Estimating the probability of failure for complex real-world systems using high-fidelity computational models is often prohibitively expensive, especially when the probability is small. Exploiting low-fidelity models can make this process more feasible, but merging information from multiple low-fidelity and high-fidelity models poses several challenges. This paper presents a robust multi-fidelity surrogate modeling strategy in which the multi-fidelity surrogate is assembled using an active learning strategy using an on-the-fly model adequacy assessment set within a subset simulation framework for efficient reliability analysis. The multi-fidelity surrogate is assembled by first applying a Gaussian process correction to each low-fidelity model and assigning a model probability based on the model's local predictive accuracy and cost. Three strategies are proposed to fuse these individual surrogates into an overall surrogate model based on model averaging and deterministic/stochastic model selection. The strategies also dictate which model evaluations are necessary. No assumptions are made about the relationships between low-fidelity models, while the high-fidelity model is assumed to be the most accurate and most computationally expensive model. Through two analytical and two numerical case studies, including a case study evaluating the failure probability of Tristructural isotropic-coated (TRISO) nuclear fuels, the algorithm is shown to be highly accurate while drastically reducing the number of high-fidelity model calls (and hence computational cost).

Language identification (LID) is a crucial precursor for NLP, especially for mining web data. Problematically, most of the world's 7000+ languages today are not covered by LID technologies. We address this pressing issue for Africa by introducing AfroLID, a neural LID toolkit for $517$ African languages and varieties. AfroLID exploits a multi-domain web dataset manually curated from across 14 language families utilizing five orthographic systems. When evaluated on our blind Test set, AfroLID achieves 95.89 F_1-score. We also compare AfroLID to five existing LID tools that each cover a small number of African languages, finding it to outperform them on most languages. We further show the utility of AfroLID in the wild by testing it on the acutely under-served Twitter domain. Finally, we offer a number of controlled case studies and perform a linguistically-motivated error analysis that allow us to both showcase AfroLID's powerful capabilities and limitations.

A classical ASR approach treats the process of generating speech as a noisy channel. In this framing, text is drawn from some distribution and statistically transformed into We present a noisy channel generative model speech audio; the speech recognition task is then to invert of two sequences, for example text and speech, this generative model to infer the text most likely to have which enables uncovering the association between given rise to a given speech waveform. This generative the two modalities when limited paired data is model of speech was historically successful (Baker, 1975; available. To address the intractability of the exact Jelinek, 1976; Rabiner, 1989), but has been superseded in model under a realistic data setup, we propose modern discriminative systems by directly modeling the a variational inference approximation. To train conditional distribution of text, given speech (Graves et al., this variational model with categorical data, we 2006; Amodei et al., 2016). The direct approach has the advantage propose a KL encoder loss approach which has of allowing limited modeling power to be solely devoted connections to the wake-sleep algorithm. Identifying to the task of interest, whereas the generative one can the joint or conditional distributions by only be extremely sensitive to faulty assumptions in the speech observing unpaired samples from the marginals is audio model despite the fact that this is not the primary only possible under certain conditions in the data object of interest. However the generative approach allows distribution and we discuss under what type of learning in a principled way from untranscribed speech conditional independence assumptions that might audio, something fundamentally impossible in the direct approach.

Understanding the dynamics of a system is important in many scientific and engineering domains. This problem can be approached by learning state transition rules from observations using machine learning techniques. Such observed time-series data often consist of sequences of many continuous variables with noise and ambiguity, but we often need rules of dynamics that can be modeled with a few essential variables. In this work, we propose a method for extracting a small number of essential hidden variables from high-dimensional time-series data and for learning state transition rules between these hidden variables. The proposed method is based on the Restricted Boltzmann Machine (RBM), which treats observable data in the visible layer and latent features in the hidden layer. However, real-world data, such as video and audio, include both discrete and continuous variables, and these variables have temporal relationships. Therefore, we propose Recurrent Temporal GaussianBernoulli Restricted Boltzmann Machine (RTGB-RBM), which combines Gaussian-Bernoulli Restricted Boltzmann Machine (GB-RBM) to handle continuous visible variables, and Recurrent Temporal Restricted Boltzmann Machine (RT-RBM) to capture time dependence between discrete hidden variables. We also propose a rule-based method that extracts essential information as hidden variables and represents state transition rules in interpretable form. We conduct experiments on Bouncing Ball and Moving MNIST datasets to evaluate our proposed method. Experimental results show that our method can learn the dynamics of those physical systems as state transition rules between hidden variables and can predict unobserved future states from observed state transitions.

Deep learning models that leverage large datasets are often the state of the art for modelling molecular properties. When the datasets are smaller (< 2000 molecules), it is not clear that deep learning approaches are the right modelling tool. In this work we perform an extensive study of the calibration and generalizability of probabilistic machine learning models on small chemical datasets. Using different molecular representations and models, we analyse the quality of their predictions and uncertainties in a variety of tasks (binary, regression) and datasets. We also introduce two simulated experiments that evaluate their performance: (1) Bayesian optimization guided molecular design, (2) inference on out-of-distribution data via ablated cluster splits. We offer practical insights into model and feature choice for modelling small chemical datasets, a common scenario in new chemical experiments. We have packaged our analysis into the DIONYSUS repository, which is open sourced to aid in reproducibility and extension to new datasets.

We study the learning dynamics of self-predictive learning for reinforcement learning, a family of algorithms that learn representations by minimizing the prediction error of their own future latent representations. Despite its recent empirical success, such algorithms have an apparent defect: trivial representations (such as constants) minimize the prediction error, yet it is obviously undesirable to converge to such solutions. Our central insight is that careful designs of the optimization dynamics are critical to learning meaningful representations. We identify that a faster paced optimization of the predictor and semi-gradient updates on the representation, are crucial to preventing the representation collapse. Then in an idealized setup, we show self-predictive learning dynamics carries out spectral decomposition on the state transition matrix, effectively capturing information of the transition dynamics. Building on the theoretical insights, we propose bidirectional self-predictive learning, a novel self-predictive algorithm that learns two representations simultaneously. We examine the robustness of our theoretical insights with a number of small-scale experiments and showcase the promise of the novel representation learning algorithm with large-scale experiments.

Moving agents perceive streams of information, typically a mix of RGB images, depth and inertial measurements. Probabilistic generative models [1] are a principled way to formalise the synthesis of this data, and from these models inference can be derived through Bayes' rule. We focus on exactly such inference and target the agent states and the scene map, a problem known as simultaneous localisation and mapping (SLAM). We treat it as a posterior approximation for a given state-space model, such that the combination is useful for model-based control: the posterior inference serves as a state estimator and the predictive state-space model as a simulator with which to plan ahead [2]. To pave the way towards decision making, we believe an inference method should have: a compatible predictive model for both RGB-D images and 6-DoF dynamics; principled state and map uncertainty; real-time performance on commodity hardware; state-of-the-art localisation accuracy. We motivate these requirements further in appendix J. Prominent methods like LSD-SLAM [3], ORB-SLAM [4], DSO [5] have propelled visual SLAM forward, with heavy focus on large-scale localisation. The core of modern large-scale SLAM is maximum a-posteriori (MAP) smoothing in a probabilistic factor graph [6, 7]. At present this demands sparsity assumptions for computational feasibility, which obstructs the tight integration of dense maps and rendering.

Valuing mineral assets is a challenging task that is highly dependent on the supply (geological) uncertainty surrounding resources and reserves, and the uncertainty of demand (commodity prices). In this work, a graph-based reasoning, modeling and solution approach is proposed to jointly address mineral asset valuation and mine plan scheduling and optimization under supply and demand uncertainty in the "mining complex" framework. Three graph-based solutions are proposed: (i) a neural branching policy that learns a block-sampling ore body representation, (ii) a guiding policy that learns to explore a heuristic selection tree, (iii) a hyper-heuristic that manages the value/supply chain optimization and dynamics modeled as a graph structure. Results on two large-scale industrial mining complexes show a reduction of up to three orders of magnitude in primal suboptimality, execution time, and number of iterations, and an increase of up to 40% in the mineral asset value.

Graphs are ubiquitous in encoding relational information of real-world objects in many domains. Graph generation, whose purpose is to generate new graphs from a distribution similar to the observed graphs, has received increasing attention thanks to the recent advances of deep learning models. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive review on the existing literature of deep graph generation from a variety of emerging methods to its wide application areas. Specifically, we first formulate the problem of deep graph generation and discuss its difference with several related graph learning tasks. Secondly, we divide the state-of-the-art methods into three categories based on model architectures and summarize their generation strategies. Thirdly, we introduce three key application areas of deep graph generation. Lastly, we highlight challenges and opportunities in the future study of deep graph generation. We hope that our survey will be useful for researchers and practitioners who are interested in this exciting and rapidly-developing field.

We develop a simple framework to learn bio-inspired foraging policies using human data. We conduct an experiment where humans are virtually immersed in an open field foraging environment and are trained to collect the highest amount of rewards. A Markov Decision Process (MDP) framework is introduced to model the human decision dynamics. Then, Imitation Learning (IL) based on maximum likelihood estimation is used to train Neural Networks (NN) that map human decisions to observed states. The results show that passive imitation substantially underperforms humans. We further refine the human-inspired policies via Reinforcement Learning (RL) using the on-policy Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) algorithm which shows better stability than other algorithms and can steadily improve the policies pretrained with IL. We show that the combination of IL and RL can match human results and that good performance strongly depends on combining the allocentric information with an egocentric representation of the environment.