Throughout the cognitive-science literature, there is widespread agreement that decision-making agents operating in the real world do so under limited information-processing capabilities and without access to unbounded cognitive or computational resources. Prior work has drawn inspiration from this fact and leveraged an information-theoretic model of such behaviors or policies as communication channels operating under a bounded rate constraint. Meanwhile, a parallel line of work also capitalizes on the same principles from rate-distortion theory to formalize capacity-limited decision making through the notion of a learning target, which facilitates Bayesian regret bounds for provably-efficient learning algorithms. In this paper, we aim to elucidate this latter perspective by presenting a brief survey of these information-theoretic models of capacity-limited decision making in biological and artificial agents.

The key to traffic prediction is to accurately depict the temporal dynamics of traffic flow traveling in a road network, so it is important to model the spatial dependence of the road network. The essence of spatial dependence is to accurately describe how traffic information transmission is affected by other nodes in the road network, and the GNN-based traffic prediction model, as a benchmark for traffic prediction, has become the most common method for the ability to model spatial dependence by transmitting traffic information with the message passing mechanism. However, existing methods model a local and static spatial dependence, which cannot transmit the global-dynamic traffic information (GDTi) required for long-term prediction. The challenge is the difficulty of detecting the precise transmission of GDTi due to the uncertainty of individual transport, especially for long-term transmission. In this paper, we propose a new hypothesis\: GDTi behaves macroscopically as a transmitting causal relationship (TCR) underlying traffic flow, which remains stable under dynamic changing traffic flow. We further propose spatial-temporal Granger causality (STGC) to express TCR, which models global and dynamic spatial dependence. To model global transmission, we model the causal order and causal lag of TCRs global transmission by a spatial-temporal alignment algorithm. To capture dynamic spatial dependence, we approximate the stable TCR underlying dynamic traffic flow by a Granger causality test. The experimental results on three backbone models show that using STGC to model the spatial dependence has better results than the original model for 45 min and 1 h long-term prediction.

The quintessential model-based reinforcement-learning agent iteratively refines its estimates or prior beliefs about the true underlying model of the environment. Recent empirical successes in model-based reinforcement learning with function approximation, however, eschew the true model in favor of a surrogate that, while ignoring various facets of the environment, still facilitates effective planning over behaviors. Recently formalized as the value equivalence principle, this algorithmic technique is perhaps unavoidable as real-world reinforcement learning demands consideration of a simple, computationally-bounded agent interacting with an overwhelmingly complex environment, whose underlying dynamics likely exceed the agent's capacity for representation. In this work, we consider the scenario where agent limitations may entirely preclude identifying an exactly value-equivalent model, immediately giving rise to a trade-off between identifying a model that is simple enough to learn while only incurring bounded sub-optimality. To address this problem, we introduce an algorithm that, using rate-distortion theory, iteratively computes an approximately-value-equivalent, lossy compression of the environment which an agent may feasibly target in lieu of the true model. We prove an information-theoretic, Bayesian regret bound for our algorithm that holds for any finite-horizon, episodic sequential decision-making problem. Crucially, our regret bound can be expressed in one of two possible forms, providing a performance guarantee for finding either the simplest model that achieves a desired sub-optimality gap or, alternatively, the best model given a limit on agent capacity.

Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) is used for matching pairs of sequences and celebrated in applications such as forecasting the evolution of time series, clustering time series or even matching sequence pairs in few-shot action recognition. The transportation plan of DTW contains a set of paths; each path matches frames between two sequences under a varying degree of time warping, to account for varying temporal intra-class dynamics of actions. However, as DTW is the smallest distance among all paths, it may be affected by the feature uncertainty which varies across time steps/frames. Thus, in this paper, we propose to model the so-called aleatoric uncertainty of a differentiable (soft) version of DTW. To this end, we model the heteroscedastic aleatoric uncertainty of each path by the product of likelihoods from Normal distributions, each capturing variance of pair of frames. (The path distance is the sum of base distances between features of pairs of frames of the path.) The Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) applied to a path yields two terms: (i) a sum of Euclidean distances weighted by the variance inverse, and (ii) a sum of log-variance regularization terms. Thus, our uncertainty-DTW is the smallest weighted path distance among all paths, and the regularization term (penalty for the high uncertainty) is the aggregate of log-variances along the path. The distance and the regularization term can be used in various objectives. We showcase forecasting the evolution of time series, estimating the Fr\'echet mean of time series, and supervised/unsupervised few-shot action recognition of the articulated human 3D body joints.

Neural Network (NN) models provide potential to speed up the drug discovery process and reduce its failure rates. The success of NN models require uncertainty quantification (UQ) as drug discovery explores chemical space beyond the training data distribution. Standard NN models do not provide uncertainty information. Methods that combine Bayesian models with NN models address this issue, but are difficult to implement and more expensive to train. Some methods require changing the NN architecture or training procedure, limiting the selection of NN models. Moreover, predictive uncertainty can come from different sources. It is important to have the ability to separately model different types of predictive uncertainty, as the model can take assorted actions depending on the source of uncertainty. In this paper, we examine UQ methods that estimate different sources of predictive uncertainty for NN models aiming at drug discovery. We use our prior knowledge on chemical compounds to design the experiments. By utilizing a visualization method we create non-overlapping and chemically diverse partitions from a collection of chemical compounds. These partitions are used as training and test set splits to explore NN model uncertainty. We demonstrate how the uncertainties estimated by the selected methods describe different sources of uncertainty under different partitions and featurization schemes and the relationship to prediction error.

The abundance of data affords researchers to pursue more powerful computational tools to learn the dynamics of complex system, such as neural networks, engineered systems and social networks. Traditional machine learning approaches capture complex system dynamics either with dynamic Bayesian networks and state space models, which is hard to scale because it is non-trivial to prescribe the dynamics with a sparse graph or a system of differential equations; or a deep neural networks, where the distributed representation of the learned dynamics is hard to interpret. In this paper, we will explore the possibility of learning a discrete-event simulation representation of complex system dynamics assuming multivariate normal distribution of the state variables, based on the observation that many complex system dynamics can be decomposed into a sequence of local interactions, which individually change the system state only minimally but in sequence generate complex and diverse dynamics. Our results show that the algorithm can data-efficiently capture complex network dynamics in several fields with meaningful events.

Membership inference (MI) attacks highlight a privacy weakness in present stochastic training methods for neural networks. It is not well understood, however, why they arise. Are they a natural consequence of imperfect generalization only? Which underlying causes should we address during training to mitigate these attacks? Towards answering such questions, we propose the first approach to explain MI attacks and their connection to generalization based on principled causal reasoning. We offer causal graphs that quantitatively explain the observed MI attack performance achieved for $6$ attack variants. We refute several prior non-quantitative hypotheses that over-simplify or over-estimate the influence of underlying causes, thereby failing to capture the complex interplay between several factors. Our causal models also show a new connection between generalization and MI attacks via their shared causal factors. Our causal models have high predictive power ($0.90$), i.e., their analytical predictions match with observations in unseen experiments often, which makes analysis via them a pragmatic alternative.

Rational approximations are introduced and studied in granular graded rough sets and generalizations thereof by the first author in recent research papers. The concept of rationality is determined by related ontologies and coherence between granularity, mereology and approximations in the context. In addition, a framework for rational approximations is introduced by her in the mentioned paper(s). Granular approximations constructed as per the procedures of variable precision rough sets (VPRS) are likely to be more rational than those constructed from a classical perspective under certain conditions. This may continue to hold for some generalizations of the former. However, a formal characterization of such conditions is not available in the previously published literature. In this research, theoretical aspects of the problem are critically examined, uniform generalizations of granular VPRS are introduced, new connections with granular graded rough sets are proved, appropriate concepts of substantial parthood are introduced, their extent of compatibility with the framework is accessed, and the framework is extended. Basic assumptions are explained in detail, and additional examples are constructed for readability. Furthermore, meta applications to cluster validation, image segmentation and dynamic sorting are invented. Extensions to direct generalizations of VPRS such as probabilistic rough sets are a natural consequence of the work.

In this paper, we propose Value Iteration Network for Reward Shaping (VIN-RS), a potential-based reward shaping mechanism using Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). The proposed VIN-RS embeds a CNN trained on computed labels using the message passing mechanism of the Hidden Markov Model. The CNN processes images or graphs of the environment to predict the shaping values. Recent work on reward shaping still has limitations towards training on a representation of the Markov Decision Process (MDP) and building an estimate of the transition matrix. The advantage of VIN-RS is to construct an effective potential function from an estimated MDP while automatically inferring the environment transition matrix. The proposed VIN-RS estimates the transition matrix through a self-learned convolution filter while extracting environment details from the input frames or sampled graphs. Due to (1) the previous success of using message passing for reward shaping; and (2) the CNN planning behavior, we use these messages to train the CNN of VIN-RS. Experiments are performed on tabular games, Atari 2600 and MuJoCo, for discrete and continuous action space. Our results illustrate promising improvements in the learning speed and maximum cumulative reward compared to the state-of-the-art.

Shape constraints yield flexible middle grounds between fully nonparametric and fully parametric approaches to modeling distributions of data. The specific assumption of log-concavity is motivated by applications across economics, survival modeling, and reliability theory. However, there do not currently exist valid tests for whether the underlying density of given data is log-concave. The recent universal inference methodology provides a valid test. The universal test relies on maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), and efficient methods already exist for finding the log-concave MLE. This yields the first test of log-concavity that is provably valid in finite samples in any dimension, for which we also establish asymptotic consistency results. Empirically, we find that the highest power is obtained by using random projections to convert the d-dimensional testing problem into many one-dimensional problems, leading to a simple procedure that is statistically and computationally efficient.