The hidden Markov model (HMM) is a classic modeling tool with a wide swath of applications. Its inception considered observations restricted to a finite alphabet, but it was quickly extended to multivariate continuous distributions. In this article, we further extend the HMM from mixtures of normal distributions in $d$-dimensional Euclidean space to general Gaussian measure mixtures in locally convex topological spaces. The main innovation is the use of the Onsager-Machlup functional as a proxy for the probability density function in infinite dimensional spaces. This allows for choice of a Cameron-Martin space suitable for a given application. We demonstrate the versatility of this methodology by applying it to simulated diffusion processes such as Brownian and fractional Brownian sample paths as well as the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Our methodology is applied to the identification of sleep states from overnight polysomnography time series data with the aim of diagnosing Obstructive Sleep Apnea in pediatric patients. It is also applied to a series of annual cumulative snowfall curves from 1940 to 1990 in the city of Edmonton, Alberta.

Fragility hip fracture increases morbidity and mortality in older adult patients, especially within the first year. Identification of patients at high risk of death facilitates modification of associated perioperative factors that can reduce mortality. Various machine learning algorithms have been developed and are widely used in healthcare research, particularly for mortality prediction. This study aimed to develop and internally validate 7 machine learning models to predict 1-year mortality after fragility hip fracture. This retrospective study included patients with fragility hip fractures from a single center (Siriraj Hospital, Bangkok, Thailand) from July 2016 to October 2018. A total of 492 patients were enrolled. They were randomly categorized into a training group (344 cases, 70%) or a testing group (148 cases, 30%). Various machine learning techniques were used: the Gradient Boosting Classifier (GB), Random Forests Classifier (RF), Artificial Neural Network Classifier (ANN), Logistic Regression Classifier (LR), Naive Bayes Classifier (NB), Support Vector Machine Classifier (SVM), and K-Nearest Neighbors Classifier (KNN). All models were internally validated by evaluating their performance and the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). For the testing dataset, the accuracies were GB model = 0.93, RF model = 0.95, ANN model = 0.94, LR model = 0.91, NB model = 0.89, SVM model = 0.90, and KNN model = 0.90. All models achieved high AUCs that ranged between 0.81 and 0.99. The RF model also provided a negative predictive value of 0.96, a positive predictive value of 0.93, a specificity of 0.99, and a sensitivity of 0.68. Our machine learning approach facilitated the successful development of an accurate model to predict 1-year mortality after fragility hip fracture. Several machine learning algorithms (eg, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest) had the potential to provide high predictive performance based on the clinical parameters of each patient. The web application is available at www.hipprediction.com . External validation in a larger group of patients or in different hospital settings is warranted to evaluate the clinical utility of this tool. Thai Clinical Trials Registry (22 February 2021; reg. no. TCTR20210222003 ).

A wide range of modern artificial intelligence challenges ca n be cast as Reinforcement Learning (RL) problems under partial observability, in which agents learn to make a sequence of decisions despite lacking complete information about the underlying state of system. For example, in robotics the agent has to cope with noisy sensors, occlusions, and unk nown dynamics ( Akkaya et al., 2019), while in imperfect information games the player makes only l ocal observations ( Vinyals et al., 2019; Brown and Sandholm, 2019). Further applications of partially observable RL include autonomous driving ( Levinson et al., 2011), resource allocation ( Bower and Gilbert, 2005), medical diagnostic systems ( Hauskrecht and Fraser, 2000), recommendation ( Li et al., 2010), business management ( De Brito and Van Der Laan, 2009), etc. As such, learning and acting under partial observabi lity has been an important topic in operation research, control, and machine learning. Because of the non-Markovian nature of the observations, le arning and planning in partially observable environments requires an agent to maintain memory and possibly reason about beliefs over the states, all while exploring to collect information about the environment. As such, partial observability can significantly complicate learni ng and planning under uncertainty. While practical RL systems have succeeded in a set of partially obs ervable problems including Poker ( Brown and Sandholm, 2019), Starcraft ( Vinyals et al., 2019) and certain robotic tasks ( Cassandra et al., The author emails are {qinghual, alan.chung,

High dimensional distributions, especially those with heavy tails, are notoriously difficult for off-the-shelf MCMC samplers: the combination of unbounded state spaces, diminishing gradient information, and local moves, results in empirically observed "stickiness" and poor theoretical mixing properties -- lack of geometric ergodicity. In this paper, we introduce a new class of MCMC samplers that map the original high dimensional problem in Euclidean space onto a sphere and remedy these notorious mixing problems. In particular, we develop random-walk Metropolis type algorithms as well as versions of Bouncy Particle Sampler that are uniformly ergodic for a large class of light and heavy-tailed distributions and also empirically exhibit rapid convergence in high dimensions. In the best scenario, the proposed samplers can enjoy the ``blessings of dimensionality'' that the mixing time decreases with dimension.

When starting out with Data Science, there is so much to learn it can become quite overwhelming. This guide will help aspiring data scientists and machine learning engineers gain better knowledge and experience. I will list different types of machine learning algorithms, which can be used with both Python and R. Linear Regression is the simplest Machine learning algorithm that branches off from Supervised Learning. It is primarily used to solve regression problems and make predictions on continuous dependent variables with the knowledge from independent variables. The goal of Linear Regression is to find the line of best fit, which can help predict the output for continuous dependent variables.

Multi-defender Stackelberg Security Games (MSSG) have recently gained increasing attention in the literature. However, the solutions offered to date are highly sensitive, wherein even small perturbations in the attacker's utility or slight uncertainties thereof can dramatically change the defenders' resulting payoffs and alter the equilibrium. In this paper, we introduce a robust model for MSSGs, which admits solutions that are resistant to small perturbations or uncertainties in the game's parameters. First, we formally define the notion of robustness, as well as the robust MSSG model. Then, for the non-cooperative setting, we prove the existence of a robust approximate equilibrium in any such game, and provide an efficient construction thereof. For the cooperative setting, we show that any such game admits a robust approximate alpha-core, provide an efficient construction thereof, and prove that stronger types of the core may be empty. Interestingly, the robust solutions can substantially increase the defenders' utilities over those of the non-robust ones.

Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) provides a principled and generic framework to model real world sequential decision making processes but yet remains unsolved, especially for high dimensional continuous space and unknown models. The main challenge lies in how to accurately obtain the belief state, which is the probability distribution over the unobservable environment states given historical information. Accurately calculating this belief state is a precondition for obtaining an optimal policy of POMDPs. Recent advances in deep learning techniques show great potential to learn good belief states. However, existing methods can only learn approximated distribution with limited flexibility. In this paper, we introduce the \textbf{F}l\textbf{O}w-based \textbf{R}ecurrent \textbf{BE}lief \textbf{S}tate model (FORBES), which incorporates normalizing flows into the variational inference to learn general continuous belief states for POMDPs. Furthermore, we show that the learned belief states can be plugged into downstream RL algorithms to improve performance. In experiments, we show that our methods successfully capture the complex belief states that enable multi-modal predictions as well as high quality reconstructions, and results on challenging visual-motor control tasks show that our method achieves superior performance and sample efficiency.

The Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm has been predominantly used to approximate the maximum likelihood estimation of the location-scale Gaussian mixtures. However, when the models are over-specified, namely, the chosen number of components to fit the data is larger than the unknown true number of components, EM needs a polynomial number of iterations in terms of the sample size to reach the final statistical radius; this is computationally expensive in practice. The slow convergence of EM is due to the missing of the locally strong convexity with respect to the location parameter on the negative population log-likelihood function, i.e., the limit of the negative sample log-likelihood function when the sample size goes to infinity. To efficiently explore the curvature of the negative log-likelihood functions, by specifically considering two-component location-scale Gaussian mixtures, we develop the Exponential Location Update (ELU) algorithm. The idea of the ELU algorithm is that we first obtain the exact optimal solution for the scale parameter and then perform an exponential step-size gradient descent for the location parameter. We demonstrate theoretically and empirically that the ELU iterates converge to the final statistical radius of the models after a logarithmic number of iterations. To the best of our knowledge, it resolves the long-standing open question in the literature about developing an optimization algorithm that has optimal statistical and computational complexities for solving parameter estimation even under some specific settings of the over-specified Gaussian mixture models.

Graph Neural Networks (GNN) provide a powerful framework that elegantly integrates Graph theory with Machine learning for modeling and analysis of networked data. We consider the problem of quantifying the uncertainty in predictions of GNN stemming from modeling errors and measurement uncertainty. We consider aleatoric uncertainty in the form of probabilistic links and noise in feature vector of nodes, while epistemic uncertainty is incorporated via a probability distribution over the model parameters. We propose a unified approach to treat both sources of uncertainty in a Bayesian framework, where Assumed Density Filtering is used to quantify aleatoric uncertainty and Monte Carlo dropout captures uncertainty in model parameters. Finally, the two sources of uncertainty are aggregated to estimate the total uncertainty in predictions of a GNN. Results in the real-world datasets demonstrate that the Bayesian model performs at par with a frequentist model and provides additional information about predictions uncertainty that are sensitive to uncertainties in the data and model.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) with noisy weights, which we refer to as noisy neural networks (NoisyNNs), arise from the training and inference of DNNs in the presence of noise. NoisyNNs emerge in many new applications, including the wireless transmission of DNNs, the efficient deployment or storage of DNNs in analog devices, and the truncation or quantization of DNN weights. This paper studies a fundamental problem of NoisyNNs: how to reconstruct the DNN weights from their noisy manifestations. While all prior works relied on the maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, this paper puts forth a denoising approach to reconstruct DNNs with the aim of maximizing the inference accuracy of the reconstructed models. The superiority of our denoiser is rigorously proven in two small-scale problems, wherein we consider a quadratic neural network function and a shallow feedforward neural network, respectively. When applied to advanced learning tasks with modern DNN architectures, our denoiser exhibits significantly better performance than the ML estimator. Consider the average test accuracy of the denoised DNN model versus the weight variance to noise power ratio (WNR) performance. When denoising a noisy ResNet34 model arising from noisy inference, our denoiser outperforms ML estimation by up to 4.1 dB to achieve a test accuracy of 60%.When denoising a noisy ResNet18 model arising from noisy training, our denoiser outperforms ML estimation by 13.4 dB and 8.3 dB to achieve test accuracies of 60% and 80%, respectively.