Probabilistic models such as Gaussian processes (GPs) are powerful tools to learn unknown dynamical systems from data for subsequent use in control design. While learning-based control has the potential to yield superior performance in demanding applications, robustness to uncertainty remains an important challenge. Since Bayesian methods quantify uncertainty of the learning results, it is natural to incorporate these uncertainties into a robust design. In contrast to most state-of-the-art approaches that consider worst-case estimates, we leverage the learning method's posterior distribution in the controller synthesis. The result is a more informed and, thus, more efficient trade-off between performance and robustness. We present a novel controller synthesis for linearized GP dynamics that yields robust controllers with respect to a probabilistic stability margin. The formulation is based on a recently proposed algorithm for linear quadratic control synthesis, which we extend by giving probabilistic robustness guarantees in the form of credibility bounds for the system's stability.Comparisons to existing methods based on worst-case and certainty-equivalence designs reveal superior performance and robustness properties of the proposed method.

Graph-to-text (G2T) generation and text-to-graph (T2G) triple extraction are two essential tasks for constructing and applying knowledge graphs. Existing unsupervised approaches turn out to be suitable candidates for jointly learning the two tasks due to their avoidance of using graph-text parallel data. However, they are composed of multiple modules and still require both entity information and relation type in the training process. To this end, we propose INFINITY, a simple yet effective unsupervised approach that does not require external annotation tools or additional parallel information. It achieves fully unsupervised graph-text mutual conversion for the first time. Specifically, INFINITY treats both G2T and T2G as a bidirectional sequence generation task by fine-tuning only one pretrained seq2seq model. A novel back-translation-based framework is then designed to automatically generate continuous synthetic parallel data. To obtain reasonable graph sequences with structural information from source texts, INFINITY employs reward-based training loss by leveraging the advantage of reward augmented maximum likelihood. As a fully unsupervised framework, INFINITY is empirically verified to outperform state-of-the-art baselines for G2T and T2G tasks.

We consider the problem of explaining a class of tractable deep probabilistic models, the Sum-Product Networks (SPNs) and present an algorithm EX SPN to generate explanations. To this effect, we define the notion of a context-specific independence tree(CSI-tree) and present an iterative algorithm that converts an SPN to a CSI-tree. The resulting CSI-tree is both interpretable and explainable to the domain expert. We achieve this by extracting the conditional independencies encoded by the SPN and approximating the local context specified by the structure of the SPN. Our extensive empirical evaluations on synthetic, standard, and real-world clinical data sets demonstrate that the CSI-tree exhibits superior explainability.

Noisy sensing, imperfect control, and environment changes are defining characteristics of many real-world robot tasks. The partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) provides a principled mathematical framework for modeling and solving robot decision and control tasks under uncertainty. Over the last decade, it has seen many successful applications, spanning localization and navigation, search and tracking, autonomous driving, multi-robot systems, manipulation, and human-robot interaction. This survey aims to bridge the gap between the development of POMDP models and algorithms at one end and application to diverse robot decision tasks at the other. It analyzes the characteristics of these tasks and connects them with the mathematical and algorithmic properties of the POMDP framework for effective modeling and solution. For practitioners, the survey provides some of the key task characteristics in deciding when and how to apply POMDPs to robot tasks successfully. For POMDP algorithm designers, the survey provides new insights into the unique challenges of applying POMDPs to robot systems and points to promising new directions for further research.

Deep learning transformers have drastically improved systems that automatically answer questions in natural language. However, different questions demand different answering techniques; here we propose, build and validate an architecture that integrates different modules to answer two distinct kinds of queries. Our architecture takes a free-form natural language text and classifies it to send it either to a Neural Question Answering Reasoner or a Natural Language parser to SQL. We implemented a complete system for the Portuguese language, using some of the main tools available for the language and translating training and testing datasets. Experiments show that our system selects the appropriate answering method with high accuracy (over 99\%), thus validating a modular question answering strategy.

Considering two decision-making tasks $A$ and $B$, each of which wishes to compute an effective \textit{decision} $Y$ for a given \textit{query} $X$, {can we solve task $B$ by using query-decision pairs $(X, Y)$ of $A$ without knowing the latent decision-making model?} Such problems, called \textit{inverse decision-making with task migrations}, are of interest in that the complex and stochastic nature of real-world applications often prevents the agent from completely knowing the underlying system. In this paper, we introduce such a new problem with formal formulations and present a generic framework for addressing decision-making tasks in social contagion management. On the theory side, we present a generalization analysis for justifying the learning performance of our framework. In empirical studies, we perform a sanity check and compare the presented method with other possible learning-based and graph-based methods. We have acquired promising experimental results, confirming for the first time that it is possible to solve one decision-making task by using the solutions associated with another one.

LCRL is a software tool that implements model-free Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms over unknown Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), synthesising policies that satisfy a given linear temporal specification with maximal probability. LCRL leverages partially deterministic finite-state machines known as Limit Deterministic Buchi Automata (LDBA) to express a given linear temporal specification. A reward function for the RL algorithm is shaped on-the-fly, based on the structure of the LDBA. Theoretical guarantees under proper assumptions ensure the convergence of the RL algorithm to an optimal policy that maximises the satisfaction probability. We present case studies to demonstrate the applicability, ease of use, scalability, and performance of LCRL. Owing to the LDBA-guided exploration and LCRL model-free architecture, we observe robust performance, which also scales well when compared to standard RL approaches (whenever applicable to LTL specifications). Full instructions on how to execute all the case studies in this paper are provided on a GitHub page that accompanies the LCRL distribution www.github.com/grockious/lcrl.

Addressing such diverse ends as safety alignment with human preferences, and the efficiency of learning, a growing line of reinforcement learning research focuses on risk functionals that depend on the entire distribution of returns. Recent work on \emph{off-policy risk assessment} (OPRA) for contextual bandits introduced consistent estimators for the target policy's CDF of returns along with finite sample guarantees that extend to (and hold simultaneously over) all risk. In this paper, we lift OPRA to Markov decision processes (MDPs), where importance sampling (IS) CDF estimators suffer high variance on longer trajectories due to small effective sample size. To mitigate these problems, we incorporate model-based estimation to develop the first doubly robust (DR) estimator for the CDF of returns in MDPs. This estimator enjoys significantly less variance and, when the model is well specified, achieves the Cramer-Rao variance lower bound. Moreover, for many risk functionals, the downstream estimates enjoy both lower bias and lower variance. Additionally, we derive the first minimax lower bounds for off-policy CDF and risk estimation, which match our error bounds up to a constant factor. Finally, we demonstrate the precision of our DR CDF estimates experimentally on several different environments.

Extreme events in society and nature, such as pandemic spikes, rogue waves, or structural failures, can have catastrophic consequences. Characterizing extremes is difficult as they occur rarely, arise from seemingly benign conditions, and belong to complex and often unknown infinite-dimensional systems. Such challenges render attempts at characterizing them as moot. We address each of these difficulties by combining novel training schemes in Bayesian experimental design (BED) with an ensemble of deep neural operators (DNOs). This model-agnostic framework pairs a BED scheme that actively selects data for quantifying extreme events with an ensemble of DNOs that approximate infinite-dimensional nonlinear operators. We find that not only does this framework clearly beat Gaussian processes (GPs) but that 1) shallow ensembles of just two members perform best; 2) extremes are uncovered regardless of the state of initial data (i.e. with or without extremes); 3) our method eliminates "double-descent" phenomena; 4) the use of batches of suboptimal acquisition points compared to step-by-step global optima does not hinder BED performance; and 5) Monte Carlo acquisition outperforms standard optimizers in high-dimensions. Together these conclusions form the foundation of an AI-assisted experimental infrastructure that can efficiently infer and pinpoint critical situations across many domains, from physical to societal systems.

Naive Bayes has been widely used in many applications because of its simplicity and ability in handling both numerical data and categorical data. However, lack of modeling of correlations between features limits its performance. In addition, noise and outliers in the real-world dataset also greatly degrade the classification performance. In this paper, we propose a feature augmentation method employing a stack auto-encoder to reduce the noise in the data and boost the discriminant power of naive Bayes. The proposed stack auto-encoder consists of two auto-encoders for different purposes. The first encoder shrinks the initial features to derive a compact feature representation in order to remove the noise and redundant information. The second encoder boosts the discriminant power of the features by expanding them into a higher-dimensional space so that different classes of samples could be better separated in the higher-dimensional space. By integrating the proposed feature augmentation method with the regularized naive Bayes, the discrimination power of the model is greatly enhanced. The proposed method is evaluated on a set of machine-learning benchmark datasets. The experimental results show that the proposed method significantly and consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art naive Bayes classifiers.