With rapid development of techniques to measure brain activity and structure, statistical methods for analyzing modern brain-imaging play an important role in the advancement of science. Imaging data that measure brain function are usually multivariate time series and are heterogeneous across both imaging sources and subjects, which lead to various statistical and computational challenges. In this paper, we propose a group-based method to cluster a collection of multivariate time series via a Bayesian mixture of smoothing splines. Our method assumes each multivariate time series is a mixture of multiple components with different mixing weights. Time-independent covariates are assumed to be associated with the mixture components and are incorporated via logistic weights of a mixture-of-experts model. We formulate this approach under a fully Bayesian framework using Gibbs sampling where the number of components is selected based on a deviance information criterion. The proposed method is compared to existing methods via simulation studies and is applied to a study on functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS), which aims to understand infant emotional reactivity and recovery from stress. The results reveal distinct patterns of brain activity, as well as associations between these patterns and selected covariates.

We study the following independence testing problem: given access to samples from a distribution $P$ over $\{0,1\}^n$, decide whether $P$ is a product distribution or whether it is $\varepsilon$-far in total variation distance from any product distribution. For arbitrary distributions, this problem requires $\exp(n)$ samples. We show in this work that if $P$ has a sparse structure, then in fact only linearly many samples are required. Specifically, if $P$ is Markov with respect to a Bayesian network whose underlying DAG has in-degree bounded by $d$, then $\tilde{\Theta}(2^{d/2}\cdot n/\varepsilon^2)$ samples are necessary and sufficient for independence testing.

The offline reinforcement learning (RL) problem is often motivated by the need to learn data-driven decision policies in financial, legal and healthcare applications. However, the learned policy could retain sensitive information of individuals in the training data (e.g., treatment and outcome of patients), thus susceptible to various privacy risks. We design offline RL algorithms with differential privacy guarantees which provably prevent such risks. These algorithms also enjoy strong instance-dependent learning bounds under both tabular and linear Markov decision process (MDP) settings. Our theory and simulation suggest that the privacy guarantee comes at (almost) no drop in utility comparing to the non-private counterpart for a medium-size dataset.

In Bayesian machine learning and statistics, the central object of interest is the posterior distribution found by Bayesian inference--combining prior beliefs with observations according to Bayes' rule. In simple cases, such as in conjugate models, this can be done exactly. But, general (nonconjugate) models require approximate inference techniques such as Monte Carlo or variational inference. These have complementary strengths and weaknesses, hence the most appropriate choice is application dependent. We focus on variational inference, which is on the one hand not guaranteed to be asymptotically exact but is on the other hand computationally efficient and scalable to high-dimensional models and large datasets.

Originally published on Towards AI the World's Leading AI and Technology News and Media Company. If you are building an AI-related product or service, we invite you to consider becoming an AI sponsor. At Towards AI, we help scale AI and technology startups. Let us help you unleash your technology to the masses. If you've ever come across material that introduces Bayesian Inference, you'll find that it usually involves an example of how misleading some medical testing devices can be in detecting diseases.

Non-linear state-space models, also known as general hidden Markov models, are ubiquitous in statistical machine learning, being the most classical generative models for serial data and sequences in general. The particle-based, rapid incremental smoother PaRIS is a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) technique allowing for efficient online approximation of expectations of additive functionals under the smoothing distribution in these models. Such expectations appear naturally in several learning contexts, such as likelihood estimation (MLE) and Markov score climbing (MSC). PARIS has linear computational complexity, limited memory requirements and comes with non-asymptotic bounds, convergence results and stability guarantees. Still, being based on self-normalised importance sampling, the PaRIS estimator is biased. Our first contribution is to design a novel additive smoothing algorithm, the Parisian particle Gibbs PPG sampler, which can be viewed as a PaRIS algorithm driven by conditional SMC moves, resulting in bias-reduced estimates of the targeted quantities. We substantiate the PPG algorithm with theoretical results, including new bounds on bias and variance as well as deviation inequalities. Our second contribution is to apply PPG in a learning framework, covering MLE and MSC as special examples. In this context, we establish, under standard assumptions, non-asymptotic bounds highlighting the value of bias reduction and the implicit Rao--Blackwellization of PPG. These are the first non-asymptotic results of this kind in this setting. We illustrate our theoretical results with numerical experiments supporting our claims.

Bayesian networks (BNs) are probabilistic graphical models which concisely represent the dependence structure between discrete variables through a directed acyclic graph (DAG) [29, 41]. Any conditional independence between variables embedded in the model can be directly read from the underlying DAG through the so-called D-separation criterion [30]. However, in practical applications, it has been found that often the symmetric assumption of conditional independence is too restrictive and models graphically depicting asymmetric independence are needed. Various notions of asymmetric conditional independence have been since defined, including context-specific [4], partial [32] and local [7], and formal studies of their properties appeared [11, 12, 36, 43]. Although extensions of BNs embedding and representing asymmetric conditional independence have been defined [16, 22, 31, 33, 42], they often lose the intuitiveness associated to DAGs and no software is available for their use in practice.

Directed information (DI) is a fundamental measure for the study and analysis of sequential stochastic models. In particular, when optimized over input distributions it characterizes the capacity of general communication channels. However, analytic computation of DI is typically intractable and existing optimization techniques over discrete input alphabets require knowledge of the channel model, which renders them inapplicable when only samples are available. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel estimation-optimization framework for DI over discrete input spaces. We formulate DI optimization as a Markov decision process and leverage reinforcement learning techniques to optimize a deep generative model of the input process probability mass function (PMF). Combining this optimizer with the recently developed DI neural estimator, we obtain an end-to-end estimation-optimization algorithm which is applied to estimating the (feedforward and feedback) capacity of various discrete channels with memory. Furthermore, we demonstrate how to use the optimized PMF model to (i) obtain theoretical bounds on the feedback capacity of unifilar finite-state channels; and (ii) perform probabilistic shaping of constellations in the peak power-constrained additive white Gaussian noise channel.

We consider infinite horizon Markov decision processes (MDPs) with fast-slow structure, meaning that certain parts of the state space move "fast" (and in a sense, are more influential) while other parts transition more "slowly." Such structure is common in real-world problems where sequential decisions need to be made at high frequencies, yet information that varies at a slower timescale also influences the optimal policy. Examples include: (1) service allocation for a multi-class queue with (slowly varying) stochastic costs, (2) a restless multi-armed bandit with an environmental state, and (3) energy demand response, where both day-ahead and real-time prices play a role in the firm's revenue. Models that fully capture these problems often result in MDPs with large state spaces and large effective time horizons (due to frequent decisions), rendering them computationally intractable. We propose an approximate dynamic programming algorithmic framework based on the idea of "freezing" the slow states, solving a set of simpler finite-horizon MDPs (the lower-level MDPs), and applying value iteration (VI) to an auxiliary MDP that transitions on a slower timescale (the upper-level MDP). We also extend the technique to a function approximation setting, where a feature-based linear architecture is used. On the theoretical side, we analyze the regret incurred by each variant of our frozen-state approach. Finally, we give empirical evidence that the frozen-state approach generates effective policies using just a fraction of the computational cost, while illustrating that simply omitting slow states from the decision modeling is often not a viable heuristic.

Finding discriminant functions of minimum risk binary classification systems is a novel geometric locus problem -- which requires solving a system of fundamental locus equations of binary classification -- subject to deep-seated statistical laws. We show that a discriminant function of a minimum risk binary classification system is the solution of a locus equation that represents the geometric locus of the decision boundary of the system, wherein the discriminant function is connected to the decision boundary by an exclusive principal eigen-coordinate system -- at which point the discriminant function is represented by a geometric locus of a novel principal eigenaxis -- structured as a dual locus of likelihood components and principal eigenaxis components. We demonstrate that a minimum risk binary classification system acts to jointly minimize its eigenenergy and risk by locating a point of equilibrium, at which point critical minimum eigenenergies exhibited by the system are symmetrically concentrated in such a manner that the novel principal eigenaxis of the system exhibits symmetrical dimensions and densities, so that counteracting and opposing forces and influences of the system are symmetrically balanced with each other -- about the geometric center of the locus of the novel principal eigenaxis -- whereon the statistical fulcrum of the system is located. Thereby, a minimum risk binary classification system satisfies a state of statistical equilibrium -- so that the total allowed eigenenergy and the expected risk exhibited by the system are jointly minimized within the decision space of the system -- at which point the system exhibits the minimum probability of classification error.