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 Learning Graphical Models


Machine Learning for Software Engineering: A Tertiary Study

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Through ML we can address SE problems that cannot be completely algorithmically modeled, or for which existing solutions do not provide satisfactory results yet (e.g., defect/fault detection [16, 165, 180]). In addition, ML finds application in SE tasks where data cannot be easily analyzed with other algorithms (e.g., software requirements, code comments, code reviews, issues [9, 91, 174]). Another important aspect of ML is that it can significantly reduce manual effort in common SE tasks (e.g., automatic program repair [157], code suggestion [61], defect prediction [19], malware detection [147], feature location [40]) with great accuracy results [146, 164]. In fields such as health informatics ML and SE are considered complementary disciplines, since the growing scale and complexity of healthcare datasets have posed a challenge for clinical practice and medical research, requiring new engineering approaches from both fields [38]. In the early nineties, Huff and Selfridge [68] recognized the need for creating software systems that partially take some responsibility for their own evolution, offering the ability to implement, measure, and assess changes easily. These changes should also contribute to the overall improvement of the corresponding systems [142].


Predicting Human Mobility via Self-supervised Disentanglement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deep neural networks have recently achieved considerable improvements in learning human behavioral patterns and individual preferences from massive spatial-temporal trajectories data. However, most of the existing research concentrates on fusing different semantics underlying sequential trajectories for mobility pattern learning which, in turn, yields a narrow perspective on comprehending human intrinsic motions. In addition, the inherent sparsity and under-explored heterogeneous collaborative items pertaining to human check-ins hinder the potential exploitation of human diverse periodic regularities as well as common interests. Motivated by recent advances in disentanglement learning, in this study we propose a novel disentangled solution called SSDL for tackling the next POI prediction problem. SSDL primarily seeks to disentangle the potential time-invariant and time-varying factors into different latent spaces from massive trajectories data, providing an interpretable view to understand the intricate semantics underlying human diverse mobility representations. To address the data sparsity issue, we present two realistic trajectory augmentation approaches to enhance the understanding of both the human intrinsic periodicity and constantly-changing intents. In addition, we devise a POI-centric graph structure to explore heterogeneous collaborative signals underlying historical check-ins. Extensive experiments conducted on four real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed SSDL significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches -- for example, it yields up to 8.57% improvements on ACC@1.


Unsupervised Learning of Hierarchical Conversation Structure

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Human conversations can evolve in many different ways, creating challenges for automatic understanding and summarization. Goal-oriented conversations often have meaningful sub-dialogue structure, but it can be highly domain-dependent. This work introduces an unsupervised approach to learning hierarchical conversation structure, including turn and sub-dialogue segment labels, corresponding roughly to dialogue acts and sub-tasks, respectively. The decoded structure is shown to be useful in enhancing neural models of language for three conversation-level understanding tasks. Further, the learned finite-state sub-dialogue network is made interpretable through automatic summarization.


Parameterization of state duration in Hidden semi-Markov Models: an application in electrocardiography

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This work aims at providing a new model for time series classification based on learning from just one example. We assume that time series can be well characterized as a parametric random process, a sort of Hidden semi-Markov Model representing a sequence of regression models with variable duration. We introduce a parametric stochastic model for time series pattern recognition and provide a maximum-likelihood estimation of its parameters. Particularly, we are interested in examining two different representations for state duration: i) a discrete density distribution requiring an estimate for each possible duration; and ii) a parametric family of continuous density functions, here the Gamma distribution, with just two parameters to estimate. An application on heartbeat classification reveals the main strengths and weaknesses of each alternative.


Learning 4DVAR inversion directly from observations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Variational data assimilation and deep learning share many algorithmic aspects in common. While the former focuses on system state estimation, the latter provides great inductive biases to learn complex relationships. We here design a hybrid architecture learning the assimilation task directly from partial and noisy observations, using the mechanistic constraint of the 4DVAR algorithm. Finally, we show in an experiment that the proposed method was able to learn the desired inversion with interesting regularizing properties and that it also has computational interests.


Theta-Resonance: A Single-Step Reinforcement Learning Method for Design Space Exploration

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Given an environment (e.g., a simulator) for evaluating samples in a specified design space and a set of weighted evaluation metrics -- one can use Theta-Resonance, a single-step Markov Decision Process (MDP), to train an intelligent agent producing progressively more optimal samples. In Theta-Resonance, a neural network consumes a constant input tensor and produces a policy as a set of conditional probability density functions (PDFs) for sampling each design dimension. We specialize existing policy gradient algorithms in deep reinforcement learning (D-RL) in order to use evaluation feedback (in terms of cost, penalty or reward) to update our policy network with robust algorithmic stability and minimal design evaluations. We study multiple neural architectures (for our policy network) within the context of a simple SoC design space and propose a method of constructing synthetic space exploration problems to compare and improve design space exploration (DSE) algorithms. Although we only present categorical design spaces, we also outline how to use Theta-Resonance in order to explore continuous and mixed continuous-discrete design spaces.


Introduction and Exemplars of Uncertainty Decomposition

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Uncertainty plays a crucial role in the machine learning field. Both model trustworthiness and performance require the understanding of uncertainty, especially for models used in high-stake applications where errors can cause cataclysmic consequences, such as medical diagnosis and autonomous driving. Accordingly, uncertainty decomposition and quantification have attracted more and more attention in recent years. This short report aims to demystify the notion of uncertainty decomposition through an introduction to two types of uncertainty and several decomposition exemplars, including maximum likelihood estimation, Gaussian processes, deep neural network, and ensemble learning. In the end, cross connections to other topics in this seminar and two conclusions are provided.


Discrete-Continuous Smoothing and Mapping

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We describe a general approach for maximum a posteriori (MAP) inference in a class of discrete-continuous factor graphs commonly encountered in robotics applications. While there are openly available tools providing flexible and easy-to-use interfaces for specifying and solving inference problems formulated in terms of either discrete or continuous graphical models, at present, no similarly general tools exist enabling the same functionality for hybrid discrete-continuous problems. We aim to address this problem. In particular, we provide a library, DC-SAM, extending existing tools for inference problems defined in terms of factor graphs to the setting of discrete-continuous models. A key contribution of our work is a novel solver for efficiently recovering approximate solutions to discrete-continuous inference problems. The key insight to our approach is that while joint inference over continuous and discrete state spaces is often hard, many commonly encountered discrete-continuous problems can naturally be split into a "discrete part" and a "continuous part" that can individually be solved easily. Leveraging this structure, we optimize discrete and continuous variables in an alternating fashion. In consequence, our proposed work enables straightforward representation of and approximate inference in discrete-continuous graphical models. We also provide a method to approximate the uncertainty in estimates of both discrete and continuous variables. We demonstrate the versatility of our approach through its application to distinct robot perception applications, including robust pose graph optimization, and object-based mapping and localization.


AlphaSnake: Policy Iteration on a Nondeterministic NP-hard Markov Decision Process

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reinforcement learning has recently been used to approach well-known NP-hard combinatorial problems in graph theory. Among these problems, Hamiltonian cycle problems are exceptionally difficult to analyze, even when restricted to individual instances of structurally complex graphs. In this paper, we use Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), the search algorithm behind many state-of-the-art reinforcement learning algorithms such as AlphaZero, to create autonomous agents that learn to play the game of Snake, a game centered on properties of Hamiltonian cycles on grid graphs. The game of Snake can be formulated as a single-player discounted Markov Decision Process (MDP) where the agent must behave optimally in a stochastic environment. Determining the optimal policy for Snake, defined as the policy that maximizes the probability of winning - or win rate - with higher priority and minimizes the expected number of time steps to win with lower priority, is conjectured to be NP-hard. Performance-wise, compared to prior work in the Snake game, our algorithm is the first to achieve a win rate over $0.5$ (a uniform random policy achieves a win rate $< 2.57 \times 10^{-15}$), demonstrating the versatility of AlphaZero in approaching NP-hard environments.


Neural Inference of Gaussian Processes for Time Series Data of Quasars

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The study of quasar light curves poses two problems: inference of the power spectrum and interpolation of an irregularly sampled time series. A baseline approach to these tasks is to interpolate a time series with a Damped Random Walk (DRW) model, in which the spectrum is inferred using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE). However, the DRW model does not describe the smoothness of the time series, and MLE faces many problems in terms of optimization and numerical precision. In this work, we introduce a new stochastic model that we call $\textit{Convolved Damped Random Walk}$ (CDRW). This model introduces a concept of smoothness to a DRW, which enables it to describe quasar spectra completely. We also introduce a new method of inference of Gaussian process parameters, which we call $\textit{Neural Inference}$. This method uses the powers of state-of-the-art neural networks to improve the conventional MLE inference technique. In our experiments, the Neural Inference method results in significant improvement over the baseline MLE (RMSE: $0.318 \rightarrow 0.205$, $0.464 \rightarrow 0.444$). Moreover, the combination of both the CDRW model and Neural Inference significantly outperforms the baseline DRW and MLE in interpolating a typical quasar light curve ($\chi^2$: $0.333 \rightarrow 0.998$, $2.695 \rightarrow 0.981$). The code is published on GitHub.