Learning Graphical Models
Trusted Approximate Policy Iteration with Bisimulation Metrics
Bisimulation metrics define a distance measure between states of a Markov decision process (MDP) based on a comparison of reward sequences. Due to this property they provide theoretical guarantees in value function approximation. In this work we first prove that bisimulation metrics can be defined via any $p$-Wasserstein metric for $p\geq 1$. Then we describe an approximate policy iteration (API) procedure that uses $\epsilon$-aggregation with $\pi$-bisimulation and prove performance bounds for continuous state spaces. We bound the difference between $\pi$-bisimulation metrics in terms of the change in the policies themselves. Based on these theoretical results, we design an API($\alpha$) procedure that employs conservative policy updates and enjoys better performance bounds than the naive API approach. In addition, we propose a novel trust region approach which circumvents the requirement to explicitly solve a constrained optimization problem. Finally, we provide experimental evidence of improved stability compared to non-conservative alternatives in simulated continuous control.
Introduction to Machine Learning with TensorFlow
The Google Brain team created TensorFlow, an open-source library. It was designed for activities that need a lot of numerical computations. TensorFlow was designed specifically for machine learning and deep learning networks. TensorFlow ran faster than python code thanks to the use of C/C as a backend. A data flow graph is a standard programming model for parallel processing that is used by tensor flow applications. Two computational units are present in data flow graphs. That's what nodes and edges are. The mathematical operations are represented by nodes.
Free Book: Foundations of Data Science (from Microsoft Research Lab) - DataScienceCentral.com
Computer science as an academic discipline began in the 1960s. Emphasis was on programming languages, compilers, operating systems, and the mathematical theory that supported these areas. Courses in theoretical computer science covered finite automata, regular expressions, context-free languages, and computability. In the 1970s, the study of algorithms was added as an important component of theory. The emphasis was on making computers useful.
Identifying Self-Admitted Technical Debt in Issue Tracking Systems using Machine Learning
Li, Yikun, Soliman, Mohamed, Avgeriou, Paris
Technical debt is a metaphor indicating sub-optimal solutions implemented for short-term benefits by sacrificing the long-term maintainability and evolvability of software. A special type of technical debt is explicitly admitted by software engineers (e.g. using a TODO comment); this is called Self-Admitted Technical Debt or SATD. Most work on automatically identifying SATD focuses on source code comments. In addition to source code comments, issue tracking systems have shown to be another rich source of SATD, but there are no approaches specifically for automatically identifying SATD in issues. In this paper, we first create a training dataset by collecting and manually analyzing 4,200 issues (that break down to 23,180 sections of issues) from seven open-source projects (i.e., Camel, Chromium, Gerrit, Hadoop, HBase, Impala, and Thrift) using two popular issue tracking systems (i.e., Jira and Google Monorail). We then propose and optimize an approach for automatically identifying SATD in issue tracking systems using machine learning. Our findings indicate that: 1) our approach outperforms baseline approaches by a wide margin with regard to the F1-score; 2) transferring knowledge from suitable datasets can improve the predictive performance of our approach; 3) extracted SATD keywords are intuitive and potentially indicating types and indicators of SATD; 4) projects using different issue tracking systems have less common SATD keywords compared to projects using the same issue tracking system; 5) a small amount of training data is needed to achieve good accuracy.
Importance Weighting Approach in Kernel Bayes' Rule
Xu, Liyuan, Chen, Yutian, Doucet, Arnaud, Gretton, Arthur
We study a nonparametric approach to Bayesian computation via feature means, where the expectation of prior features is updated to yield expected posterior features, based on regression from kernel or neural net features of the observations. All quantities involved in the Bayesian update are learned from observed data, making the method entirely model-free. The resulting algorithm is a novel instance of a kernel Bayes' rule (KBR). Our approach is based on importance weighting, which results in superior numerical stability to the existing approach to KBR, which requires operator inversion. We show the convergence of the estimator using a novel consistency analysis on the importance weighting estimator in the infinity norm. We evaluate our KBR on challenging synthetic benchmarks, including a filtering problem with a state-space model involving high dimensional image observations. The proposed method yields uniformly better empirical performance than the existing KBR, and competitive performance with other competing methods.
De-Sequentialized Monte Carlo: a parallel-in-time particle smoother
Corenflos, Adrien, Chopin, Nicolas, Särkkä, Simo
Particle smoothers are SMC (Sequential Monte Carlo) algorithms designed to approximate the joint distribution of the states given observations from a state-space model. We propose dSMC (de-Sequentialized Monte Carlo), a new particle smoother that is able to process $T$ observations in $\mathcal{O}(\log T)$ time on parallel architecture. This compares favourably with standard particle smoothers, the complexity of which is linear in $T$. We derive $\mathcal{L}_p$ convergence results for dSMC, with an explicit upper bound, polynomial in $T$. We then discuss how to reduce the variance of the smoothing estimates computed by dSMC by (i) designing good proposal distributions for sampling the particles at the initialization of the algorithm, as well as by (ii) using lazy resampling to increase the number of particles used in dSMC. Finally, we design a particle Gibbs sampler based on dSMC, which is able to perform parameter inference in a state-space model at a $\mathcal{O}(\log(T))$ cost on parallel hardware.
Functional Mixtures-of-Experts
Chamroukhi, Faïcel, Pham, Nhat Thien, Hoang, Van Hà, McLachlan, Geoffrey J.
We consider the statistical analysis of heterogeneous data for clustering and prediction purposes, in situations where the observations include functions, typically time series. We extend the modeling with Mixtures-of-Experts (ME), as a framework of choice in modeling heterogeneity in data for prediction and clustering with vectorial observations, to this functional data analysis context. We first present a new family of functional ME (FME) models, in which the predictors are potentially noisy observations, from entire functions, and the data generating process of the pair predictor and the real response, is governed by a hidden discrete variable representing an unknown partition, leading to complex situations to which the standard ME framework is not adapted. Second, we provide sparse and interpretable functional representations of the FME models, thanks to Lasso-like regularizations, notably on the derivatives of the underlying functional parameters of the model, projected onto a set of continuous basis functions. We develop dedicated expectation--maximization algorithms for Lasso-like regularized maximum-likelihood parameter estimation strategies, to encourage sparse and interpretable solutions. The proposed FME models and the developed EM-Lasso algorithms are studied in simulated scenarios and in applications to two real data sets, and the obtained results demonstrate their performance in accurately capturing complex nonlinear relationships between the response and the functional predictor, and in clustering.
Deep End-to-end Causal Inference
Geffner, Tomas, Antoran, Javier, Foster, Adam, Gong, Wenbo, Ma, Chao, Kiciman, Emre, Sharma, Amit, Lamb, Angus, Kukla, Martin, Pawlowski, Nick, Allamanis, Miltiadis, Zhang, Cheng
Causal inference is essential for data-driven decision making across domains such as business engagement, medical treatment or policy making. However, research on causal discovery and inference has evolved separately, and the combination of the two domains is not trivial. In this work, we develop Deep End-to-end Causal Inference (DECI), a single flow-based method that takes in observational data and can perform both causal discovery and inference, including conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation. We provide a theoretical guarantee that DECI can recover the ground truth causal graph under mild assumptions. In addition, our method can handle heterogeneous, real-world, mixed-type data with missing values, allowing for both continuous and discrete treatment decisions. Moreover, the design principle of our method can generalize beyond DECI, providing a general End-to-end Causal Inference (ECI) recipe, which enables different ECI frameworks to be built using existing methods. Our results show the superior performance of DECI when compared to relevant baselines for both causal discovery and (C)ATE estimation in over a thousand experiments on both synthetic datasets and other causal machine learning benchmark datasets.
Maximum Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation: Robustness to Outliers
Nair, Deebul S., Hochgeschwender, Nico, Olivares-Mendez, Miguel A.
We benchmark the robustness of maximum likelihood based uncertainty estimation methods to outliers in training data for regression tasks. Outliers or noisy labels in training data results in degraded performances as well as incorrect estimation of uncertainty. We propose the use of a heavy-tailed distribution (Laplace distribution) to improve the robustness to outliers. This property is evaluated using standard regression benchmarks and on a high-dimensional regression task of monocular depth estimation, both containing outliers. In particular, heavy-tailed distribution based maximum likelihood provides better uncertainty estimates, better separation in uncertainty for out-of-distribution data, as well as better detection of adversarial attacks in the presence of outliers.
A Survey of Methods for Automated Algorithm Configuration
Schede, Elias, Brandt, Jasmin, Tornede, Alexander, Wever, Marcel, Bengs, Viktor, Hüllermeier, Eyke, Tierney, Kevin
Algorithm configuration (AC) is concerned with the automated search of the most suitable parameter configuration of a parametrized algorithm. There is currently a wide variety of AC problem variants and methods proposed in the literature. Existing reviews do not take into account all derivatives of the AC problem, nor do they offer a complete classification scheme. To this end, we introduce taxonomies to describe the AC problem and features of configuration methods, respectively. We review existing AC literature within the lens of our taxonomies, outline relevant design choices of configuration approaches, contrast methods and problem variants against each other, and describe the state of AC in industry. Finally, our review provides researchers and practitioners with a look at future research directions in the field of AC.