IceCube, a cubic-kilometer array of optical sensors built to detect atmospheric and astrophysical neutrinos between 1 GeV and 1 PeV, is deployed 1.45 km to 2.45 km below the surface of the ice sheet at the South Pole. The classification and reconstruction of events from the in-ice detectors play a central role in the analysis of data from IceCube. Reconstructing and classifying events is a challenge due to the irregular detector geometry, inhomogeneous scattering and absorption of light in the ice and, below 100 GeV, the relatively low number of signal photons produced per event. To address this challenge, it is possible to represent IceCube events as point cloud graphs and use a Graph Neural Network (GNN) as the classification and reconstruction method. The GNN is capable of distinguishing neutrino events from cosmic-ray backgrounds, classifying different neutrino event types, and reconstructing the deposited energy, direction and interaction vertex. Based on simulation, we provide a comparison in the 1-100 GeV energy range to the current state-of-the-art maximum likelihood techniques used in current IceCube analyses, including the effects of known systematic uncertainties. For neutrino event classification, the GNN increases the signal efficiency by 18% at a fixed false positive rate (FPR), compared to current IceCube methods. Alternatively, the GNN offers a reduction of the FPR by over a factor 8 (to below half a percent) at a fixed signal efficiency. For the reconstruction of energy, direction, and interaction vertex, the resolution improves by an average of 13%-20% compared to current maximum likelihood techniques in the energy range of 1-30 GeV. The GNN, when run on a GPU, is capable of processing IceCube events at a rate nearly double of the median IceCube trigger rate of 2.7 kHz, which opens the possibility of using low energy neutrinos in online searches for transient events.

The vector autoregressive (VAR) model has been used to describe the dependence within and across multiple time series. This is a model for stationary time series which can be extended to allow the presence of a deterministic trend in each series. Detrending the data either parametrically or nonparametrically before fitting the VAR model gives rise to more errors in the latter part. In this study, we propose a new approach called DeepVARwT that employs deep learning methodology for maximum likelihood estimation of the trend and the dependence structure at the same time. A Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network is used for this purpose. To ensure the stability of the model, we enforce the causality condition on the autoregressive coefficients using the transformation of Ansley & Kohn (1986). We provide a simulation study and an application to real data. In the simulation study, we use realistic trend functions generated from real data and compare the estimates with true function/parameter values. In the real data application, we compare the prediction performance of this model with state-of-the-art models in the literature.

Although several datasets annotated for anaphoric reference/coreference exist, even the largest such datasets have limitations in terms of size, range of domains, coverage of anaphoric phenomena, and size of documents included. Yet, the approaches proposed to scale up anaphoric annotation haven't so far resulted in datasets overcoming these limitations. In this paper, we introduce a new release of a corpus for anaphoric reference labelled via a game-with-a-purpose. This new release is comparable in size to the largest existing corpora for anaphoric reference due in part to substantial activity by the players, in part thanks to the use of a new resolve-and-aggregate paradigm to 'complete' markable annotations through the combination of an anaphoric resolver and an aggregation method for anaphoric reference. The proposed method could be adopted to greatly speed up annotation time in other projects involving games-with-a-purpose. In addition, the corpus covers genres for which no comparable size datasets exist (Fiction and Wikipedia); it covers singletons and non-referring expressions; and it includes a substantial number of long documents (> 2K in length).

In this paper, we provide a novel strategy for solving Traveling Salesman Problem, which is a famous combinatorial optimization problem studied intensely in the TCS community. In particular, we consider the imitation learning framework, which helps a deterministic algorithm making good choices whenever it needs to, resulting in a speed up while maintaining the exactness of the solution without suffering from the unpredictability and a potential large deviation. Furthermore, we demonstrate a strong generalization ability of a graph neural network trained under the imitation learning framework. Specifically, the model is capable of solving a large instance of TSP faster than the baseline while has only seen small TSP instances when training.

Few-shot dialogue state tracking (DST) is a realistic problem that trains the DST model with limited labeled data. Existing few-shot methods mainly transfer knowledge learned from external labeled dialogue data (e.g., from question answering, dialogue summarization, machine reading comprehension tasks, etc.) into DST, whereas collecting a large amount of external labeled data is laborious, and the external data may not effectively contribute to the DST-specific task. In this paper, we propose a few-shot DST framework called CSS, which Combines Self-training and Self-supervised learning methods. The unlabeled data of the DST task is incorporated into the self-training iterations, where the pseudo labels are predicted by a DST model trained on limited labeled data in advance. Besides, a contrastive self-supervised method is used to learn better representations, where the data is augmented by the dropout operation to train the model. Experimental results on the MultiWOZ dataset show that our proposed CSS achieves competitive performance in several few-shot scenarios.

This paper presents novel generalization bounds for the multi-kernel learning problem. Motivated by applications in sensor networks and spatial-temporal models, we assume that the dataset is mixed where each sample is taken from a finite pool of Markov chains. Our bounds for learning kernels admit $O(\sqrt{\log m})$ dependency on the number of base kernels and $O(1/\sqrt{n})$ dependency on the number of training samples. However, some $O(1/\sqrt{n})$ terms are added to compensate for the dependency among samples compared with existing generalization bounds for multi-kernel learning with i.i.d. datasets.

Consider making a prediction over new test data without any opportunity to learn from a training set of labelled data - instead given access to a set of expert models and their predictions alongside some limited information about the dataset used to train them. In scenarios from finance to the medical sciences, and even consumer practice, stakeholders have developed models on private data they either cannot, or do not want to, share. Given the value and legislation surrounding personal information, it is not surprising that only the models, and not the data, will be released - the pertinent question becoming: how best to use these models? Previous work has focused on global model selection or ensembling, with the result of a single final model across the feature space. Machine learning models perform notoriously poorly on data outside their training domain however, and so we argue that when ensembling models the weightings for individual instances must reflect their respective domains - in other words models that are more likely to have seen information on that instance should have more attention paid to them. We introduce a method for such an instance-wise ensembling of models, including a novel representation learning step for handling sparse high-dimensional domains. Finally, we demonstrate the need and generalisability of our method on classical machine learning tasks as well as highlighting a real world use case in the pharmacological setting of vancomycin precision dosing.

Over the last century, risk scores have been the most popular form of predictive model used in healthcare and criminal justice. Risk scores are sparse linear models with integer coefficients; often these models can be memorized or placed on an index card. Typically, risk scores have been created either without data or by rounding logistic regression coefficients, but these methods do not reliably produce high-quality risk scores. Recent work used mathematical programming, which is computationally slow. We introduce an approach for efficiently producing a collection of high-quality risk scores learned from data. Specifically, our approach produces a pool of almost-optimal sparse continuous solutions, each with a different support set, using a beam-search algorithm. Each of these continuous solutions is transformed into a separate risk score through a "star ray" search, where a range of multipliers are considered before rounding the coefficients sequentially to maintain low logistic loss. Our algorithm returns all of these high-quality risk scores for the user to consider. This method completes within minutes and can be valuable in a broad variety of applications.

If capable AI agents are generally incentivized to seek power in service of the objectives we specify for them, then these systems will pose enormous risks, in addition to enormous benefits. In fully observable environments, most reward functions have an optimal policy which seeks power by keeping options open and staying alive. However, the real world is neither fully observable, nor must trained agents be even approximately reward-optimal. We consider a range of models of AI decision-making, from optimal, to random, to choices informed by learning and interacting with an environment. We discover that many decision-making functions are retargetable, and that retargetability is sufficient to cause power-seeking tendencies. Our functional criterion is simple and broad. We show that a range of qualitatively dissimilar decision-making procedures incentivize agents to seek power. We demonstrate the flexibility of our results by reasoning about learned policy incentives in Montezuma's Revenge. These results suggest a safety risk: Eventually, retargetable training procedures may train real-world agents which seek power over humans.

Bayesian deep learning plays an important role especially for its ability evaluating epistemic uncertainty (EU). Due to computational complexity issues, approximation methods such as variational inference (VI) have been used in practice to obtain posterior distributions and their generalization abilities have been analyzed extensively, for example, by PAC-Bayesian theory; however, little analysis exists on EU, although many numerical experiments have been conducted on it. In this study, we analyze the EU of supervised learning in approximate Bayesian inference by focusing on its excess risk. First, we theoretically show the novel relations between generalization error and the widely used EU measurements, such as the variance and mutual information of predictive distribution, and derive their convergence behaviors. Next, we clarify how the objective function of VI regularizes the EU. With this analysis, we propose a new objective function for VI that directly controls the prediction performance and the EU based on the PAC-Bayesian theory. Numerical experiments show that our algorithm significantly improves the EU evaluation over the existing VI methods.