We consider model selection for classic Reinforcement Learning (RL) environments -- Multi Armed Bandits (MABs) and Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) -- under general function approximations. In the model selection framework, we do not know the function classes, denoted by $\mathcal{F}$ and $\mathcal{M}$, where the true models -- reward generating function for MABs and and transition kernel for MDPs -- lie, respectively. Instead, we are given $M$ nested function (hypothesis) classes such that true models are contained in at-least one such class. In this paper, we propose and analyze efficient model selection algorithms for MABs and MDPs, that \emph{adapt} to the smallest function class (among the nested $M$ classes) containing the true underlying model. Under a separability assumption on the nested hypothesis classes, we show that the cumulative regret of our adaptive algorithms match to that of an oracle which knows the correct function classes (i.e., $\cF$ and $\cM$) a priori. Furthermore, for both the settings, we show that the cost of model selection is an additive term in the regret having weak (logarithmic) dependence on the learning horizon $T$.

Mobile Manipulation (MM) systems are ideal candidates for taking up the role of a personal assistant in unstructured real-world environments. Among other challenges, MM requires effective coordination of the robot's embodiments for executing tasks that require both mobility and manipulation. Reinforcement Learning (RL) holds the promise of endowing robots with adaptive behaviors, but most methods require prohibitively large amounts of data for learning a useful control policy. In this work, we study the integration of robotic reachability priors in actor-critic RL methods for accelerating the learning of MM for reaching and fetching tasks. Namely, we consider the problem of optimal base placement and the subsequent decision of whether to activate the arm for reaching a 6D target. For this, we devise a novel Hybrid RL method that handles discrete and continuous actions jointly, resorting to the Gumbel-Softmax reparameterization. Next, we train a reachability prior using data from the operational robot workspace, inspired by classical methods. Subsequently, we derive Boosted Hybrid RL (BHyRL), a novel algorithm for learning Q-functions by modeling them as a sum of residual approximators. Every time a new task needs to be learned, we can transfer our learned residuals and learn the component of the Q-function that is task-specific, hence, maintaining the task structure from prior behaviors. Moreover, we find that regularizing the target policy with a prior policy yields more expressive behaviors. We evaluate our method in simulation in reaching and fetching tasks of increasing difficulty, and we show the superior performance of BHyRL against baseline methods. Finally, we zero-transfer our learned 6D fetching policy with BHyRL to our MM robot TIAGo++. For more details and code release, please refer to our project site: irosalab.com/rlmmbp

As the number of smart devices that surround us increases, so do the opportunities to create smart socially-aware systems. In this context, mobile devices can be used to collect data about students and to better understand how their day-to-day routines can influence their academic performance. Moreover, the Covid-19 pandemic led to new challenges and difficulties, also for students, with considerable impact on their lifestyle. In this paper we present a dataset collected using a smartphone application (ISABELA), which include passive data (e.g., activity and location) as well as self-reported data from questionnaires. We present several tests with different machine learning models, in order to classify students' performance. These tests were carried out using different time windows, showing that weekly time windows lead to better prediction and classification results than monthly time windows. Furthermore, it is shown that the created models can predict student performance even with data collected from different contexts, namely before and during the Covid-19 pandemic. SVMs, XGBoost and AdaBoost-SAMME with Random Forest were found to be the best algorithms, showing an accuracy greater than 78%. Additionally, we propose a pipeline that uses a decision level median voting algorithm to further improve the models' performance, by using historic data from the students to further improve the prediction. Using this pipeline, it is possible to further increase the performance of the models, with some of them obtaining an accuracy greater than 90%.

In this paper, we study the probabilistic stability analysis of a subclass of stochastic hybrid systems, called the Planar Probabilistic Piecewise Constant Derivative Systems (Planar PPCD), where the continuous dynamics is deterministic, constant rate and planar, the discrete switching between the modes is probabilistic and happens at boundary of the invariant regions, and the continuous states are not reset during switching. These aptly model piecewise linear behaviors of planar robots. Our main result is an exact algorithm for deciding absolute and almost sure stability of Planar PPCD under some mild assumptions on mutual reachability between the states and the presence of non-zero probability self-loops. Our main idea is to reduce the stability problems on planar PPCD into corresponding problems on Discrete Time Markov Chains with edge weights.

We propose Universal Causality, an overarching framework based on category theory that defines the universal property that underlies causal inference independent of the underlying representational formalism used. More formally, universal causal models are defined as categories consisting of objects and morphisms between them representing causal influences, as well as structures for carrying out interventions (experiments) and evaluating their outcomes (observations). Functors map between categories, and natural transformations map between a pair of functors across the same two categories. Abstract causal diagrams in our framework are built using universal constructions from category theory, including the limit or co-limit of an abstract causal diagram, or more generally, the Kan extension. We present two foundational results in universal causal inference. The first result, called the Universal Causality Theorem (UCT), pertains to the universality of diagrams, which are viewed as functors mapping both objects and relationships from an indexing category of abstract causal diagrams to an actual causal model whose nodes are labeled by random variables, and edges represent functional or probabilistic relationships. UCT states that any causal inference can be represented in a canonical way as the co-limit of an abstract causal diagram of representable objects. UCT follows from a basic result in the theory of sheaves. The second result, the Causal Reproducing Property (CRP), states that any causal influence of a object X on another object Y is representable as a natural transformation between two abstract causal diagrams. CRP follows from the Yoneda Lemma, one of the deepest results in category theory. The CRP property is analogous to the reproducing property in Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces that served as the foundation for kernel methods in machine learning.

We live in quite an exciting time as we see technologies around us developing at a breakneck speed. We are also seeing data overtaking crude oil as the most valuable resource available for this generation's businesses. The transition of computing power from traditional on-premise mainframe data centres to easy-to-use and ever-scalable cloud computing has unlocked limitless possibilities to use data like never before. And we are just getting started to harness the true power of data. Data Science is probably the most famous buzzword in the domain of technology and IT right now. We are seeing the democratization of several tools and techniques working in tandem with the boost in computing. Using the data on almost everything, we can enable computers to learn and replicate actions as humans do.

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Offline RL algorithms must account for the fact that the dataset they are provided may leave many facets of the environment unknown. The most common way to approach this challenge is to employ pessimistic or conservative methods, which avoid behaviors that are too dissimilar from those in the training dataset. However, relying exclusively on conservatism has drawbacks: performance is sensitive to the exact degree of conservatism, and conservative objectives can recover highly suboptimal policies. In this work, we propose that offline RL methods should instead be adaptive in the presence of uncertainty. We show that acting optimally in offline RL in a Bayesian sense involves solving an implicit POMDP. As a result, optimal policies for offline RL must be adaptive, depending not just on the current state but rather all the transitions seen so far during evaluation.We present a model-free algorithm for approximating this optimal adaptive policy, and demonstrate the efficacy of learning such adaptive policies in offline RL benchmarks.

Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) algorithms can scale to previously intractable problems. The automation of profit generation in the stock market is possible using DRL, by combining the financial assets price "prediction" step and the "allocation" step of the portfolio in one unified process to produce fully autonomous systems capable of interacting with their environment to make optimal decisions through trial and error. This work represents a DRL model to generate profitable trades in the stock market, effectively overcoming the limitations of supervised learning approaches. We formulate the trading problem as a Partially Observed Markov Decision Process (POMDP) model, considering the constraints imposed by the stock market, such as liquidity and transaction costs. We then solve the formulated POMDP problem using the Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (TD3) algorithm reporting a 2.68 Sharpe Ratio on unseen data set (test data). From the point of view of stock market forecasting and the intelligent decision-making mechanism, this paper demonstrates the superiority of DRL in financial markets over other types of machine learning and proves its credibility and advantages of strategic decision-making.

The rapid growth of connected devices has led to the proliferation of novel cyber-security threats known as zero-day attacks. Traditional behaviour-based IDS rely on DNN to detect these attacks. The quality of the dataset used to train the DNN plays a critical role in the detection performance, with underrepresented samples causing poor performances. In this paper, we develop and evaluate the performance of DBN on detecting cyber-attacks within a network of connected devices. The CICIDS2017 dataset was used to train and evaluate the performance of our proposed DBN approach. Several class balancing techniques were applied and evaluated. Lastly, we compare our approach against a conventional MLP model and the existing state-of-the-art. Our proposed DBN approach shows competitive and promising results, with significant performance improvement on the detection of attacks underrepresented in the training dataset.