Estimating the structure of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) of features (variables) plays a vital role in revealing the latent data generation process and providing causal insights in various applications. Although there have been many studies on structure learning with various types of data, the structure learning on the dynamic graph has not been explored yet, and thus we study the learning problem of node feature generation mechanism on such ubiquitous dynamic graph data. In a dynamic graph, we propose to simultaneously estimate contemporaneous relationships and time-lagged interaction relationships between the node features. These two kinds of relationships form a DAG, which could effectively characterize the feature generation process in a concise way. To learn such a DAG, we cast the learning problem as a continuous score-based optimization problem, which consists of a differentiable score function to measure the validity of the learned DAGs and a smooth acyclicity constraint to ensure the acyclicity of the learned DAGs. These two components are translated into an unconstraint augmented Lagrangian objective which could be minimized by mature continuous optimization techniques. The resulting algorithm, named GraphNOTEARS, outperforms baselines on simulated data across a wide range of settings that may encounter in real-world applications. We also apply the proposed approach on two dynamic graphs constructed from the real-world Yelp dataset, demonstrating our method could learn the connections between node features, which conforms with the domain knowledge.

Media bias can significantly impact the formation and development of opinions and sentiments in a population. It is thus important to study the emergence and development of partisan media and political polarization. However, it is challenging to quantitatively infer the ideological positions of media outlets. In this paper, we present a quantitative framework to infer both political bias and content quality of media outlets from text, and we illustrate this framework with empirical experiments with real-world data. We apply a bidirectional long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network to a data set of more than 1 million tweets to generate a two-dimensional ideological-bias and content-quality measurement for each tweet. We then infer a ``media-bias chart'' of (bias, quality) coordinates for the media outlets by integrating the (bias, quality) measurements of the tweets of the media outlets. We also apply a variety of baseline machine-learning methods, such as a naive-Bayes method and a support-vector machine (SVM), to infer the bias and quality values for each tweet. All of these baseline approaches are based on a bag-of-words approach. We find that the LSTM-network approach has the best performance of the examined methods. Our results illustrate the importance of leveraging word order into machine-learning methods in text analysis.

Surrogate models have shown to be an extremely efficient aid in solving engineering problems that require repeated evaluations of an expensive computational model. They are built by sparsely evaluating the costly original model and have provided a way to solve otherwise intractable problems. A crucial aspect in surrogate modelling is the assumption of smoothness and regularity of the model to approximate. This assumption is however not always met in reality. For instance in civil or mechanical engineering, some models may present discontinuities or non-smoothness, e.g., in case of instability patterns such as buckling or snap-through. Building a single surrogate model capable of accounting for these fundamentally different behaviors or discontinuities is not an easy task. In this paper, we propose a three-stage approach for the approximation of non-smooth functions which combines clustering, classification and regression. The idea is to split the space following the localized behaviors or regimes of the system and build local surrogates that are eventually assembled. A sequence of well-known machine learning techniques are used: Dirichlet process mixtures models (DPMM), support vector machines and Gaussian process modelling. The approach is tested and validated on two analytical functions and a finite element model of a tensile membrane structure.

The rise of AI methods to make predictions and decisions has led to a pressing need for more explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) methods. One common approach for XAI is to produce a post-hoc explanation, explaining why a black box ML model made a certain prediction. Formal approaches to post-hoc explanations provide succinct reasons for why a prediction was made, as well as why not another prediction was made. But these approaches assume that features are independent and uniformly distributed. While this means that "why" explanations are correct, they may be longer than required. It also means the "why not" explanations may be suspect as the counterexamples they rely on may not be meaningful. In this paper, we show how one can apply background knowledge to give more succinct "why" formal explanations, that are presumably easier to interpret by humans, and give more accurate "why not" explanations. In addition, we show how to use existing rule induction techniques to efficiently extract background information from a dataset, and also how to report which background information was used to make an explanation, allowing a human to examine it if they doubt the correctness of the explanation.

An influence diagram is a graphical model of a Bayesian decision problem that is solved by finding a strategy that maximizes expected utility. When an influence diagram is solved by variable elimination or a related dynamic programming algorithm, it is traditional to represent a strategy as a sequence of policies, one for each decision variable, where a policy maps the relevant history for a decision to an action. We propose an alternative representation of a strategy as a graph, called a strategy graph, and show how to modify a variable elimination algorithm so that it constructs a strategy graph. We consider both a classic variable elimination algorithm for influence diagrams and a recent extension of this algorithm that has more relaxed constraints on elimination order that allow improved performance. We consider the advantages of representing a strategy as a graph and, in particular, how to simplify a strategy graph so that it is easier to interpret and analyze.

The prediction of protein structures from sequences is an important task for function prediction, drug design, and related biological processes understanding. Recent advances have proved the power of language models (LMs) in processing the protein sequence databases, which inherit the advantages of attention networks and capture useful information in learning representations for proteins. The past two years have witnessed remarkable success in tertiary protein structure prediction (PSP), including evolution-based and single-sequence-based PSP. It seems that instead of using energy-based models and sampling procedures, protein language model (pLM)-based pipelines have emerged as mainstream paradigms in PSP. Despite the fruitful progress, the PSP community needs a systematic and up-to-date survey to help bridge the gap between LMs in the natural language processing (NLP) and PSP domains and introduce their methodologies, advancements and practical applications. To this end, in this paper, we first introduce the similarities between protein and human languages that allow LMs extended to pLMs, and applied to protein databases. Then, we systematically review recent advances in LMs and pLMs from the perspectives of network architectures, pre-training strategies, applications, and commonly-used protein databases. Next, different types of methods for PSP are discussed, particularly how the pLM-based architectures function in the process of protein folding. Finally, we identify challenges faced by the PSP community and foresee promising research directions along with the advances of pLMs. This survey aims to be a hands-on guide for researchers to understand PSP methods, develop pLMs and tackle challenging problems in this field for practical purposes.

In this paper, we discuss a Reinforcement Learning (RL) approach towards a class of sequential decision problems, exemplified for the popular Wordle puzzle that appears daily in the New York Times. Wordle involves a list of 5-letter mystery words, which is a subset of a larger list of guess words. A word is selected at random from the mystery list, and the objective is to find that word by sequentially selecting no more than six words from the guess list. Each guess word selection provides information about the letters contained in the hidden mystery word according to a given set of rules, which involves color coding of letters shared by the guess word and the mystery word. We will adopt a more general point of view, by considering a broad class of problems that include Wordle as a special case. In particular, the problems that we consider include sequential search situations, where the objective is to guess correctly an unknown object from a given finite set of objects (the set of mystery words in the Wordle context), by using a sequence of decisions from a finite set (the set of guess words in Wordle), which result in a sequence of corresponding observations (the information outcomes of the guesses in Wordle). We aim to minimize some cost function, such as the expected number of observations required to determine the unknown object. Within the search context just described, some basic information theory concepts are relevant, which have already been applied to Wordle, and are important for our methodology.

A reliable pose estimator robust to environmental disturbances is desirable for mobile robots. To this end, inertial measurement units (IMUs) play an important role because they can perceive the full motion state of the vehicle independently. However, it suffers from accumulative error due to inherent noise and bias instability, especially for low-cost sensors. In our previous studies on Wheel-INS \cite{niu2021, wu2021}, we proposed to limit the error drift of the pure inertial navigation system (INS) by mounting an IMU to the wheel of the robot to take advantage of rotation modulation. However, Wheel-INS still drifted over a long period of time due to the lack of external correction signals. In this letter, we propose to exploit the environmental perception ability of Wheel-INS to achieve simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) with only one IMU. To be specific, we use the road bank angles (mirrored by the robot roll angles estimated by Wheel-INS) as terrain features to enable the loop closure with a Rao-Blackwellized particle filter. The road bank angle is sampled and stored according to the robot position in the grid maps maintained by the particles. The weights of the particles are updated according to the difference between the currently estimated roll sequence and the terrain map. Field experiments suggest the feasibility of the idea to perform SLAM in Wheel-INS using the robot roll angle estimates. In addition, the positioning accuracy is improved significantly (more than 30\%) over Wheel-INS. The source code of our implementation is publicly available (https://github.com/i2Nav-WHU/Wheel-SLAM).

We aim at improving reasoning on inconsistent and uncertain data. We focus on knowledge-graph data, extended with time intervals to specify their validity, as regularly found in historical sciences. We propose principles on semantics for efficient Maximum A-Posteriori inference on the new Temporal Markov Logic Networks (TMLN) which extend the Markov Logic Networks (MLN) by uncertain temporal facts and rules. We examine total and partial temporal (in)consistency relations between sets of temporal formulae. Then we propose a new Temporal Parametric Semantics, which may combine several sub-functions, allowing to use different assessment strategies. Finally, we expose the constraints that semantics must respect to satisfy our principles.

The behaviour of statistical relational representations across differently sized domains has become a focal area of research from both a modelling and a complexity viewpoint.Recently, projectivity of a family of distributions emerged as a key property, ensuring that marginal probabilities are independent of the domain size. However, the formalisation used currently assumes that the domain is characterised only by its size. This contribution extends the notion of projectivity from families of distributions indexed by domain size to functors taking extensional data from a database. This makes projectivity available for the large range of applications taking structured input. We transfer key known results on projective families of distributions to the new setting. This includes a characterisation of projective fragments in different statistical relational formalisms as well as a general representation theorem for projective families of distributions. Furthermore, we prove a correspondence between projectivity and distributions on countably infinite domains, which we use to unify and generalise earlier work on statistical relational representations in infinite domains. Finally, we use the extended notion of projectivity to define a further strengthening, which we call $\sigma$-projectivity, and which allows the use of the same representation in different modes while retaining projectivity.