Destination prediction has been a critical topic in transportation research, and there are a large number of studies. However, almost all existing studies are based on high predictability data conditions while pay less attention to the data condition with low predictability, where the regularity of single individuals is not exposed. Based on a certain period of observation, there is a fact that individuals may choose destinations beyond observation, which we call "potential destinations". The number of potential destinations is very large and can't be ignored for the data condition with low predictability formed by short-term observation.To reveal the choice pattern of potential destination of individuals under the data condition with low predictability, we propose a global optimization method based on knowledge graph embedding. First, we joint the trip data of all individuals by constructing Trip Knowledge Graph(TKG). Next, we optimize the general algorithm of knowledge graph embedding for our data and task in training strategy and objective function, then implement it on TKG. It can achieve global optimization for association paths that exist between almost any two entities in TKG. On this basis, a method for potential destination prediction is proposed, giving the possible ranking of unobserved destinations for each individual. In addition, we improve the performance by fusing static statistical information that is not passed to TKG. Finally, we validate our method in a real-world dataset, and the prediction results are highly consistent with individuals' potential destination choice behaviour.

This paper addresses the problem of precisely estimating the parameters of a stochastic model corresponding to branching processes. A branching process is a stochastic process consisting of collections of random variables indexed by the natural numbers. Branching processes are often used to describe population models Jagers (1989) and Athreya and Ney (2012); for example, models in the population genetics showing the genetic drift Burden and Simon (2016) Chen et al. (2017). In contrast to statistical approaches, branching processes enable the study of the dynamics of cell evolution and, as a consistence, have become a popular approach to cancer cell evolution research West et al., 2016. However, particularly in the case of cancer cell evolution, as well as in branching processes in general, the ultimate extinction of a population often occurs Devroye (1998). It is for this reason that with the initial uniform distribution of parameters, branching processes models tend to yield unevenly distributed data consisting of sparse and dense regions. The stochastic nature of the data is an another obstacle in estimating the parameters of a branching processes model, especially in the case of cancer cell evolution Nagornov et al. (2021). Moreover, simulations, based on a model of cell mutations, population evolution, and tumor/cancer subpopulations, commonly lead to the emergence of many clones and rarely to the appearance of cancer cells.

Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) software is software for producing forgeries and imitations of data (aka synthetic data, fake data). Human beings have been making fakes, with good or evil intent, of almost everything they possibly can, since the beginning of the human race. Thus, perhaps not too surprisingly, GAN software has been widely used since it was first proposed in this amazingly recent 2014 paper. To gauge how widely GAN software has been used so far, see, for example, this 2019 article entitled "18 Impressive Applications of Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs)" Sounds (voices, music,…), Images (realistic pictures, paintings, drawings, handwriting, …), Text,etc. The forgeries can be tweaked so that they range from being very similar to the originals, to being whimsical exaggerations thereof.

An unaddressed challenge in human-AI coordination is to enable AI agents to exploit the semantic relationships between the features of actions and the features of observations. Humans take advantage of these relationships in highly intuitive ways. For instance, in the absence of a shared language, we might point to the object we desire or hold up our fingers to indicate how many objects we want. To address this challenge, we investigate the effect of network architecture on the propensity of learning algorithms to exploit these semantic relationships. Across a procedurally generated coordination task, we find that attention-based architectures that jointly process a featurized representation of observations and actions have a better inductive bias for zero-shot coordination. Through fine-grained evaluation and scenario analysis, we show that the resulting policies are human-interpretable. Moreover, such agents coordinate with people without training on any human data.

Applications of neural networks have achieved great success in various fields. A major extension of the standard neural networks is to make them stochastic, namely, to make the output a random function of the input. In a broad sense, stochastic neural networks include neural networks trained with dropout (Srivastava et al., 2014; Gal & Ghahramani, 2016), Bayesian networks (Mackay, 1992), variational autoencoders (VAE) (Kingma & Welling, 2013), and generative adversarial networks (Goodfellow et al., 2014). There are many reasons why one wants to make a neural network stochastic. Two main reasons are (1) regularization and (2) distribution modeling.

Random partition models are widely used in Bayesian methods for various clustering tasks, such as mixture models, topic models, and community detection problems. While the number of clusters induced by random partition models has been studied extensively, another important model property regarding the balancedness of cluster sizes has been largely neglected. We formulate a framework to define and theoretically study the balancedness of exchangeable random partition models, by analyzing how a model assigns probabilities to partitions with different levels of balancedness. We demonstrate that the "rich-get-richer" characteristic of many existing popular random partition models is an inevitable consequence of two common assumptions: product-form exchangeability and projectivity. We propose a principled way to compare the balancedness of random partition models, which gives a better understanding of what model works better and what doesn't for different applications. We also introduce the "rich-get-poorer" random partition models and illustrate their application to entity resolution tasks.

Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) RL maximizes a combination of the original task reward and an entropy reward. It is believed that the regularization imposed by entropy, on both policy improvement and policy evaluation, together contributes to good exploration, training convergence, and robustness of learned policies. This paper takes a closer look at entropy as an intrinsic reward, by conducting various ablation studies on soft actor-critic (SAC), a popular representative of MaxEnt RL. Our findings reveal that in general, entropy rewards should be applied with caution to policy evaluation. On one hand, the entropy reward, like any other intrinsic reward, could obscure the main task reward if it is not properly managed. We identify some failure cases of the entropy reward especially in episodic Markov decision processes (MDPs), where it could cause the policy to be overly optimistic or pessimistic. On the other hand, our large-scale empirical study shows that using entropy regularization alone in policy improvement, leads to comparable or even better performance and robustness than using it in both policy improvement and policy evaluation. Based on these observations, we recommend either normalizing the entropy reward to a zero mean (SACZero), or simply removing it from policy evaluation (SACLite) for better practical results.

Safe Policy Improvement (SPI) aims at provable guarantees that a learned policy is at least approximately as good as a given baseline policy. Building on SPI with Soft Baseline Bootstrapping (Soft-SPIBB) by Nadjahi et al., we identify theoretical issues in their approach, provide a corrected theory, and derive a new algorithm that is provably safe on finite Markov Decision Processes (MDP). Additionally, we provide a heuristic algorithm that exhibits the best performance among many state of the art SPI algorithms on two different benchmarks. Furthermore, we introduce a taxonomy of SPI algorithms and empirically show an interesting property of two classes of SPI algorithms: while the mean performance of algorithms that incorporate the uncertainty as a penalty on the action-value is higher, actively restricting the set of policies more consistently produces good policies and is, thus, safer.

Planning based on long and short term time series forecasts is a common practice across many industries. In this context, temporal aggregation and reconciliation techniques have been useful in improving forecasts, reducing model uncertainty, and providing a coherent forecast across different time horizons. However, an underlying assumption spanning all these techniques is the complete availability of data across all levels of the temporal hierarchy, while this offers mathematical convenience but most of the time low frequency data is partially completed and it is not available while forecasting. On the other hand, high frequency data can significantly change in a scenario like the COVID pandemic and this change can be used to improve forecasts that will otherwise significantly diverge from long term actuals. We propose a dynamic reconciliation method whereby we formulate the problem of informing low frequency forecasts based on high frequency actuals as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) allowing for the fact that we do not have complete information about the dynamics of the process. This allows us to have the best long term estimates based on the most recent data available even if the low frequency cycles have only been partially completed. The MDP has been solved using a Time Differenced Reinforcement learning (TDRL) approach with customizable actions and improves the long terms forecasts dramatically as compared to relying solely on historical low frequency data. The result also underscores the fact that while low frequency forecasts can improve the high frequency forecasts as mentioned in the temporal reconciliation literature (based on the assumption that low frequency forecasts have lower noise to signal ratio) the high frequency forecasts can also be used to inform the low frequency forecasts.

Breast cancer is in the most common malignant tumor in women. It accounted for 30% of new malignant tumor cases. Although the incidence of breast cancer remains high around the world, the mortality rate has been continuously reduced. This is mainly due to recent developments in molecular biology technology and improved level of comprehensive diagnosis and standard treatment. Early detection by mammography is an integral part of that. The most common breast abnormalities that may indicate breast cancer are masses and calcifications. Previous detection approaches usually obtain relatively high sensitivity but unsatisfactory specificity. We will investigate an approach that applies the discrete wavelet transform and Fourier transform to parse the images and extracts statistical features that characterize an image's content, such as the mean intensity and the skewness of the intensity. A naive Bayesian classifier uses these features to classify the images. We expect to achieve an optimal high specificity.