Fraud detection is a challenging task due to the changing nature of fraud patterns over time and the limited availability of fraud examples to learn such sophisticated patterns. Thus, fraud detection with the aid of smart versions of machine learning (ML) tools is essential to assure safety. Fraud detection is a primary ML classification task; however, the optimum performance of the corresponding ML tool relies on the usage of the best hyperparameter values. Moreover, classification under imbalanced classes is quite challenging as it causes poor performance in minority classes, which most ML classification techniques ignore. Thus, we investigate four state-of-the-art ML techniques, namely, logistic regression, decision trees, random forest, and extreme gradient boost, that are suitable for handling imbalance classes to maximize precision and simultaneously reduce false positives. First, these classifiers are trained on two original benchmark unbalanced fraud detection datasets, namely, phishing website URLs and fraudulent credit card transactions. Then, three synthetically balanced datasets are produced for each original data set by implementing the sampling frameworks, namely, RandomUnderSampler, SMOTE, and SMOTEENN. The optimum hyperparameters for all the 16 experiments are revealed using the method RandomzedSearchCV. The validity of the 16 approaches in the context of fraud detection is compared using two benchmark performance metrics, namely, area under the curve of receiver operating characteristics (AUC ROC) and area under the curve of precision and recall (AUC PR). For both phishing website URLs and credit card fraud transaction datasets, the results indicate that extreme gradient boost trained on the original data shows trustworthy performance in the imbalanced dataset and manages to outperform the other three methods in terms of both AUC ROC and AUC PR.

Epilepsy is a disorder of the brain denoted by frequent seizures. The symptoms of seizure include confusion, abnormal staring, and rapid, sudden, and uncontrollable hand movements. Epileptic seizure detection methods involve neurological exams, blood tests, neuropsychological tests, and neuroimaging modalities. Among these, neuroimaging modalities have received considerable attention from specialist physicians. One method to facilitate the accurate and fast diagnosis of epileptic seizures is to employ computer-aided diagnosis systems (CADS) based on deep learning (DL) and neuroimaging modalities. This paper has studied a comprehensive overview of DL methods employed for epileptic seizures detection and prediction using neuroimaging modalities. First, DL-based CADS for epileptic seizures detection and prediction using neuroimaging modalities are discussed. Also, descriptions of various datasets, preprocessing algorithms, and DL models which have been used for epileptic seizures detection and prediction have been included. Then, research on rehabilitation tools has been presented, which contains brain-computer interface (BCI), cloud computing, internet of things (IoT), hardware implementation of DL techniques on field-programmable gate array (FPGA), etc. In the discussion section, a comparison has been carried out between research on epileptic seizure detection and prediction. The challenges in epileptic seizures detection and prediction using neuroimaging modalities and DL models have been described. In addition, possible directions for future works in this field, specifically for solving challenges in datasets, DL, rehabilitation, and hardware models, have been proposed. The final section is dedicated to the conclusion which summarizes the significant findings of the paper.

Deception is prevalent in human social settings. However, studies into the effect of deception on reinforcement learning algorithms have been limited to simplistic settings, restricting their applicability to complex real-world problems. This paper addresses this by introducing a new mixed competitive-cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) environment inspired by popular role-based deception games such as Werewolf, Avalon, and Among Us. The environment's unique challenge lies in the necessity to cooperate with other agents despite not knowing if they are friend or foe. Furthermore, we introduce a model of deception, which we call Bayesian belief manipulation (BBM) and demonstrate its effectiveness at deceiving other agents in this environment while also increasing the deceiving agent's performance.

Under what circumstances can a system be said to have beliefs and goals, and how do such agency-related features relate to its physical state? Recent work has proposed a notion of interpretation map, a function that maps the state of a system to a probability distribution representing its beliefs about an external world. Such a map is not completely arbitrary, as the beliefs it attributes to the system must evolve over time in a manner that is consistent with Bayes' theorem, and consequently the dynamics of a system constrain its possible interpretations. Here we build on this approach, proposing a notion of interpretation not just in terms of beliefs but in terms of goals and actions. To do this we make use of the existing theory of partially observable Markov processes (POMDPs): we say that a system can be interpreted as a solution to a POMDP if it not only admits an interpretation map describing its beliefs about the hidden state of a POMDP but also takes actions that are optimal according to its belief state. An agent is then a system together with an interpretation of this system as a POMDP solution. Although POMDPs are not the only possible formulation of what it means to have a goal, this nevertheless represents a step towards a more general formal definition of what it means for a system to be an agent.

In this paper, we present a density estimation framework based on tree tensor-network states. The proposed method consists of determining the tree topology with Chow-Liu algorithm, and obtaining a linear system of equations that defines the tensor-network components via sketching techniques. Novel choices of sketch functions are developed in order to consider graphical models that contain loops. Sample complexity guarantees are provided and further corroborated by numerical experiments.

Top-k error has become a popular metric for large-scale classification benchmarks due to the inevitable semantic ambiguity among classes. Existing literature on top-k optimization generally focuses on the optimization method of the top-k objective, while ignoring the limitations of the metric itself. In this paper, we point out that the top-k objective lacks enough discrimination such that the induced predictions may give a totally irrelevant label a top rank. To fix this issue, we develop a novel metric named partial Area Under the top-k Curve (AUTKC). Theoretical analysis shows that AUTKC has a better discrimination ability, and its Bayes optimal score function could give a correct top-K ranking with respect to the conditional probability. This shows that AUTKC does not allow irrelevant labels to appear in the top list. Furthermore, we present an empirical surrogate risk minimization framework to optimize the proposed metric. Theoretically, we present (1) a sufficient condition for Fisher consistency of the Bayes optimal score function; (2) a generalization upper bound which is insensitive to the number of classes under a simple hyperparameter setting. Finally, the experimental results on four benchmark datasets validate the effectiveness of our proposed framework.

While digging in the details of classical classification methods, I found sparse information about the similarities and differences of Gaussian Naive Bayes (GNB), Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) and Quadratic Discriminant Analysis (QDA). This post centralises the information I found for the next learner. Summary: All three methods are a specific instance of The Bayes Classifier, they all deal with continuous Gaussian predictors, they differ in the assumptions they makes about the relationships amongst predictors, and across classes (i.e. the way they specify the covariance matrices). We have a set X of p predictors, and a discrete response variable Y (the class) taking values k {1, …, K}, for a sample of n observations. We encounter a new observation for which we know the values of the predictors X, but not the class Y, so we would like to make a guess about Y based on the information we have (our sample).

In the context of modern environmental and societal concerns, there is an increasing demand for methods able to identify management strategies for civil engineering systems, minimizing structural failure risks while optimally planning inspection and maintenance (I&M) processes. Most available methods simplify the I&M decision problem to the component level due to the computational complexity associated with global optimization methodologies under joint system-level state descriptions. In this paper, we propose an efficient algorithmic framework for inference and decision-making under uncertainty for engineering systems exposed to deteriorating environments, providing optimal management strategies directly at the system level. In our approach, the decision problem is formulated as a factored partially observable Markov decision process, whose dynamics are encoded in Bayesian network conditional structures. The methodology can handle environments under equal or general, unequal deterioration correlations among components, through Gaussian hierarchical structures and dynamic Bayesian networks. In terms of policy optimization, we adopt a deep decentralized multi-agent actor-critic (DDMAC) reinforcement learning approach, in which the policies are approximated by actor neural networks guided by a critic network. By including deterioration dependence in the simulated environment, and by formulating the cost model at the system level, DDMAC policies intrinsically consider the underlying system-effects. This is demonstrated through numerical experiments conducted for both a 9-out-of-10 system and a steel frame under fatigue deterioration. Results demonstrate that DDMAC policies offer substantial benefits when compared to state-of-the-art heuristic approaches. The inherent consideration of system-effects by DDMAC strategies is also interpreted based on the learned policies.

Surprising events trigger measurable brain activity and influence human behavior by affecting learning, memory, and decision-making. Currently there is, however, no consensus on the definition of surprise. Here we identify 18 mathematical definitions of surprise in a unifying framework. We first propose a technical classification of these definitions into three groups based on their dependence on an agent's belief, show how they relate to each other, and prove under what conditions they are indistinguishable. Going beyond this technical analysis, we propose a taxonomy of surprise definitions and classify them into four conceptual categories based on the quantity they measure: (i) 'prediction surprise' measures a mismatch between a prediction and an observation; (ii) 'change-point detection surprise' measures the probability of a change in the environment; (iii) 'confidence-corrected surprise' explicitly accounts for the effect of confidence; and (iv) 'information gain surprise' measures the belief-update upon a new observation. The taxonomy poses the foundation for principled studies of the functional roles and physiological signatures of surprise in the brain.

In this article, we describe a {\tt R} package for sampling from an empirical likelihood-based posterior using a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method. Empirical likelihood-based methodologies have been used in Bayesian modeling of many problems of interest in recent times. This semiparametric procedure can easily combine the flexibility of a non-parametric distribution estimator together with the interpretability of a parametric model. The model is specified by estimating equations-based constraints. Drawing an inference from a Bayesian empirical likelihood (BayesEL) posterior is challenging. The likelihood is computed numerically, so no closed expression of the posterior exists. Moreover, for any sample of finite size, the support of the likelihood is non-convex, which hinders the fast mixing of many Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedures. It has been recently shown that using the properties of the gradient of log empirical likelihood, one can devise an efficient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm to sample from a BayesEL posterior. The package requires the user to specify only the estimating equations, the prior, and their respective gradients. An MCMC sample drawn from the BayesEL posterior of the parameters, with various details required by the user is obtained.