Abstract: he link between Gaussian random fields and Markov random fields is well established based on a stochastic partial differential equation in Euclidean spaces, where the Matérn covariance functions are essential. However, the Matérn covariance functions are not always positive definite on circles and spheres. In this manuscript, we focus on the extension of this link to circles, and show that the link between Gaussian random fields and Markov random fields on circles is valid based on the circular Matérn covariance function instead. First, we show that this circular Matérn function is the covariance of the stationary solution to the stochastic differential equation on the circle with a formally defined white noise space measure. Then, for the corresponding conditional autoregressive model, we derive a closed form formula for its covariance function.

Neural Networks (NNs) have been widely {used in supervised learning} due to their ability to model complex nonlinear patterns, often presented in high-dimensional data such as images and text. However, traditional NNs often lack the ability for uncertainty quantification. Bayesian NNs (BNNS) could help measure the uncertainty by considering the distributions of the NN model parameters. Besides, domain knowledge is commonly available and could improve the performance of BNNs if it can be appropriately incorporated. In this work, we propose a novel Posterior-Regularized Bayesian Neural Network (PR-BNN) model by incorporating different types of knowledge constraints, such as the soft and hard constraints, as a posterior regularization term. Furthermore, we propose to combine the augmented Lagrangian method and the existing BNN solvers for efficient inference. The experiments in simulation and two case studies about aviation landing prediction and solar energy output prediction have shown the knowledge constraints and the performance improvement of the proposed model over traditional BNNs without the constraints.

Language models have demonstrated the ability to generate highly fluent text; however, it remains unclear whether their output retains coherent high-level structure (e.g., story progression). Here, we propose to apply a statistical tool, model criticism in latent space, to evaluate the high-level structure of the generated text. Model criticism compares the distributions between real and generated data in a latent space obtained according to an assumptive generative process. Different generative processes identify specific failure modes of the underlying model. We perform experiments on three representative aspects of high-level discourse -- coherence, coreference, and topicality -- and find that transformer-based language models are able to capture topical structures but have a harder time maintaining structural coherence or modeling coreference.

Constrained random test generation is one of the most widely adopted methods for generating stimuli for simulation-based verification. Randomness leads to test diversity, but tests tend to repeatedly exercise the same design logic. Constraints are written (typically manually) to bias random tests towards interesting, hard-to-reach, and yet-untested logic. However, as verification progresses, most constrained random tests yield little to no effect on functional coverage. If stimuli generation consumes significantly less resources than simulation, then a better approach involves randomly generating a large number of tests, selecting the most effective subset, and only simulating that subset. In this paper, we introduce a novel method for automatic constraint extraction and test selection. This method, which we call coverage-directed test selection, is based on supervised learning from coverage feedback. Our method biases selection towards tests that have a high probability of increasing functional coverage, and prioritises them for simulation. We show how coverage-directed test selection can reduce manual constraint writing, prioritise effective tests, reduce verification resource consumption, and accelerate coverage closure on a large, real-life industrial hardware design.

We study the problem of off-policy evaluation (OPE) for episodic Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) with continuous states. Motivated by the recently proposed proximal causal inference framework, we develop a non-parametric identification result for estimating the policy value via a sequence of so-called V-bridge functions with the help of time-dependent proxy variables. We then develop a fitted-Q-evaluation-type algorithm to estimate V-bridge functions recursively, where a non-parametric instrumental variable (NPIV) problem is solved at each step. By analyzing this challenging sequential NPIV problem, we establish the finite-sample error bounds for estimating the V-bridge functions and accordingly that for evaluating the policy value, in terms of the sample size, length of horizon and so-called (local) measure of ill-posedness at each step. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first finite-sample error bound for OPE in POMDPs under non-parametric models.

We propose a general framework to design posterior sampling methods for model-based RL. We show that the proposed algorithms can be analyzed by reducing regret to Hellinger distance in conditional probability estimation. We further show that optimistic posterior sampling can control this Hellinger distance, when we measure model error via data likelihood. This technique allows us to design and analyze unified posterior sampling algorithms with state-of-the-art sample complexity guarantees for many model-based RL settings. We illustrate our general result in many special cases, demonstrating the versatility of our framework.

Evaluations of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) methods are an integral part of scientific progress of the field. Beyond designing DRL methods for general intelligence, designing task-specific methods is becoming increasingly prominent for real-world applications. In these settings, the standard evaluation practice involves using a few instances of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) to represent the task. However, many tasks induce a large family of MDPs owing to variations in the underlying environment, particularly in real-world contexts. For example, in traffic signal control, variations may stem from intersection geometries and traffic flow levels. The select MDP instances may thus inadvertently cause overfitting, lacking the statistical power to draw conclusions about the method's true performance across the family. In this article, we augment DRL evaluations to consider parameterized families of MDPs. We show that in comparison to evaluating DRL methods on select MDP instances, evaluating the MDP family often yields a substantially different relative ranking of methods, casting doubt on what methods should be considered state-of-the-art. We validate this phenomenon in standard control benchmarks and the real-world application of traffic signal control. At the same time, we show that accurately evaluating on an MDP family is nontrivial. Overall, this work identifies new challenges for empirical rigor in reinforcement learning, especially as the outcomes of DRL trickle into downstream decision-making.

The cooperative Multi-A gent R einforcement Learning (MARL) with permutation invariant agents framework has achieved tremendous empirical successes in real-world applications. Unfortunately, the theoretical understanding of this MARL problem is lacking due to the curse of many agents and the limited exploration of the relational reasoning in existing works. In this paper, we verify that the transformer implements complex relational reasoning, and we propose and analyze model-free and model-based offline MARL algorithms with the transformer approximators. We prove that the suboptimality gaps of the model-free and model-based algorithms are independent of and logarithmic in the number of agents respectively, which mitigates the curse of many agents. These results are consequences of a novel generalization error bound of the transformer and a novel analysis of the Maximum Likelihood Estimate (MLE) of the system dynamics with the transformer. Our model-based algorithm is the first provably efficient MARL algorithm that explicitly exploits the permutation invariance of the agents. Our improved generalization bound may be of independent interest and is applicable to other regression problems related to the transformer beyond MARL.

The ability to generate synthetic data has a variety of use cases across different domains. In education research, there is a growing need to have access to synthetic data to test certain concepts and ideas. In recent years, several deep learning architectures were used to aid in the generation of synthetic data - but with varying results. In the education context, the sophistication of implementing different models requiring large datasets is becoming very important. This study aims to compare the application of synthetic tabular data generation between a probabilistic model specifically a Bayesian Network, and a deep learning model, specifically a Generative Adversarial Network using a classification task. The results of this study indicate that synthetic tabular data generation is better suited for the education context using probabilistic models (overall accuracy of 75%) than deep learning architecture (overall accuracy of 38%) because of probabilistic interdependence. Lastly, we recommend that other data types, should be explored and evaluated for their application in generating synthetic data for education use cases.

Monte Carlo (MC) integration is the de facto method for approximating the predictive distribution of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs). But, even with many MC samples, Gaussian-based BNNs could still yield bad predictive performance due to the posterior approximation's error. Meanwhile, alternatives to MC integration tend to be more expensive or biased. In this work, we experimentally show that the key to good MC-approximated predictive distributions is the quality of the approximate posterior itself. However, previous methods for obtaining accurate posterior approximations are expensive and non-trivial to implement. We, therefore, propose to refine Gaussian approximate posteriors with normalizing flows. When applied to last-layer BNNs, it yields a simple \emph{post hoc} method for improving pre-existing parametric approximations. We show that the resulting posterior approximation is competitive with even the gold-standard full-batch Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.