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Hardness in Markov Decision Processes: Theory and Practice

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Meticulously analysing the empirical strengths and weaknesses of reinforcement learning methods in hard (challenging) environments is essential to inspire innovations and assess progress in the field. In tabular reinforcement learning, there is no well-established standard selection of environments to conduct such analysis, which is partially due to the lack of a widespread understanding of the rich theory of hardness of environments. The goal of this paper is to unlock the practical usefulness of this theory through four main contributions. First, we present a systematic survey of the theory of hardness, which also identifies promising research directions. Second, we introduce Colosseum, a pioneering package that enables empirical hardness analysis and implements a principled benchmark composed of environments that are diverse with respect to different measures of hardness. Third, we present an empirical analysis that provides new insights into computable measures. Finally, we benchmark five tabular agents in our newly proposed benchmark. While advancing the theoretical understanding of hardness in non-tabular reinforcement learning remains essential, our contributions in the tabular setting are intended as solid steps towards a principled non-tabular benchmark. Accordingly, we benchmark four agents in non-tabular versions of Colosseum environments, obtaining results that demonstrate the generality of tabular hardness measures.


Bayesian Methods in Automated Vehicle's Car-following Uncertainties: Enabling Strategic Decision Making

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A critical element in the development and deployment of AVs is the design of car-following (CF) controllers capable of producing desirable performance in real-world settings. Ideally, a CF control system would effectively and safely handle the longitudinal maneuvers of the vehicle at every encounter it faces. However, designing and training such a controller requires enormous data, testing, and experimentation that covers all possible driving scenarios/encounters. In other words, it requires us to have a perfect understanding of the environment these AVs would be operating under. Clearly, this is very challenging and, possibly, unattainable. AVs are likely to encounter unseen scenarios and be exposed to exogenous and endogenous uncertainties in the physical world. The sources of exogenous and endogenous uncertainties are vast and roughly classified into (Macfarlane and Stroila, 2016; Yao et al., 2020; Katrakazas et al., 2015): (i) vehicular and system dynamics (e.g., vehicle condition, road gradient, aerodynamic drag force, external loads, transmission, brake, the performance of the engine, etc.), (ii) environmental conditions (snow, dust, wind, wet conditions, etc.), and (iii) situational detection (e.g., sensor/measurement errors, radar errors, vehicle speed fluctuations, vehicle localization, communication latency, etc.). All these types of uncertainties can hinder desirable performance (e.g., stability). Yet, a major challenge lies in the complexity of integrating these uncertainties into the control system and the design of the AV.


Machine and Deep Learning for IoT Security and Privacy: Applications, Challenges, and Future Directions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The integration of the Internet of Things (IoT) connects a number of intelligent devices with a minimum of human interference that can interact with one another. IoT is rapidly emerging in the areas of computer science. However, new security problems were posed by the cross-cutting design of the multidisciplinary elements and IoT systems involved in deploying such schemes. Ineffective is the implementation of security protocols, i.e., authentication, encryption, application security, and access network for IoT systems and their essential weaknesses in security. Current security approaches can also be improved to protect the IoT environment effectively. In recent years, deep learning (DL)/ machine learning (ML) has progressed significantly in various critical implementations. Therefore, DL/ML methods are essential to turn IoT systems protection from simply enabling safe contact between IoT systems to intelligence systems in security. This review aims to include an extensive analysis of ML systems and state-of-the-art developments in DL methods to improve enhanced IoT device protection methods. On the other hand, various new insights in machine and deep learning for IoT Securities illustrate how it could help future research. IoT protection risks relating to emerging or essential threats are identified, as well as future IoT device attacks and possible threats associated with each surface. We then carefully analyze DL and ML IoT protection approaches and present each approach's benefits, possibilities, and weaknesses. This review discusses a number of potential challenges and limitations. The future works, recommendations, and suggestions of DL/ML in IoT security are also included.


Do-calculus enables estimation of causal effects in partially observed biomolecular pathways

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Estimating causal queries, such as changes in protein abundance in response to a perturbation, is a fundamental task in the analysis of biomolecular pathways. The estimation requires experimental measurements on the pathway components. However, in practice many pathway components are left unobserved (latent) because they are either unknown, or difficult to measure. Latent variable models (LVMs) are well-suited for such estimation. Unfortunately, LVM-based estimation of causal queries can be inaccurate when parameters of the latent variables are not uniquely identified, or when the number of latent variables is misspecified. This has limited the use of LVMs for causal inference in biomolecular pathways. In this manuscript, we propose a general and practical approach for LVM-based estimation of causal queries. We prove that, despite the challenges above, LVM-based estimators of causal queries are accurate if the queries are identifiable according to Pearl's do-calculus, and describe an algorithm for its estimation. We illustrate the breadth and the practical utility of this approach for estimating causal queries in four synthetic and two experimental case studies, where structures of biomolecular pathways challenge the existing methods for causal query estimation. The code and the data documenting all the case studies are available at \url{https://github.com/srtaheri/LVMwithDoCalculus}


Global Optimality and Finite Sample Analysis of Softmax Off-Policy Actor Critic under State Distribution Mismatch

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we establish the global optimality and convergence rate of an off-policy actor critic algorithm in the tabular setting without using density ratio to correct the discrepancy between the state distribution of the behavior policy and that of the target policy. Our work goes beyond existing works on the optimality of policy gradient methods in that existing works use the exact policy gradient for updating the policy parameters while we use an approximate and stochastic update step. Our update step is not a gradient update because we do not use a density ratio to correct the state distribution, which aligns well with what practitioners do. Our update is approximate because we use a learned critic instead of the true value function. Our update is stochastic because at each step the update is done for only the current state action pair. Moreover, we remove several restrictive assumptions from existing works in our analysis. Central to our work is the finite sample analysis of a generic stochastic approximation algorithm with time-inhomogeneous update operators on time-inhomogeneous Markov chains, based on its uniform contraction properties.


Compound Density Networks for Risk Prediction using Electronic Health Records

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Electronic Health Records (EHRs) exhibit a high amount of missing data due to variations of patient conditions and treatment needs. Imputation of missing values has been considered an effective approach to deal with this challenge. Existing work separates imputation method and prediction model as two independent parts of an EHR-based machine learning system. We propose an integrated end-to-end approach by utilizing a Compound Density Network (CDNet) that allows the imputation method and prediction model to be tuned together within a single framework. CDNet consists of a Gated recurrent unit (GRU), a Mixture Density Network (MDN), and a Regularized Attention Network (RAN). The GRU is used as a latent variable model to model EHR data. The MDN is designed to sample latent variables generated by GRU. The RAN serves as a regularizer for less reliable imputed values. The architecture of CDNet enables GRU and MDN to iteratively leverage the output of each other to impute missing values, leading to a more accurate and robust prediction. We validate CDNet on the mortality prediction task on the MIMIC-III dataset. Our model outperforms state-of-the-art models by significant margins. We also empirically show that regularizing imputed values is a key factor for superior prediction performance. Analysis of prediction uncertainty shows that our model can capture both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, which offers model users a better understanding of the model results.


How Boltzmann Machines work part2(Artificial Intelligence)

#artificialintelligence

Abstract: Unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) is steadily growing as a promising technology for next-generation communication systems due to their appealing features such as wide coverage with high altitude, on-demand low-cost deployment, and fast responses. UAV communications are fundamentally different from the conventional terrestrial and satellite communications owing to the high mobility and the unique channel characteristics of air-ground links. However, obtaining effective channel state information (CSI) is challenging because of the dynamic propagation environment and variable transmission delay. In this paper, a deep learning (DL)-based CSI prediction framework is proposed to address channel aging problem by extracting the most discriminative features from the UAV wireless signals. Specifically, we develop a procedure of multiple Gaussian Bernoulli restricted Boltzmann machines (GBRBM) for dimension reduction and pre-training utilization incorporated with an autoencoder-based deep neural networks (DNNs).


Active Predictive Coding: A Unified Neural Framework for Learning Hierarchical World Models for Perception and Planning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Predictive coding has emerged as a prominent model of how the brain learns through predictions, anticipating the importance accorded to predictive learning in recent AI architectures such as transformers. Here we propose a new framework for predictive coding called active predictive coding which can learn hierarchical world models and solve two radically different open problems in AI: (1) how do we learn compositional representations, e.g., part-whole hierarchies, for equivariant vision? and (2) how do we solve large-scale planning problems, which are hard for traditional reinforcement learning, by composing complex action sequences from primitive policies? Our approach exploits hypernetworks, self-supervised learning and reinforcement learning to learn hierarchical world models that combine task-invariant state transition networks and task-dependent policy networks at multiple abstraction levels. We demonstrate the viability of our approach on a variety of vision datasets (MNIST, FashionMNIST, Omniglot) as well as on a scalable hierarchical planning problem. Our results represent, to our knowledge, the first demonstration of a unified solution to the part-whole learning problem posed by Hinton, the nested reference frames problem posed by Hawkins, and the integrated state-action hierarchy learning problem in reinforcement learning.


Trimmed Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Robust Learning in Generalized Linear Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study the problem of learning generalized linear models under adversarial corruptions. We analyze a classical heuristic called the iterative trimmed maximum likelihood estimator which is known to be effective against label corruptions in practice. Under label corruptions, we prove that this simple estimator achieves minimax near-optimal risk on a wide range of generalized linear models, including Gaussian regression, Poisson regression and Binomial regression. Finally, we extend the estimator to the more challenging setting of label and covariate corruptions and demonstrate its robustness and optimality in that setting as well.


Top 10 Machine Learning Algorithms for Beginners to Dive Into

#artificialintelligence

Each machine learning algorithm handles one specific problem, and this way beginners can dive into one of these to figure out solutions, one at a time. Here is a compilation of the top machine learning algorithms that are frequently used in all machine learning fields. Now, you can practice ML algorithms here. Forming relationships between two variables is almost the starting point of a model, and linear regression in machine learning achieves that. The relationship between the dependent and independent variables is established by aligning them on a regression line.