We focus on the problem of modeling deterministic equations over continuous variables in discrete Bayesian networks. This is typically achieved by a discretization of both input and output variables and a degenerate quantification of the corresponding conditional probability tables. This approach, based on classical probabilities, cannot properly model the information loss induced by the discretization. We show that a reliable modeling of such epistemic uncertainty can be instead achieved by credal sets, i.e., convex sets of probability mass functions. This transforms the original Bayesian network in a credal network, possibly returning interval-valued inferences, that are robust with respect to the information loss induced by the discretisation. Algorithmic strategies for an optimal choice of the discretisation bins are also provided.

In a variety of online settings involving interaction with end-users it is critical for the systems to adapt to changes in user preference. User preferences on items tend to change over time due to a variety of factors such as change in context, the task being performed, or other short-term or long-term external factors. Recommender systems, in particular need to be able to capture these dynamics in user preferences in order to remain tuned to the most current interests of users. In this work we present a recommendation framework which takes into account the dynamics of user preferences. We propose an approach based on Hidden Markov Models (HMM) to identify change-points in the sequence of user interactions which reflect significant changes in preference according to the sequential behavior of all the users in the data. The proposed framework leverages the identified change points to generate recommendations using a sequence-aware non-negative matrix factorization model. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of the HMM-based change detection method as compared to standard baseline methods. Additionally, we evaluate the performance of the proposed recommendation method and show that it compares favorably to state-of-the-art sequence-aware recommendation models.

In this paper, we present a Bayesian approach for finite mixture models based on three-parameter bivariate Beta distributions. The estimation of the parameters is based on the Monte Carlo simulation technique of Gibbs sampling mixed with a Metropolis-Hastings step. The performance of our Bayesian algorithm is verified by several synthetic datasets and in the end, the feasibility of the proposed method is demonstrated by experimenting on some real datasets in which, the results are compared with those obtained by implementing the same approach using Gaussian mixture model.

Bayesian networks (BNs) encode conditional independence to avoid combinatorial explosion on the number of variables, but are subject to exponential growth of space and inference time on the number of causes per effect variable. Among space-efficient local models, we focus on the Non-Impeding Noisy-AND Tree (NIN-AND Tree or NAT) models due to their multiple merits, and on NAT-modeled BNs where each multi-parent variable family may be encoded as a NAT-model. Although BN inference is generally exponential on treewidth, inference is tractable with NAT-modeled BNs of high treewidth and low density. In this work, we present the first study to learn NAT-modeled BNs from data. We apply the MDL principle to learning NAT-modeled BNs by developing a corresponding scoring function, and we couple it with heuristic structure search.

Probabilistic graphical models have been successfully applied in a lot of different fields, e.g., medical diagnosis and bio-statistics. Multiple specific extensions have been developed to handle, e.g., time-series data or Gaussian distributed random variables. In the case that handles both Gaussian variables and time-series data, downsides are that the models still have a discrete time-scale, evidence needs to be propagated through the graph and the conditional relationships between the variables are bound to be linear. This paper converts two probabilistic graphical models (the Markov chain and the hidden Markov model) into Gaussian processes by constructing covariance and mean functions, that encode the characteristics of the probabilistic graphical models. Our developed Gaussian process based formalism has the advantage of supporting a continuous time scale, direct inference from any time point to the other without propagation of evidence and flexibility to modify the covariance function if needed.

Solving Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) generally is computationally intractable. In this paper, we study a special POMDP class, namely informative POMDPs, where each observation provides good albeit incomplete information about world states. We propose two ways to accelerate value iteration algorithm for such POMDPs. First, dynamic programming (DP) updates can be carried out over a relatively small subset of belief space. Conducting DP updates over subspace leads to two advantages: representational savings in space and computational savings in time. Second, a point-based procedure is used to cut down the number of iterations for value iteration over subspace to converge. Empirical studies are presented to demonstrate various computational gains.

We describe an approximate dynamic programming algorithm for partially observable Markov decision processes represented in factored form. Two complementary forms of approximation are used to simplify a piecewise linear and convex value function, where each linear facet of the function is represented compactly by an algebraic decision diagram.

We introduce a generalized dual decomposition bound for computing the maximum expected utility of influence diagrams based on the dual decomposition method generalized to $L p$ space. The main goal is to devise an approximation scheme free from translations required by existing variational approaches while exploiting the local structure of sum of utility functions as well as the conditional independence of probability functions. In this work, the generalized dual decomposition method is applied to the algebraic framework called valuation algebra for influence diagrams which handles probability and expected utility as a pair. The proposed approach allows a sequential decision problem to be decomposed as a collection of sub-decision problems of bounded complexity and the upper bound of maximum expected utility to be computed by combining the local expected utilities. Thus, it has a flexible control of space and time complexity for computing the bound. In addition, the upper bounds can be further minimized by reparameterizing the utility functions. Since the global objective function for the minimization is nonconvex, we present a gradient-based local search algorithm in which the outer loop controls the randomization of the initial configurations and the inner loop tightens the upper-bound based on block coordinate descent with gradients perturbed by a random noise. The experimental evaluation demonstrates highlights of the proposed approach on finite horizon MDP/POMDP instances.

Interactive partially observable Markov decision processes (I-POMDPs) provide a principled framework for planning and acting in a partially observable, stochastic and multi-agent environment, extending POMDPs to multi-agent settings by including models of other agents in the state space and forming a hierarchical belief structure. In order to predict other agents' actions using I-POMDP, we propose an approach that effectively uses Bayesian inference and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampling to learn others' intentional models which ascribe to them beliefs, preferences and rationality in action selection. Empirical results show that our algorithm accurately learns models of other agents and has superior performance when compared to other methods. Our approach serves as a generalized reinforcement learning algorithm that learns other agents' beliefs, and transition, observation and reward functions.

Structure learning is a fundamental and challenging issue in dealing with Bayesian networks. In this paper we introduce a two-step clustering-based strategy, which can automatically generate prior information from data in order to further improve the accuracy and time efficiency of state-of-the-art algorithms in Bayesian network structure learning. Our clustering-based strategy is composed of two steps. In the first step, we divide the potential nodes into several groups via clustering analysis and apply Bayesian network structure learning to obtain some pre-existing arcs within each cluster. In the second step, with all the within-cluster arcs being well preserved, we learn the between-cluster structure of the given network. Experimental results on benchmark data sets show that a wide range of structure learning algorithms benefit from the proposed clustering-based strategy in terms of both accuracy and efficiency.