Connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) are supposed to share the road with human-driven vehicles (HDVs) in a foreseeable future. Therefore, considering the mixed traffic environment is more pragmatic, as the well-planned operation of CAVs may be interrupted by HDVs. In the circumstance that human behaviors have significant impacts, CAVs need to understand HDV behaviors to make safe actions. In this study, we develop a Driver Digital Twin (DDT) for the online prediction of personalized lane change behavior, allowing CAVs to predict surrounding vehicles' behaviors with the help of the digital twin technology. DDT is deployed on a vehicle-edge-cloud architecture, where the cloud server models the driver behavior for each HDV based on the historical naturalistic driving data, while the edge server processes the real-time data from each driver with his/her digital twin on the cloud to predict the lane change maneuver. The proposed system is first evaluated on a human-in-the-loop co-simulation platform, and then in a field implementation with three passenger vehicles connected through the 4G/LTE cellular network. The lane change intention can be recognized in 6 seconds on average before the vehicle crosses the lane separation line, and the Mean Euclidean Distance between the predicted trajectory and GPS ground truth is 1.03 meters within a 4-second prediction window. Compared to the general model, using a personalized model can improve prediction accuracy by 27.8%. The demonstration video of the proposed system can be watched at https://youtu.be/5cbsabgIOdM.

The propensity score is defined as the conditional probability of being assigned to a treatment (exposure) given one's observed confounding variables. It is very commonly used in methods for estimating causal effects from observational data, such as inverse probability weighting [1], propensity matching [2, 3], propensity stratification [4], as well as many doubly-robust methods [5, 6, 7, 8] Rosenbaum and Rubin [2] set up theoretical guaranties ensuring that adjusting for the propensity score, instead of the covariates themselves, is sufficient in order to achieve the conditional exchangeability needed to estimate a causal effect. However, while these theoretical guarantees require the true conditional probabilities, when applied in practice, not every model that inputs data and outputs a number between zero and one, correctly estimates true probabilities. The scores might not reliably represent true probabilities. A prediction model that accurately outputs probabilities is referred to as calibrated (note this is unrelated to a previous notion of "propensity score calibration" from [9]). Calibration can be empirically evaluated with calibration curve (reliability curves), comparing the predicted scores with their corresponding rate of labels [10].

Bayesian methods of sampling from a posterior distribution are becoming increasingly popular due to their ability to precisely display the uncertainty of a model fit. Classical methods based on iterative random sampling and posterior evaluation such as Metropolis-Hastings are known to have desirable long run mixing properties, however are slow to converge. Gradient based methods, such as Langevin Dynamics (and its stochastic gradient counterpart) exhibit favorable dimension-dependence and fast mixing times for log-concave, and "close" to log-concave distributions, however also have long escape times from local minimizers. Many contemporary applications such as Bayesian Neural Networks are both high-dimensional and highly multimodal. In this paper we investigate the performance of a hybrid Metropolis and Langevin sampling method akin to Jump Diffusion on a range of synthetic and real data, indicating that careful calibration of mixing sampling jumps with gradient based chains significantly outperforms both pure gradient-based or sampling based schemes.

A challenging problem in probabilistic programming is to develop inference algorithms that work for arbitrary programs in a universal probabilistic programming language (PPL). We present the nonparametric involutive Markov chain Monte Carlo (NP-iMCMC) algorithm as a method for constructing MCMC inference algorithms for nonparametric models expressible in universal PPLs. Building on the unifying involutive MCMC framework, and by providing a general procedure for driving state movement between dimensions, we show that NP-iMCMC can generalise numerous existing iMCMC algorithms to work on nonparametric models. We prove the correctness of the NP-iMCMC sampler. Our empirical study shows that the existing strengths of several iMCMC algorithms carry over to their nonparametric extensions. Applying our method to the recently proposed Nonparametric HMC, an instance of (Multiple Step) NP-iMCMC, we have constructed several nonparametric extensions (all of which new) that exhibit significant performance improvements.

The paper studies the problem of designing the Intelligent Reflecting Surface (IRS) phase shifters for Multiple Input Single Output (MISO) communication systems in spatiotemporally correlated channel environments, where the destination can move within a confined area. The objective is to maximize the expected sum of SNRs at the receiver over infinite time horizons. The problem formulation gives rise to a Markov Decision Process (MDP). We propose a deep actor-critic algorithm that accounts for channel correlations and destination motion by constructing the state representation to include the current position of the receiver and the phase shift values and receiver positions that correspond to a window of previous time steps. The channel variability induces high frequency components on the spectrum of the underlying value function. We propose the preprocessing of the critic's input with a Fourier kernel which enables stable value learning. Finally, we investigate the use of the destination SNR as a component of the designed MDP state, which is common practice in previous work. We provide empirical evidence that, when the channels are spatiotemporally correlated, the inclusion of the SNR in the state representation interacts with function approximation in ways that inhibit convergence.

Bug triaging is a critical task in any software development project. It entails triagers going over a list of open bugs, deciding whether each is required to be addressed, and, if so, which developer should fix it. However, the manual bug assignment in issue tracking systems (ITS) offers only a limited solution and might easily fail when triagers must handle a large number of bug reports. During the automated assignment, there are multiple sources of uncertainties in the ITS, which should be addressed meticulously. In this study, we develop a Markov decision process (MDP) model for an online bug triage task. In addition to an optimization-based myopic technique, we provide an ADP-based bug triage solution, called ADPTriage, which has the ability to reflect the downstream uncertainty in the bug arrivals and developers' timetables. Specifically, without placing any limits on the underlying stochastic process, this technique enables real-time decision-making on bug assignments while taking into consideration developers' expertise, bug type, and bug fixing time. Our result shows a significant improvement over the myopic approach in terms of assignment accuracy and fixing time. We also demonstrate the empirical convergence of the model and conduct sensitivity analysis with various model parameters. Accordingly, this work constitutes a significant step forward in addressing the uncertainty in bug triage solutions

With the advent of the electric power big data era, semantic interoperability and interconnection of power data have received extensive attention. Knowledge graph technology is a new method describing the complex relationships between concepts and entities in the objective world, which is widely concerned because of its robust knowledge inference ability. Especially with the proliferation of measurement devices and exponential growth of electric power data empowers, electric power knowledge graph provides new opportunities to solve the contradictions between the massive power resources and the continuously increasing demands for intelligent applications. In an attempt to fulfil the potential of knowledge graph and deal with the various challenges faced, as well as to obtain insights to achieve business applications of smart grids, this work first presents a holistic study of knowledge-driven intelligent application integration. Specifically, a detailed overview of electric power knowledge mining is provided. Then, the overview of the knowledge graph in smart grids is introduced. Moreover, the architecture of the big knowledge graph platform for smart grids and critical technologies are described. Furthermore, this paper comprehensively elaborates on the application prospects leveraged by knowledge graph oriented to smart grids, power consumer service, decision-making in dispatching, and operation and maintenance of power equipment. Finally, issues and challenges are summarised.

There has been intensive research regarding machine learning models for predicting bankruptcy in recent years. However, the lack of interpretability limits their growth and practical implementation. This study proposes a data-driven explainable case-based reasoning (CBR) system for bankruptcy prediction. Empirical results from a comparative study show that the proposed approach performs superior to existing, alternative CBR systems and is competitive with state-of-the-art machine learning models. We also demonstrate that the asymmetrical feature similarity comparison mechanism in the proposed CBR system can effectively capture the asymmetrically distributed nature of financial attributes, such as a few companies controlling more cash than the majority, hence improving both the accuracy and explainability of predictions. In addition, we delicately examine the explainability of the CBR system in the decision-making process of bankruptcy prediction. While much research suggests a trade-off between improving prediction accuracy and explainability, our findings show a prospective research avenue in which an explainable model that thoroughly incorporates data attributes by design can reconcile the dilemma.

Deep latent variable generative models based on variational autoencoder (VAE) have shown promising performance for audiovisual speech enhancement (AVSE). The underlying idea is to learn a VAEbased audiovisual prior distribution for clean speech data, and then combine it with a statistical noise model to recover a speech signal from a noisy audio recording and video (lip images) of the target speaker. Existing generative models developed for AVSE do not take into account the sequential nature of speech data, which prevents them from fully incorporating the power of visual data. In this paper, we present an audiovisual deep Kalman filter (AV-DKF) generative model which assumes a first-order Markov chain model for the latent variables and effectively fuses audiovisual data. Moreover, we develop an efficient inference methodology to estimate speech signals at test time. We conduct a set of experiments to compare different variants of generative models for speech enhancement. The results demonstrate the superiority of the AV-DKF model compared with both its audio-only version and the non-sequential audio-only and audiovisual VAE-based models.

The counterfactual distribution models the effect of the treatment in the untreated group. While most of the work focuses on the expected values of the treatment effect, one may be interested in the whole counterfactual distribution or other quantities associated to it. Building on the framework of Bayesian conditional mean embeddings, we propose a Bayesian approach for modeling the counterfactual distribution, which leads to quantifying the epistemic uncertainty about the distribution. The framework naturally extends to the setting where one observes multiple treatment effects (e.g. an intermediate effect after an interim period, and an ultimate treatment effect which is of main interest) and allows for additionally modelling uncertainty about the relationship of these effects. For such goal, we present three novel Bayesian methods to estimate the expectation of the ultimate treatment effect, when only noisy samples of the dependence between intermediate and ultimate effects are provided. These methods differ on the source of uncertainty considered and allow for combining two sources of data. Moreover, we generalize these ideas to the off-policy evaluation framework, which can be seen as an extension of the counterfactual estimation problem. We empirically explore the calibration of the algorithms in two different experimental settings which require data fusion, and illustrate the value of considering the uncertainty stemming from the two sources of data.