Nonlinear dynamics are ubiquitous in science and engineering applications, but the physics of most complex systems is far from being fully understood. Discovering interpretable governing equations from measurement data can help us understand and predict the behavior of complex dynamic systems. Although extensive work has recently been done in this field, robustly distilling explicit model forms from very sparse data with considerable noise remains intractable. Moreover, quantifying and propagating the uncertainty of the identified system from noisy data is challenging, and relevant literature is still limited. To bridge this gap, we develop a novel Bayesian spline learning framework to identify parsimonious governing equations of nonlinear (spatio)temporal dynamics from sparse, noisy data with quantified uncertainty. The proposed method utilizes spline basis to handle the data scarcity and measurement noise, upon which a group of derivatives can be accurately computed to form a library of candidate model terms. The equation residuals are used to inform the spline learning in a Bayesian manner, where approximate Bayesian uncertainty calibration techniques are employed to approximate posterior distributions of the trainable parameters. To promote the sparsity, an iterative sequential-threshold Bayesian learning approach is developed, using the alternative direction optimization strategy to systematically approximate L0 sparsity constraints. The proposed algorithm is evaluated on multiple nonlinear dynamical systems governed by canonical ordinary and partial differential equations, and the merit/superiority of the proposed method is demonstrated by comparison with state-of-the-art methods.

Have you ever thought about what would happen if you combined the power of machine learning and artificial intelligence with financial engineering? Today, you can stop imagining, and start doing. This course will teach you the core fundamentals of financial engineering, with a machine learning twist. We will cover must-know topics in financial engineering, such as: Exploratory data analysis, significance testing, correlations, alpha and beta Time series analysis, simple moving average, exponentially-weighted moving average Holt-Winters exponential smoothing model Efficient Market Hypothesis Random Walk Hypothesis Time series forecasting ("stock price prediction") Modern portfolio theory Efficient frontier / Markowitz bullet Mean-variance optimization Maximizing the Sharpe ratio Convex optimization with Linear Programming and Quadratic Programming Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) Algorithmic trading (VIP only) Statistical Factor Models (VIP only) Regime Detection with Hidden Markov Models (VIP only) In addition, we will look at various non-traditional techniques which stem purely from the field of machine learning and artificial intelligence, such as: Classification models Unsupervised learning Reinforcement learning and Q-learning We will learn about the greatest flub made in the past decade by marketers posing as "machine learning experts" who promise to teach unsuspecting students how to "predict stock prices with LSTMs". You will learn exactly why their methodology is fundamentally flawed and why their results are complete nonsense.

Regime shifts in high-dimensional time series arise naturally in many applications, from neuroimaging to finance. This problem has received considerable attention in low-dimensional settings, with both Bayesian and frequentist methods used extensively for parameter estimation. The EM algorithm is a particularly popular strategy for parameter estimation in low-dimensional settings, although the statistical properties of the resulting estimates have not been well understood. Furthermore, its extension to high-dimensional time series has proved challenging. To overcome these challenges, in this paper we propose an approximate EM algorithm for Markov-switching VAR models that leads to efficient computation and also facilitates the investigation of asymptotic properties of the resulting parameter estimates. We establish the consistency of the proposed EM algorithm in high dimensions and investigate its performance via simulation studies.

This paper presents a fast algorithm for estimating hidden states of Bayesian state space models. The algorithm is a variation of amortized simulation-based inference algorithms, where a large number of artificial datasets are generated at the first stage, and then a flexible model is trained to predict the variables of interest. In contrast to those proposed earlier, the procedure described in this paper makes it possible to train estimators for hidden states by concentrating only on certain characteristics of the marginal posterior distributions and introducing inductive bias. Illustrations using the examples of the stochastic volatility model, nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, and seasonal adjustment procedure with breaks in seasonality show that the algorithm has sufficient accuracy for practical use. Moreover, after pretraining, which takes several hours, finding the posterior distribution for any dataset takes from hundredths to tenths of a second.

Most PAC-Bayesian bounds hold in the batch learning setting where data is collected at once, prior to inference or prediction. This somewhat departs from many contemporary learning problems where data streams are collected and the algorithms must dynamically adjust. We prove new PAC-Bayesian bounds in this online learning framework, leveraging an updated definition of regret, and we revisit classical PAC-Bayesian results with a batch-to-online conversion, extending their remit to the case of dependent data. Our results hold for bounded losses, potentially \emph{non-convex}, paving the way to promising developments in online learning.

Data augmentation is commonly applied to improve performance of deep learning by enforcing the knowledge that certain transformations on the input preserve the output. Currently, the data augmentation parameters are chosen by human effort and costly cross-validation, which makes it cumbersome to apply to new datasets. We develop a convenient gradient-based method for selecting the data augmentation without validation data during training of a deep neural network. Our approach relies on phrasing data augmentation as an invariance in the prior distribution on the functions of a neural network, which allows us to learn it using Bayesian model selection. This has been shown to work in Gaussian processes, but not yet for deep neural networks. We propose a differentiable Kronecker-factored Laplace approximation to the marginal likelihood as our objective, which can be optimised without human supervision or validation data. We show that our method can successfully recover invariances present in the data, and that this improves generalisation and data efficiency on image datasets.

Uncertainty quantification has received increasing attention in machine learning in the recent past. In particular, a distinction between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty has been found useful in this regard. The latter refers to the learner's (lack of) knowledge and appears to be especially difficult to measure and quantify. In this paper, we analyse a recent proposal based on the idea of a second-order learner, which yields predictions in the form of distributions over probability distributions. While standard (first-order) learners can be trained to predict accurate probabilities, namely by minimising suitable loss functions on sample data, we show that loss minimisation does not work for second-order predictors: The loss functions proposed for inducing such predictors do not incentivise the learner to represent its epistemic uncertainty in a faithful way.

We propose a practical integration of logical state abstraction with AIXI, a Bayesian optimality notion for reinforcement learning agents, to significantly expand the model class that AIXI agents can be approximated over to complex history-dependent and structured environments. The state representation and reasoning framework is based on higher-order logic, which can be used to define and enumerate complex features on non-Markovian and structured environments. We address the problem of selecting the right subset of features to form state abstractions by adapting the $\Phi$-MDP optimisation criterion from state abstraction theory. Exact Bayesian model learning is then achieved using a suitable generalisation of Context Tree Weighting over abstract state sequences. The resultant architecture can be integrated with different planning algorithms. Experimental results on controlling epidemics on large-scale contact networks validates the agent's performance.

This work identifies the existence and cause of a type of posterior collapse that frequently occurs in the Bayesian deep learning practice. For a general linear latent variable model that includes linear variational autoencoders as a special case, we precisely identify the nature of posterior collapse to be the competition between the likelihood and the regularization of the mean due to the prior. Our result suggests that posterior collapse may be related to neural collapse and dimensional collapse and could be a subclass of a general problem of learning for deeper architectures.

State-of-the-art Mixed Integer Linear Program (MILP) solvers combine systematic tree search with a plethora of hard-coded heuristics, such as the branching rule. The idea of learning branching rules from data has received increasing attention recently, and promising results have been obtained by learning fast approximations of the strong branching expert. In this work, we instead propose to learn branching rules from scratch via Reinforcement Learning (RL). We revisit the work of Etheve et al. (2020) and propose tree Markov Decision Processes, or tree MDPs, a generalization of temporal MDPs that provides a more suitable framework for learning to branch. We derive a tree policy gradient theorem, which exhibits a better credit assignment compared to its temporal counterpart. We demonstrate through computational experiments that tree MDPs improve the learning convergence, and offer a promising framework for tackling the learning-to-branch problem in MILPs.