This work in progress aims to provide a unified introduction to statistical learning, building up slowly from classical models like the GMM and HMM to modern neural networks like the VAE and diffusion models. There are today many internet resources that explain this or that new machine-learning algorithm in isolation, but they do not (and cannot, in so brief a space) connect these algorithms with each other or with the classical literature on statistical models, out of which the modern algorithms emerged. Also conspicuously lacking is a single notational system which, although unfazing to those already familiar with the material (like the authors of these posts), raises a significant barrier to the novice's entry. Likewise, I have aimed to assimilate the various models, wherever possible, to a single framework for inference and learning, showing how (and why) to change one model into another with minimal alteration (some of them novel, others from the literature). Some background is of course necessary. I have assumed the reader is familiar with basic multivariable calculus, probability and statistics, and linear algebra. The goal of this book is certainly not completeness, but rather to draw a more or less straight-line path from the basics to the extremely powerful new models of the last decade. The goal then is to complement, not replace, such comprehensive texts as Bishop's \emph{Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning}, which is now 15 years old.

This paper presents a simultaneous localization and map-assisted environment recognition (SLAMER) method. Mobile robots usually have an environment map and environment information can be assigned to the map. Important information for mobile robots such as no entry zone can be predicted if localization has succeeded since relative pose of them can be known. However, this prediction is failed when localization does not work. Uncertainty of pose estimate must be considered for robustly using the map information. In addition, robots have external sensors and environment information can be recognized using the sensors. This on-line recognition of course contains uncertainty; however, it has to be fused with the map information for robust environment recognition since the map also contains uncertainty owing to over time. SLAMER can simultaneously cope with these uncertainties and achieves accurate localization and environment recognition. In this paper, we demonstrate LiDAR-based implementation of SLAMER in two cases. In the first case, we use the SemanticKITTI dataset and show that SLAMER achieves accurate estimate more than traditional methods. In the second case, we use an indoor mobile robot and show that unmeasurable environmental objects such as open doors and no entry lines can be recognized.

To enable robots to achieve high level objectives, engineers typically write scripts that apply existing specialized skills, such as navigation, object detection and manipulation to achieve these goals. Writing good scripts is challenging since they must intelligently balance the inherent stochasticity of a physical robot's actions and sensors, and the limited information it has. In principle, AI planning can be used to address this challenge and generate good behavior policies automatically. But this requires passing three hurdles. First, the AI must understand each skill's impact on the world. Second, we must bridge the gap between the more abstract level at which we understand what a skill does and the low-level state variables used within its code. Third, much integration effort is required to tie together all components. We describe an approach for integrating robot skills into a working autonomous robot controller that schedules its skills to achieve a specified task and carries four key advantages. 1) Our Generative Skill Documentation Language (GSDL) makes code documentation simpler, compact, and more expressive using ideas from probabilistic programming languages. 2) An expressive abstraction mapping (AM) bridges the gap between low-level robot code and the abstract AI planning model. 3) Any properly documented skill can be used by the controller without any additional programming effort, providing a Plug'n Play experience. 4) A POMDP solver schedules skill execution while properly balancing partial observability, stochastic behavior, and noisy sensing.

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought forth the importance of epidemic forecasting for decision makers in multiple domains, ranging from public health to the economy as a whole. While forecasting epidemic progression is frequently conceptualized as being analogous to weather forecasting, however it has some key differences and remains a non-trivial task. The spread of diseases is subject to multiple confounding factors spanning human behavior, pathogen dynamics, weather and environmental conditions. Research interest has been fueled by the increased availability of rich data sources capturing previously unobservable facets and also due to initiatives from government public health and funding agencies. This has resulted, in particular, in a spate of work on 'data-centered' solutions which have shown potential in enhancing our forecasting capabilities by leveraging non-traditional data sources as well as recent innovations in AI and machine learning. This survey delves into various data-driven methodological and practical advancements and introduces a conceptual framework to navigate through them. First, we enumerate the large number of epidemiological datasets and novel data streams that are relevant to epidemic forecasting, capturing various factors like symptomatic online surveys, retail and commerce, mobility, genomics data and more. Next, we discuss methods and modeling paradigms focusing on the recent data-driven statistical and deep-learning based methods as well as on the novel class of hybrid models that combine domain knowledge of mechanistic models with the effectiveness and flexibility of statistical approaches. We also discuss experiences and challenges that arise in real-world deployment of these forecasting systems including decision-making informed by forecasts. Finally, we highlight some challenges and open problems found across the forecasting pipeline.

We present a novel Learning from Demonstration (LfD) method, Deformable Manipulation from Demonstrations (DMfD), to solve deformable manipulation tasks using states or images as inputs, given expert demonstrations. Our method uses demonstrations in three different ways, and balances the trade-off between exploring the environment online and using guidance from experts to explore high dimensional spaces effectively. We test DMfD on a set of representative manipulation tasks for a 1-dimensional rope and a 2-dimensional cloth from the SoftGym suite of tasks, each with state and image observations. Our method exceeds baseline performance by up to 12.9% for state-based tasks and up to 33.44% on image-based tasks, with comparable or better robustness to randomness. Additionally, we create two challenging environments for folding a 2D cloth using image-based observations, and set a performance benchmark for them. We deploy DMfD on a real robot with a minimal loss in normalized performance during real-world execution compared to simulation (~6%). Source code is on github.com/uscresl/dmfd

Naive Bayes is a probabilistic machine learning algorithm that is based on the Bayes Theorem and is used for a wide range of classification challenges. In this blog, we will learn about the Naive Bayes algorithm and all of its core concepts so that there are no gaps in the information. As we all know, machine learning is the technology that predicts goal B using characteristics A, i.e., computing the conditional probability P(B A). Then, for the discriminative model, we only take into account assessing the conditional probability. This establishes the classifier under the condition of a limited sample, without evaluating the sample's generative model, instead of learning the prediction model, like in the binary classification problem.

The algorithm works on the basis of entities called classifiers, which are composed of a condition and an action. When the system state matches the condition of an entity, it computes a bid and the entity with the highest bid is allowed to push its specific action onto an execution queue. The bid is distributed among the previously active classifiers that led the system to the triggering condition, such that chains of rewards originate and learning may take place.

We consider an improper reinforcement learning setting where a learner is given $M$ base controllers for an unknown Markov decision process, and wishes to combine them optimally to produce a potentially new controller that can outperform each of the base ones. This can be useful in tuning across controllers, learnt possibly in mismatched or simulated environments, to obtain a good controller for a given target environment with relatively few trials. Towards this, we propose two algorithms: (1) a Policy Gradient-based approach; and (2) an algorithm that can switch between a simple Actor-Critic (AC) based scheme and a Natural Actor-Critic (NAC) scheme depending on the available information. Both algorithms operate over a class of improper mixtures of the given controllers. For the first case, we derive convergence rate guarantees assuming access to a gradient oracle. For the AC-based approach we provide convergence rate guarantees to a stationary point in the basic AC case and to a global optimum in the NAC case. Numerical results on (i) the standard control theoretic benchmark of stabilizing an cartpole; and (ii) a constrained queueing task show that our improper policy optimization algorithm can stabilize the system even when the base policies at its disposal are unstable.

Some of the most relevant future applications of multi-agent systems like autonomous driving or factories as a service display mixed-motive scenarios, where agents might have conflicting goals. In these settings agents are likely to learn undesirable outcomes in terms of cooperation under independent learning, such as overly greedy behavior. Motivated from real world societies, in this work we propose to utilize market forces to provide incentives for agents to become cooperative. As demonstrated in an iterated version of the Prisoner's Dilemma, the proposed market formulation can change the dynamics of the game to consistently learn cooperative policies. Further we evaluate our approach in spatially and temporally extended settings for varying numbers of agents. We empirically find that the presence of markets can improve both the overall result and agent individual returns via their trading activities.

A hybrid quantum-classical method for learning Boltzmann machines (BM) for a generative and discriminative task is presented. Boltzmann machines are undirected graphs with a network of visible and hidden nodes where the former is used as the reading site while the latter is used to manipulate visible states' probability. In Generative BM, the samples of visible data imitate the probability distribution of a given data set. In contrast, the visible sites of discriminative BM are treated as Input/Output (I/O) reading sites where the conditional probability of output state is optimized for a given set of input states. The cost function for learning BM is defined as a weighted sum of Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence and Negative conditional Log-Likelihood (NCLL), adjusted using a hyperparamter. Here, the KL Divergence is the cost for generative learning, and NCLL is the cost for discriminative learning. A Stochastic Newton-Raphson optimization scheme is presented. The gradients and the Hessians are approximated using direct samples of BM obtained through Quantum annealing (QA). Quantum annealers are hardware representing the physics of the Ising model that operates on low but finite temperature. This temperature affects the probability distribution of the BM; however, its value is unknown. Previous efforts have focused on estimating this unknown temperature through regression of theoretical Boltzmann energies of sampled states with the probability of states sampled by the actual hardware. This assumes that the control parameter change does not affect the system temperature, however, this is not usually the case. Instead, an approach that works on the probability distribution of samples, instead of the energies, is proposed to estimate the optimal parameter set. This ensures that the optimal set can be obtained from a single run.