results of all the algorithms and making a good analytical approach. What are you waiting for?

In order to develop complex relationships between their inputs and outputs, deep neural networks train and adjust large number of parameters. To make these networks work at high accuracy, vast amounts of data are needed. Sometimes, however, the quantity of data needed is not present or obtainable for training. Neuron-specific dropout (NSDropout) is a tool to address this problem. NSDropout looks at both the training pass, and validation pass, of a layer in a model. By comparing the average values produced by each neuron for each class in a data set, the network is able to drop targeted units. The layer is able to predict what features, or noise, the model is looking at during testing that isn't present when looking at samples from validation. Unlike dropout, the "thinned" networks cannot be "unthinned" for testing. Neuron-specific dropout has proved to achieve similar, if not better, testing accuracy with far less data than traditional methods including dropout and other regularization methods. Experimentation has shown that neuron-specific dropout reduces the chance of a network overfitting and reduces the need for large training samples on supervised learning tasks in image recognition, all while producing best-in-class results.

Multi-fidelity modeling and calibration are data fusion tasks that ubiquitously arise in engineering design. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach based on latent-map Gaussian processes (LMGPs) that enables efficient and accurate data fusion. In our approach, we convert data fusion into a latent space learning problem where the relations among different data sources are automatically learned. This conversion endows our approach with attractive advantages such as increased accuracy, reduced costs, flexibility to jointly fuse any number of data sources, and ability to visualize correlations between data sources. This visualization allows the user to detect model form errors or determine the optimum strategy for high-fidelity emulation by fitting LMGP only to the subset of the data sources that are well-correlated. We also develop a new kernel function that enables LMGPs to not only build a probabilistic multi-fidelity surrogate but also estimate calibration parameters with high accuracy and consistency. The implementation and use of our approach are considerably simpler and less prone to numerical issues compared to existing technologies. We demonstrate the benefits of LMGP-based data fusion by comparing its performance against competing methods on a wide range of examples.

Reinforcement Learning and recently Deep Reinforcement Learning are popular methods for solving sequential decision making problems modeled as Markov Decision Processes. RL modeling of a problem and selecting algorithms and hyper-parameters require careful considerations as different configurations may entail completely different performances. These considerations are mainly the task of RL experts; however, RL is progressively becoming popular in other fields where the researchers and system designers are not RL experts. Besides, many modeling decisions, such as defining state and action space, size of batches and frequency of batch updating, and number of timesteps are typically made manually. For these reasons, automating different components of RL framework is of great importance and it has attracted much attention in recent years. Automated RL provides a framework in which different components of RL including MDP modeling, algorithm selection and hyper-parameter optimization are modeled and defined automatically. In this article, we explore the literature and present recent work that can be used in automated RL. Moreover, we discuss the challenges, open questions and research directions in AutoRL.

The goal of this paper is to investigate a control theoretic analysis of linear stochastic iterative algorithm and temporal difference (TD) learning. TD-learning is a linear stochastic iterative algorithm to estimate the value function of a given policy for a Markov decision process, which is one of the most popular and fundamental reinforcement learning algorithms. While there has been a series of successful works in theoretical analysis of TD-learning, it was not until recently that researchers found some guarantees on its statistical efficiency. In this paper, we propose a control theoretic finite-time analysis TD-learning, which exploits standard notions in linear system control communities. Therefore, the proposed work provides additional insights on TD-learning and reinforcement learning with simple concepts and analysis tools in control theory.

A common approach to prediction and planning in partially observable domains is to use recurrent neural networks (RNNs), which ideally develop and maintain a latent memory about hidden, task-relevant factors. We hypothesize that many of these hidden factors in the physical world are constant over time, changing only sparsely. To study this hypothesis, we propose Gated $L_0$ Regularized Dynamics (GateL0RD), a novel recurrent architecture that incorporates the inductive bias to maintain stable, sparsely changing latent states. The bias is implemented by means of a novel internal gating function and a penalty on the $L_0$ norm of latent state changes. We demonstrate that GateL0RD can compete with or outperform state-of-the-art RNNs in a variety of partially observable prediction and control tasks. GateL0RD tends to encode the underlying generative factors of the environment, ignores spurious temporal dependencies, and generalizes better, improving sampling efficiency and overall performance in model-based planning and reinforcement learning tasks. Moreover, we show that the developing latent states can be easily interpreted, which is a step towards better explainability in RNNs.

Welcome to the online version Bayesian Modeling and Computation in Python. If you'd like a physical copy it can purchased from the publisher here or on Amazon. This site contains an online version of the book and all the code used to produce the book. This includes the visible code, and all code used to generate figures, tables, etc. To run the code you will need to install the correct packages in a computational environment.

Finding low dimensional representation of data from long-timescale trajectories of biomolecular processes such as protein-folding or ligand-receptor binding is of fundamental importance and kinetic models such as Markov modeling have proven useful in describing the kinetics of these systems. Recently, an unsupervised machine learning technique called VAMPNet was introduced to learn the low dimensional representation and linear dynamical model in an end-to-end manner. VAMPNet is based on variational approach to Markov processes (VAMP) and relies on neural networks to learn the coarse-grained dynamics. In this contribution, we combine VAMPNet and graph neural networks to generate an end-to-end framework to efficiently learn high-level dynamics and metastable states from the long-timescale molecular dynamics trajectories. This method bears the advantages of graph representation learning and uses graph message passing operations to generate an embedding for each datapoint which is used in the VAMPNet to generate a coarse-grained representation. This type of molecular representation results in a higher resolution and more interpretable Markov model than the standard VAMPNet enabling a more detailed kinetic study of the biomolecular processes. Our GraphVAMPNet approach is also enhanced with an attention mechanism to find the important residues for classification into different metastable states.

Large-scale labeled dataset is the indispensable fuel that ignites the AI revolution as we see today. Most such datasets are constructed using crowdsourcing services such as Amazon Mechanical Turk which provides noisy labels from non-experts at a fair price. The sheer size of such datasets mandates that it is only feasible to collect a few labels per data point. We formulate the problem of test-time label aggregation as a statistical estimation problem of inferring the expected voting score. By imitating workers with supervised learners and using them in a doubly robust estimation framework, we prove that the variance of estimation can be substantially reduced, even if the learner is a poor approximation. Synthetic and real-world experiments show that by combining the doubly robust approach with adaptive worker/item selection rules, we often need much lower label cost to achieve nearly the same accuracy as in the ideal world where all workers label all data points.