Causal discovery for quantitative data has been extensively studied but less is known for categorical data. We propose a novel causal model for categorical data based on a new classification model, termed classification with optimal label permutation (COLP). By design, COLP is a parsimonious classifier, which gives rise to a provably identifiable causal model. A simple learning algorithm via comparing likelihood functions of causal and anti-causal models suffices to learn the causal direction. Through experiments with synthetic and real data, we demonstrate the favorable performance of the proposed COLP-based causal model compared to state-of-the-art methods. We also make available an accompanying R package COLP, which contains the proposed causal discovery algorithm and a benchmark dataset of categorical cause-effect pairs.

Continuous-time Markov chains are used to model stochastic systems where transitions can occur at irregular times, e.g., birth-death processes, chemical reaction networks, population dynamics, and gene regulatory networks. We develop a method to learn a continuous-time Markov chain's transition rate functions from fully observed time series. In contrast with existing methods, our method allows for transition rates to depend nonlinearly on both state variables and external covariates. The Gillespie algorithm is used to generate trajectories of stochastic systems where propensity functions (reaction rates) are known. Our method can be viewed as the inverse: given trajectories of a stochastic reaction network, we generate estimates of the propensity functions. While previous methods used linear or log-linear methods to link transition rates to covariates, we use neural networks, increasing the capacity and potential accuracy of learned models. In the chemical context, this enables the method to learn propensity functions from non-mass-action kinetics. We test our method with synthetic data generated from a variety of systems with known transition rates. We show that our method learns these transition rates with considerably more accuracy than log-linear methods, in terms of mean absolute error between ground truth and predicted transition rates. We also demonstrate an application of our methods to open-loop control of a continuous-time Markov chain.

A machine learning (ML) system must learn not only to match the output of a target function on a training set, but also to generalize to novel situations in order to yield accurate predictions at deployment. In most practical applications, the user cannot exhaustively enumerate every possible input to the model; strong generalization performance is therefore crucial to the development of ML systems which are performant and reliable enough to be deployed in the real world. While generalization is well-understood theoretically in a number of hypothesis classes, the impressive generalization performance of deep neural networks has stymied theoreticians. In deep reinforcement learning (RL), our understanding of generalization is further complicated by the conflict between generalization and stability in widely-used RL algorithms. This thesis will provide insight into generalization by studying the learning dynamics of deep neural networks in both supervised and reinforcement learning tasks.

To minimize collision risks in the multi-agent path planning problem with stochastic transition dynamics, we formulate a Markov decision process congestion game with a multi-linear congestion cost. Players within the game complete individual tasks while minimizing their own collision risks. We show that the set of Nash equilibria coincides with the first-order KKT points of a non-convex optimization problem. Our game is applied to a historical flight plan over France to reduce collision risks between commercial aircraft.

Abstract: A persistent challenge in conditional image synthesis has been to generate diverse output images from the same input image despite only one output image being observed per input image. GAN-based methods are prone to mode collapse, which leads to low diversity. To get around this, we leverage Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (IMLE) which can overcome mode collapse fundamentally. IMLE uses the same generator as GANs but trains it with a different, non-adversarial objective which ensures each observed image has a generated sample nearby. Unfortunately, to generate high-fidelity images, prior IMLE-based methods require a large number of samples, which is expensive.

There is a vast amount of data generated every second due to the rapidly growing technology in the current world. This area of research attempts to determine the feelings or opinions of people on social media posts. The dataset we used was a multi-source dataset from the comment section of various social networking sites like Twitter, Reddit, etc. Natural Language Processing Techniques were employed to perform sentiment analysis on the obtained dataset. In this paper, we provide a comparative analysis using techniques of lexicon-based, machine learning and deep learning approaches. The Machine Learning algorithm used in this work is Naive Bayes, the Lexicon-based approach used in this work is TextBlob, and the deep-learning algorithm used in this work is LSTM. The rise of the internet has altered how people now express their ideas and thoughts.

The energy consumption of private households amounts to approximately 30% of the total global energy consumption, causing a large share of the CO2 emissions through energy production. An intelligent demand response via load shifting increases the energy efficiency of residential buildings by nudging residents to change their energy consumption behavior. This paper introduces an activity prediction-based framework for the utility-based context-aware multi-agent recommendation system that generates an activity shifting schedule for a 24-hour time horizon to either focus on CO2 emissions or energy cost savings. In particular, we design and implement an Activity Agent that uses hourly energy consumption data. It does not require further sensorial data or activity labels which reduces implementation costs and the need for extensive user input. Moreover, the system enhances the utility option of saving energy costs by saving CO2 emissions and provides the possibility to focus on both dimensions. The empirical results show that while setting the focus on CO2 emissions savings, the system provides an average of 12% of emissions savings and 7% of cost savings. When focusing on energy cost savings, 20% of energy costs and 6% of emissions savings are possible for the studied households in case of accepting all recommendations. Recommending an activity schedule, the system uses the same terms residents describe their domestic life. Therefore, recommendations can be more easily integrated into daily life supporting the acceptance of the system in a long-term perspective.

Inverse medium scattering solvers generally reconstruct a single solution without an associated measure of uncertainty. This is true both for the classical iterative solvers and for the emerging deep learning methods. But ill-posedness and noise can make this single estimate inaccurate or misleading. While deep networks such as conditional normalizing flows can be used to sample posteriors in inverse problems, they often yield low-quality samples and uncertainty estimates. In this paper, we propose U-Flow, a Bayesian U-Net based on conditional normalizing flows, which generates high-quality posterior samples and estimates physically-meaningful uncertainty. We show that the proposed model significantly outperforms the recent normalizing flows in terms of posterior sample quality while having comparable performance with the U-Net in point estimation.

Emerging applications such as Deep Learning are often data-driven, thus traditional approaches based on auto-tuners are not performance effective across the wide range of inputs used in practice. In the present paper, we start an investigation of predictive models based on machine learning techniques in order to optimize Convolution Neural Networks (CNNs). As a use-case, we focus on the ARM Compute Library which provides three different implementations of the convolution operator at different numeric precision. Starting from a collation of benchmarks, we build and validate models learned by Decision Tree and naive Bayesian classifier. Preliminary experiments on Midgard-based ARM Mali GPU show that our predictive model outperforms all the convolution operators manually selected by the library.

Sampling-based model predictive control (MPC) can be applied to versatile robotic systems. However, the real-time control with it is a big challenge due to its unstable updates and poor convergence. This paper tackles this challenge with a novel derivation from reverse Kullback-Leibler divergence, which has a mode-seeking behavior and is likely to find one of the sub-optimal solutions early. With this derivation, a weighted maximum likelihood estimation with positive/negative weights is obtained, solving by mirror descent (MD) algorithm. While the negative weights eliminate unnecessary actions, that requires to develop a practical implementation that avoids the interference with positive/negative updates based on rejection sampling. In addition, although the convergence of MD can be accelerated with Nesterov's acceleration method, it is modified for the proposed MPC with a heuristic of a step size adaptive to the noise estimated in update amounts. In the real-time simulations, the proposed method can solve more tasks statistically than the conventional method and accomplish more complex tasks only with a CPU due to the improved acceleration. In addition, its applicability is also demonstrated in a variable impedance control of a force-driven mobile robot. https://youtu.be/D8bFMzct1XM