We rigorously prove that deep Gaussian process priors can outperform Gaussian process priors if the target function has a compositional structure. To this end, we study information-theoretic lower bounds for posterior contraction rates for Gaussian process regression in a continuous regression model. We show that if the true function is a generalized additive function, then the posterior based on any mean-zero Gaussian process can only recover the truth at a rate that is strictly slower than the minimax rate by a factor that is polynomially suboptimal in the sample size $n$.

The level of autonomy is increasing in systems spanning multiple domains, but these systems still experience failures. One way to mitigate the risk of failures is to integrate human oversight of the autonomous systems and rely on the human to take control when the autonomy fails. In this work, we formulate a method of collaborative decision making through action suggestions that improves action selection without taking control of the system. Our approach uses each suggestion efficiently by incorporating the implicit information shared through suggestions to modify the agent's belief and achieves better performance with fewer suggestions than naively following the suggested actions. We assume collaborative agents share the same objective and communicate through valid actions. By assuming the suggested action is dependent only on the state, we can incorporate the suggested action as an independent observation of the environment. The assumption of a collaborative environment enables us to use the agent's policy to estimate the distribution over action suggestions. We propose two methods that use suggested actions and demonstrate the approach through simulated experiments. The proposed methodology results in increased performance while also being robust to suboptimal suggestions.

Surrogate models are used to alleviate the computational burden in engineering tasks, which require the repeated evaluation of computationally demanding models of physical systems, such as the efficient propagation of uncertainties. For models that show a strongly non-linear dependence on their input parameters, standard surrogate techniques, such as polynomial chaos expansion, are not sufficient to obtain an accurate representation of the original model response. Through applying a rational approximation instead, the approximation error can be efficiently reduced for models whose non-linearity is accurately described through a rational function. Specifically, our aim is to approximate complex-valued models. A common approach to obtain the coefficients in the surrogate is to minimize the sample-based error between model and surrogate in the least-square sense. In order to obtain an accurate representation of the original model and to avoid overfitting, the sample set has be two to three times the number of polynomial terms in the expansion. For models that require a high polynomial degree or are high-dimensional in terms of their input parameters, this number often exceeds the affordable computational cost. To overcome this issue, we apply a sparse Bayesian learning approach to the rational approximation. Through a specific prior distribution structure, sparsity is induced in the coefficients of the surrogate model. The denominator polynomial coefficients as well as the hyperparameters of the problem are determined through a type-II-maximum likelihood approach. We apply a quasi-Newton gradient-descent algorithm in order to find the optimal denominator coefficients and derive the required gradients through application of $\mathbb{CR}$-calculus.

The increasing adoption of Digital Assets (DAs), such as Bitcoin (BTC), rises the need for accurate option pricing models. Yet, existing methodologies fail to cope with the volatile nature of the emerging DAs. Many models have been proposed to address the unorthodox market dynamics and frequent disruptions in the microstructure caused by the non-stationarity, and peculiar statistics, in DA markets. However, they are either prone to the curse of dimensionality, as additional complexity is required to employ traditional theories, or they overfit historical patterns that may never repeat. Instead, we leverage recent advances in market regime (MR) clustering with the Implied Stochastic Volatility Model (ISVM). Time-regime clustering is a temporal clustering method, that clusters the historic evolution of a market into different volatility periods accounting for non-stationarity. ISVM can incorporate investor expectations in each of the sentiment-driven periods by using implied volatility (IV) data. In this paper, we applied this integrated time-regime clustering and ISVM method (termed MR-ISVM) to high-frequency data on BTC options at the popular trading platform Deribit. We demonstrate that MR-ISVM contributes to overcome the burden of complex adaption to jumps in higher order characteristics of option pricing models. This allows us to price the market based on the expectations of its participants in an adaptive fashion.

Experimental data is costly to obtain, which makes it difficult to calibrate complex models. For many models an experimental design that produces the best calibration given a limited experimental budget is not obvious. This paper introduces a deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm for design of experiments that maximizes the information gain measured by Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence obtained via the Kalman filter (KF). This combination enables experimental design for rapid online experiments where traditional methods are too costly. We formulate possible configurations of experiments as a decision tree and a Markov decision process (MDP), where a finite choice of actions is available at each incremental step. Once an action is taken, a variety of measurements are used to update the state of the experiment. This new data leads to a Bayesian update of the parameters by the KF, which is used to enhance the state representation. In contrast to the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) index, which requires additional sampling to test hypotheses for forward predictions, the KF can lower the cost of experiments by directly estimating the values of new data acquired through additional actions. In this work our applications focus on mechanical testing of materials. Numerical experiments with complex, history-dependent models are used to verify the implementation and benchmark the performance of the RL-designed experiments.

Ensemble weather forecasts based on multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models typically show systematic errors and require post-processing to obtain reliable forecasts. Accurately modeling multivariate dependencies is crucial in many practical applications, and various approaches to multivariate post-processing have been proposed where ensemble predictions are first post-processed separately in each margin and multivariate dependencies are then restored via copulas. These two-step methods share common key limitations, in particular the difficulty to include additional predictors in modeling the dependencies. We propose a novel multivariate post-processing method based on generative machine learning to address these challenges. In this new class of nonparametric data-driven distributional regression models, samples from the multivariate forecast distribution are directly obtained as output of a generative neural network. The generative model is trained by optimizing a proper scoring rule which measures the discrepancy between the generated and observed data, conditional on exogenous input variables. Our method does not require parametric assumptions on univariate distributions or multivariate dependencies and allows for incorporating arbitrary predictors. In two case studies on multivariate temperature and wind speed forecasting at weather stations over Germany, our generative model shows significant improvements over state-of-the-art methods and particularly improves the representation of spatial dependencies.

Graph clustering is the process of grouping vertices into densely connected sets called clusters. We tailor two mathematical programming formulations from the literature, to this problem. In doing so, we obtain a heuristic approximation to the intra-cluster density maximization problem. We use two variations of a Boltzmann machine heuristic to obtain numerical solutions. For benchmarking purposes, we compare solution quality and computational performances to those obtained using a commercial solver, Gurobi. We also compare clustering quality to the clusters obtained using the popular Louvain modularity maximization method. Our initial results clearly demonstrate the superiority of our problem formulations. They also establish the superiority of the Boltzmann machine over the traditional exact solver. In the case of smaller less complex graphs, Boltzmann machines provide the same solutions as Gurobi, but with solution times that are orders of magnitude lower. In the case of larger and more complex graphs, Gurobi fails to return meaningful results within a reasonable time frame. Finally, we also note that both our clustering formulations, the distance minimization and $K$-medoids, yield clusters of superior quality to those obtained with the Louvain algorithm.

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a Markov chain algorithm for sampling from a high-dimensional distribution with density $e^{-f(x)}$, given access to the gradient of $f$. A particular case of interest is that of a $d$-dimensional Gaussian distribution with covariance matrix $\Sigma$, in which case $f(x) = x^\top \Sigma^{-1} x$. We show that HMC can sample from a distribution that is $\varepsilon$-close in total variation distance using $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{\kappa} d^{1/4} \log(1/\varepsilon))$ gradient queries, where $\kappa$ is the condition number of $\Sigma$. Our algorithm uses long and random integration times for the Hamiltonian dynamics. This contrasts with (and was motivated by) recent results that give an $\widetilde\Omega(\kappa d^{1/2})$ query lower bound for HMC with fixed integration times, even for the Gaussian case.

When dealing with clinical text classification on a small dataset recent studies have confirmed that a well-tuned multilayer perceptron outperforms other generative classifiers, including deep learning ones. To increase the performance of the neural network classifier, feature selection for the learning representation can effectively be used. However, most feature selection methods only estimate the degree of linear dependency between variables and select the best features based on univariate statistical tests. Furthermore, the sparsity of the feature space involved in the learning representation is ignored. Goal: Our aim is therefore to access an alternative approach to tackle the sparsity by compressing the clinical representation feature space, where limited French clinical notes can also be dealt with effectively. Methods: This study proposed an autoencoder learning algorithm to take advantage of sparsity reduction in clinical note representation. The motivation was to determine how to compress sparse, high-dimensional data by reducing the dimension of the clinical note representation feature space. The classification performance of the classifiers was then evaluated in the trained and compressed feature space. Results: The proposed approach provided overall performance gains of up to 3% for each evaluation. Finally, the classifier achieved a 92% accuracy, 91% recall, 91% precision, and 91% f1-score in detecting the patient's condition. Furthermore, the compression working mechanism and the autoencoder prediction process were demonstrated by applying the theoretic information bottleneck framework.

Outlier detection tasks have been playing a critical role in AI safety. There has been a great challenge to deal with this task. Observations show that deep neural network classifiers usually tend to incorrectly classify out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs into in-distribution classes with high confidence. Existing works attempt to solve the problem by explicitly imposing uncertainty on classifiers when OOD inputs are exposed to the classifier during training. In this paper, we propose an alternative probabilistic paradigm that is both practically useful and theoretically viable for the OOD detection tasks. Particularly, we impose statistical independence between inlier and outlier data during training, in order to ensure that inlier data reveals little information about OOD data to the deep estimator during training. Specifically, we estimate the statistical dependence between inlier and outlier data through the Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC), and we penalize such metric during training. We also associate our approach with a novel statistical test during the inference time coupled with our principled motivation. Empirical results show that our method is effective and robust for OOD detection on various benchmarks. In comparison to SOTA models, our approach achieves significant improvement regarding FPR95, AUROC, and AUPR metrics. Code is available: \url{https://github.com/jylins/hood}.