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 Learning Graphical Models



Distribution Calibration for Out-of-Domain Detection with Bayesian Approximation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Out-of-Domain (OOD) detection is a key component in a task-oriented dialog system, which aims to identify whether a query falls outside the predefined supported intent set. Previous softmax-based detection algorithms are proved to be overconfident for OOD samples. In this paper, we analyze overconfident OOD comes from distribution uncertainty due to the mismatch between the training and test distributions, which makes the model can't confidently make predictions thus probably causing abnormal softmax scores. We propose a Bayesian OOD detection framework to calibrate distribution uncertainty using Monte-Carlo Dropout. Our method is flexible and easily pluggable into existing softmax-based baselines and gains 33.33\% OOD F1 improvements with increasing only 0.41\% inference time compared to MSP. Further analyses show the effectiveness of Bayesian learning for OOD detection.


Learned reconstruction methods with convergence guarantees

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In recent years, deep learning has achieved remarkable empirical success for image reconstruction. This has catalyzed an ongoing quest for precise characterization of correctness and reliability of data-driven methods in critical use-cases, for instance in medical imaging. Notwithstanding the excellent performance and efficacy of deep learning-based methods, concerns have been raised regarding their stability, or lack thereof, with serious practical implications. Significant advances have been made in recent years to unravel the inner workings of data-driven image recovery methods, challenging their widely perceived black-box nature. In this article, we will specify relevant notions of convergence for data-driven image reconstruction, which will form the basis of a survey of learned methods with mathematically rigorous reconstruction guarantees. An example that is highlighted is the role of ICNN, offering the possibility to combine the power of deep learning with classical convex regularization theory for devising methods that are provably convergent. This survey article is aimed at both methodological researchers seeking to advance the frontiers of our understanding of data-driven image reconstruction methods as well as practitioners, by providing an accessible description of useful convergence concepts and by placing some of the existing empirical practices on a solid mathematical foundation.


Stochastic first-order methods for average-reward Markov decision processes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study the problem of average-reward Markov decision processes (AMDPs) and develop novel first-order methods with strong theoretical guarantees for both policy evaluation and optimization. Existing on-policy evaluation methods suffer from sub-optimal convergence rates as well as failure in handling insufficiently random policies, e.g., deterministic policies, for lack of exploration. To remedy these issues, we develop a novel variance-reduced temporal difference (VRTD) method with linear function approximation for randomized policies along with sharp convergence guarantees, and an exploratory variance-reduced temporal difference (EVRTD) method for insufficiently random policies with comparable convergence guarantees. We further establish linear convergence rate on the bias of policy evaluation, which is essential for improving the overall sample complexity of policy optimization. On the other hand, compared with intensive research interest in finite sample analysis of policy gradient methods for discounted MDPs, existing studies on policy gradient methods for AMDPs mostly focus on regret bounds under restrictive assumptions on the underlying Markov processes (see, e.g., Abbasi-Yadkori et al., 2019), and they often lack guarantees on the overall sample complexities. Towards this end, we develop an average-reward variant of the stochastic policy mirror descent (SPMD) (Lan, 2022). We establish the first $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\epsilon^{-2})$ sample complexity for solving AMDPs with policy gradient method under both the generative model (with unichain assumption) and Markovian noise model (with ergodic assumption). This bound can be further improved to $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\epsilon^{-1})$ for solving regularized AMDPs. Our theoretical advantages are corroborated by numerical experiments.


A Survey on the application of Data Science And Analytics in the field of Organised Sports

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Data Science and Analytics have Basketball, Soccer, Tennis, and Cricket. In the modern world, optimized almost every domain that exists in the market. In Sports Analytics is found to be used in almost every our survey we tend to focus mainly how the field of organized sport that is played. Today, we have Sports Analytics has been adopted in the field of sports, how it has Analytics put into use in all primary sports right from Team-contributed to the transformation of the game right from the Selection and On-ground Decision making to business assessment of on-field players and their selection to aspects of the sport. The development of this domain had its prediction of winning team and to the marketing of tickets roots primarily from Statistics, Game Theory, and Decision and business aspects of big sports tournaments. We will Theory, and today, the field also uses Machine Learning and present the analytical tools, algorithms and methodologies Modern Analytical Approaches to decisions on the team and adopted in the field of Sports Analytics for different sports the game itself.


Unifying Causal Inference and Reinforcement Learning using Higher-Order Category Theory

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Causal inference (Pearl, 2009a; Imbens and Rubin, 2015; Spirtes et al., 2000) and predictive state representations (PSRs) (Singh et al., 2004) in reinforcement learning (Sutton and Barto, 1998), whose roots go back to earlier work on subspace identification in linear systems (Van Overschee and De Moor, 1996) and even earlier work on algebraic theories of context-free languages Chomsky and Schützenberger (1963) and algebraic automata theory (Give'on and Arbib, 1968), both involve structure discovery of a latent variable model through interventions. The use of superficially dissimilar representations - directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) (Pearl, 1989), hybrid undirected and directed graphs (Lauritzen and Richardson, 2002) and hyperedge graphs (Forré and Mooij, 2017; Evans, 2018) in causal inference, versus Hankel matrix and Hilbert space embeddings of dynamical systems - have long obscured their deeper connections. Structure discovery in causal inference and PSRs both involve the determination of a latent structure, which is directional at lower orders, but homotopy equivalences at higher orders induce symmetries. In particular, causal inference involves determining a structure, such as a DAG that encodes direct causal effects between a pair of objects, but multiple DAG models are equivalent because of symmetries induced by conditional independences (Dawid, 2001; Studený et al., 2010a) and correlations induced by latent unobservable confounders that are only revealed over higher-order simplices (e.g., DAGs over n 3 vertices). PSRs represent "hidden state" in dynamical systems by constructing a series of tests,


OCR for TIFF Compressed Document Images Directly in Compressed Domain Using Text segmentation and Hidden Markov Model

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In today's technological era, document images play an important and integral part in our day to day life, and specifically with the surge of Covid-19, digitally scanned documents have become key source of communication, thus avoiding any sort of infection through physical contact. Storage and transmission of scanned document images is a very memory intensive task, hence compression techniques are being used to reduce the image size before archival and transmission. To extract information or to operate on the compressed images, we have two ways of doing it. The first way is to decompress the image and operate on it and subsequently compress it again for the efficiency of storage and transmission. The other way is to use the characteristics of the underlying compression algorithm to directly process the images in their compressed form without involving decompression and re-compression. In this paper, we propose a novel idea of developing an OCR for CCITT (The International Telegraph and Telephone Consultative Committee) compressed machine printed TIFF document images directly in the compressed domain. After segmenting text regions into lines and words, HMM is applied for recognition using three coding modes of CCITT- horizontal, vertical and the pass mode. Experimental results show that OCR on pass modes give a promising results.


A Review and Roadmap of Deep Learning Causal Discovery in Different Variable Paradigms

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Understanding causality helps to structure interventions to achieve specific goals and enables predictions under interventions. With the growing importance of learning causal relationships, causal discovery tasks have transitioned from using traditional methods to infer potential causal structures from observational data to the field of pattern recognition involved in deep learning. The rapid accumulation of massive data promotes the emergence of causal search methods with brilliant scalability. Existing summaries of causal discovery methods mainly focus on traditional methods based on constraints, scores and FCMs, there is a lack of perfect sorting and elaboration for deep learning-based methods, also lacking some considers and exploration of causal discovery methods from the perspective of variable paradigms. Therefore, we divide the possible causal discovery tasks into three types according to the variable paradigm and give the definitions of the three tasks respectively, define and instantiate the relevant datasets for each task and the final causal model constructed at the same time, then reviews the main existing causal discovery methods for different tasks. Finally, we propose some roadmaps from different perspectives for the current research gaps in the field of causal discovery and point out future research directions.


A pragmatic account of the weak evidence effect

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Language is not only used to transmit neutral information; we often seek to persuade by arguing in favor of a particular view. Persuasion raises a number of challenges for classical accounts of belief updating, as information cannot be taken at face value. How should listeners account for a speaker's "hidden agenda" when incorporating new information? Here, we extend recent probabilistic models of recursive social reasoning to allow for persuasive goals and show that our model provides a pragmatic account for why weakly favorable arguments may backfire, a phenomenon known as the weak evidence effect. Critically, this model predicts a systematic relationship between belief updates and expectations about the information source: weak evidence should only backfire when speakers are expected to act under persuasive goals and prefer the strongest evidence. We introduce a simple experimental paradigm called the Stick Contest to measure the extent to which the weak evidence effect depends on speaker expectations, and show that a pragmatic listener model accounts for the empirical data better than alternative models. Our findings suggest further avenues for rational models of social reasoning to illuminate classical decision-making phenomena.


Socially Enhanced Situation Awareness from Microblogs using Artificial Intelligence: A Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rise of social media platforms provides an unbounded, infinitely rich source of aggregate knowledge of the world around us, both historic and real-time, from a human perspective. The greatest challenge we face is how to process and understand this raw and unstructured data, go beyond individual observations and see the "big picture"--the domain of Situation Awareness. We provide an extensive survey of Artificial Intelligence research, focusing on microblog social media data with applications to Situation Awareness, that gives the seminal work and state-of-the-art approaches across six thematic areas: Crime, Disasters, Finance, Physical Environment, Politics, and Health and Population. We provide a novel, unified methodological perspective, identify key results and challenges, and present ongoing research directions.