Solving Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) with continuous actions is challenging, particularly for high-dimensional action spaces. To alleviate this difficulty, we propose a new sampling-based online POMDP solver, called Adaptive Discretization using Voronoi Trees (ADVT). It uses Monte Carlo Tree Search in combination with an adaptive discretization of the action space as well as optimistic optimization to efficiently sample high-dimensional continuous action spaces and compute the best action to perform. Specifically, we adaptively discretize the action space for each sampled belief using a hierarchical partition which we call a Voronoi tree. A Voronoi tree is a Binary Space Partitioning (BSP) that implicitly maintains the partition of a cell as the Voronoi diagram of two points sampled from the cell. This partitioning strategy keeps the cost of partitioning and estimating the size of each cell low, even in high-dimensional spaces where many sampled points are required to cover the space well. ADVT uses the estimated sizes of the cells to form an upper-confidence bound of the action values of the cell, and in turn uses the upper-confidence bound to guide the Monte Carlo Tree Search expansion and further discretization of the action space. This strategy enables ADVT to better exploit local information in the action space, leading to an action space discretization that is more adaptive, and hence more efficient in computing good POMDP solutions, compared to existing solvers. Experiments on simulations of four types of benchmark problems indicate that ADVT outperforms and scales substantially better to high-dimensional continuous action spaces, compared to state-of-the-art continuous action POMDP solvers.

Solving temporally-extended tasks is a challenge for most reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms [arXiv:1906.07343]. We investigate the ability of an RL agent to learn to ask natural language questions as a tool to understand its environment and achieve greater generalisation performance in novel, temporally-extended environments. We do this by endowing this agent with the ability of asking "yes-no" questions to an all-knowing Oracle. This allows the agent to obtain guidance regarding the task at hand, while limiting the access to new information. To study the emergence of such natural language questions in the context of temporally-extended tasks we first train our agent in a Mini-Grid environment. We then transfer the trained agent to a different, harder environment. We observe a significant increase in generalisation performance compared to a baseline agent unable to ask questions. Through grounding its understanding of natural language in its environment, the agent can reason about the dynamics of its environment to the point that it can ask new, relevant questions when deployed in a novel environment.

There are essentially three kinds of approaches to Uncertainty Quantification (UQ): (A) robust optimization, (B) Bayesian, (C) decision theory. Although (A) is robust, it is unfavorable with respect to accuracy and data assimilation. (B) requires a prior, it is generally brittle and posterior estimations can be slow. Although (C) leads to the identification of an optimal prior, its approximation suffers from the curse of dimensionality and the notion of risk is one that is averaged with respect to the distribution of the data. We introduce a 4th kind which is a hybrid between (A), (B), (C), and hypothesis testing. It can be summarized as, after observing a sample $x$, (1) defining a likelihood region through the relative likelihood and (2) playing a minmax game in that region to define optimal estimators and their risk. The resulting method has several desirable properties (a) an optimal prior is identified after measuring the data, and the notion of risk is a posterior one, (b) the determination of the optimal estimate and its risk can be reduced to computing the minimum enclosing ball of the image of the likelihood region under the quantity of interest map (which is fast and not subject to the curse of dimensionality). The method is characterized by a parameter in $ [0,1]$ acting as an assumed lower bound on the rarity of the observed data (the relative likelihood). When that parameter is near $1$, the method produces a posterior distribution concentrated around a maximum likelihood estimate with tight but low confidence UQ estimates. When that parameter is near $0$, the method produces a maximal risk posterior distribution with high confidence UQ estimates. In addition to navigating the accuracy-uncertainty tradeoff, the proposed method addresses the brittleness of Bayesian inference by navigating the robustness-accuracy tradeoff associated with data assimilation.

Machine unlearning refers to the task of removing a subset of training data, thereby removing its contributions to a trained model. Approximate unlearning are one class of methods for this task which avoid the need to retrain the model from scratch on the retained data. Bayes' rule can be used to cast approximate unlearning as an inference problem where the objective is to obtain the updated posterior by dividing out the likelihood of deleted data. However this has its own set of challenges as one often doesn't have access to the exact posterior of the model parameters. In this work we examine the use of the Laplace approximation and Variational Inference to obtain the updated posterior. With a neural network trained for a regression task as the guiding example, we draw insights on the applicability of Bayesian unlearning in practical scenarios.

The advancements in machine learning techniques have encouraged researchers to apply these techniques to a myriad of software engineering tasks that use source code analysis, such as testing and vulnerability detection. Such a large number of studies hinders the community from understanding the current research landscape. This paper aims to summarize the current knowledge in applied machine learning for source code analysis. We review studies belonging to twelve categories of software engineering tasks and corresponding machine learning techniques, tools, and datasets that have been applied to solve them. To do so, we conducted an extensive literature search and identified 479 primary studies published between 2011 and 2021. We summarize our observations and findings with the help of the identified studies. Our findings suggest that the use of machine learning techniques for source code analysis tasks is consistently increasing. We synthesize commonly used steps and the overall workflow for each task and summarize machine learning techniques employed. We identify a comprehensive list of available datasets and tools useable in this context. Finally, the paper discusses perceived challenges in this area, including the availability of standard datasets, reproducibility and replicability, and hardware resources.

Robots working in real environments need to adapt to unexpected changes to avoid failures. This is an open and complex challenge that requires robots to timely predict and identify the causes of failures to prevent them. In this paper, we present a causal method that will enable robots to predict when errors are likely to occur and prevent them from happening by executing a corrective action. First, we propose a causal-based method to detect the cause-effect relationships between task executions and their consequences by learning a causal Bayesian network (BN). The obtained model is transferred from simulated data to real scenarios to demonstrate the robustness and generalization of the obtained models. Based on the causal BN, the robot can predict if and why the executed action will succeed or not in its current state. Then, we introduce a novel method that finds the closest state alternatives through a contrastive Breadth-First-Search if the current action was predicted to fail. We evaluate our approach for the problem of stacking cubes in two cases; a) single stacks (stacking one cube) and; b) multiple stacks (stacking three cubes). In the single-stack case, our method was able to reduce the error rate by 97%. We also show that our approach can scale to capture multiple actions in one model, allowing to measure timely shifted action effects, such as the impact of an imprecise stack of the first cube on the stacking success of the third cube. For these complex situations, our model was able to prevent around 75% of the stacking errors, even for the challenging multiple-stack scenario. Thus, demonstrating that our method is able to explain, predict, and prevent execution failures, which even scales to complex scenarios that require an understanding of how the action history impacts future actions.

Social media platforms (SMPs) leverage algorithmic filtering (AF) as a means of selecting the content that constitutes a user's feed with the aim of maximizing their rewards. Selectively choosing the contents to be shown on the user's feed may yield a certain extent of influence, either minor or major, on the user's decision-making, compared to what it would have been under a natural/fair content selection. As we have witnessed over the past decade, algorithmic filtering can cause detrimental side effects, ranging from biasing individual decisions to shaping those of society as a whole, for example, diverting users' attention from whether to get the COVID-19 vaccine or inducing the public to choose a presidential candidate. The government's constant attempts to regulate the adverse effects of AF are often complicated, due to bureaucracy, legal affairs, and financial considerations. On the other hand SMPs seek to monitor their own algorithmic activities to avoid being fined for exceeding the allowable threshold. In this paper, we mathematically formalize this framework and utilize it to construct a data-driven statistical algorithm to regulate the AF from deflecting users' beliefs over time, along with sample and complexity guarantees. We show that our algorithm is robust against potential adversarial users. This state-of-the-art algorithm can be used either by authorities acting as external regulators or by SMPs for self-regulation.

In an Markov decision process (MDP), unobservable confounders may exist and have impacts on the data generating process, so that the classic off-policy evaluation (OPE) estimators may fail to identify the true value function of the target policy. In this paper, we study the statistical properties of OPE in confounded MDPs with observable instrumental variables. Specifically, we propose a two-stage estimator based on the instrumental variables and establish its statistical properties in the confounded MDPs with a linear structure. For non-asymptotic analysis, we prove a $\mathcal{O}(n^{-1/2})$-error bound where $n$ is the number of samples. For asymptotic analysis, we prove that the two-stage estimator is asymptotically normal with a typical rate of $n^{1/2}$. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to show such statistical results of the two-stage estimator for confounded linear MDPs via instrumental variables.

In this paper we present BayesLDM, a system for Bayesian longitudinal data modeling consisting of a high-level modeling language with specific features for modeling complex multivariate time series data coupled with a compiler that can produce optimized probabilistic program code for performing inference in the specified model. BayesLDM supports modeling of Bayesian network models with a specific focus on the efficient, declarative specification of dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs). The BayesLDM compiler combines a model specification with inspection of available data and outputs code for performing Bayesian inference for unknown model parameters while simultaneously handling missing data. These capabilities have the potential to significantly accelerate iterative modeling workflows in domains that involve the analysis of complex longitudinal data by abstracting away the process of producing computationally efficient probabilistic inference code. We describe the BayesLDM system components, evaluate the efficiency of representation and inference optimizations and provide an illustrative example of the application of the system to analyzing heterogeneous and partially observed mobile health data.

To build recommender systems that not only consider user-item interactions represented as ordinal variables, but also exploit the social network describing the relationships between the users, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian model termed ordinal graph factor analysis (OGFA), which jointly models user-item and user-user interactions. OGFA not only achieves good recommendation performance, but also extracts interpretable latent factors corresponding to representative user preferences. We further extend OGFA to ordinal graph gamma belief network, which is a multi-stochastic-layer deep probabilistic model that captures the user preferences and social communities at multiple semantic levels. For efficient inference, we develop a parallel hybrid Gibbs-EM algorithm, which exploits the sparsity of the graphs and is scalable to large datasets. Our experimental results show that the proposed models not only outperform recent baselines on recommendation datasets with explicit or implicit feedback, but also provide interpretable latent representations.