Human mobility clustering is an important problem for understanding human mobility behaviors (e.g., work and school commutes). Existing methods typically contain two steps: choosing or learning a mobility representation and applying a clustering algorithm to the representation. However, these methods rely on strict visiting orders in trajectories and cannot take advantage of multiple types of mobility representations. This paper proposes a novel mobility clustering method for mobility behavior detection. First, the proposed method contains a permutation-equivalent operation to handle sub-trajectories that might have different visiting orders but similar impacts on mobility behaviors. Second, the proposed method utilizes a variational autoencoder architecture to simultaneously perform clustering in both latent and original spaces. Also, in order to handle the bias of a single latent space, our clustering assignment prediction considers multiple learned latent spaces at different epochs. This way, the proposed method produces accurate results and can provide reliability estimates of each trajectory's cluster assignment. The experiment shows that the proposed method outperformed state-of-the-art methods in mobility behavior detection from trajectories with better accuracy and more interpretability.

Applying deep learning to science is a new trend in recent years which leads DL engineering to become an important problem. Although training data preparation, model architecture design, and model training are the normal processes to build DL models, all of them are complex and costly. Therefore, reusing the open-sourced pre-trained model is a practical way to bypass this hurdle for developers. Given a specific task, developers can collect massive pre-trained deep neural networks from public sources for re-using. However, testing the performance (e.g., accuracy and robustness) of multiple DNNs and recommending which model should be used is challenging regarding the scarcity of labeled data and the demand for domain expertise. In this paper, we propose a labeling-free (LaF) model selection approach to overcome the limitations of labeling efforts for automated model reusing. The main idea is to statistically learn a Bayesian model to infer the models' specialty only based on predicted labels. We evaluate LaF using 9 benchmark datasets including image, text, and source code, and 165 DNNs, considering both the accuracy and robustness of models. The experimental results demonstrate that LaF outperforms the baseline methods by up to 0.74 and 0.53 on Spearman's correlation and Kendall's $\tau$, respectively.

Sequential modelling of high-dimensional data is an important problem that appears in many domains including model-based reinforcement learning and dynamics identification for control. Latent variable models applied to sequential data (i.e., latent dynamics models) have been shown to be a particularly effective probabilistic approach to solve this problem, especially when dealing with images. However, in many application areas (e.g., robotics), information from multiple sensing modalities is available -- existing latent dynamics methods have not yet been extended to effectively make use of such multimodal sequential data. Multimodal sensor streams can be correlated in a useful manner and often contain complementary information across modalities. In this work, we present a self-supervised generative modelling framework to jointly learn a probabilistic latent state representation of multimodal data and the respective dynamics. Using synthetic and real-world datasets from a multimodal robotic planar pushing task, we demonstrate that our approach leads to significant improvements in prediction and representation quality. Furthermore, we compare to the common learning baseline of concatenating each modality in the latent space and show that our principled probabilistic formulation performs better. Finally, despite being fully self-supervised, we demonstrate that our method is nearly as effective as an existing supervised approach that relies on ground truth labels.

This paper considers the problem of system identification (ID) of linear and nonlinear non-autonomous systems from noisy and sparse data. We propose and analyze an objective function derived from a Bayesian formulation for learning a hidden Markov model with stochastic dynamics. We then analyze this objective function in the context of several state-of-the-art approaches for both linear and nonlinear system ID. In the former, we analyze least squares approaches for Markov parameter estimation, and in the latter, we analyze the multiple shooting approach. We demonstrate the limitations of the optimization problems posed by these existing methods by showing that they can be seen as special cases of the proposed optimization objective under certain simplifying assumptions: conditional independence of data and zero model error. Furthermore, we observe that our proposed approach has improved smoothness and inherent regularization that make it well-suited for system ID and provide mathematical explanations for these characteristics' origins. Finally, numerical simulations demonstrate a mean squared error over 8.7 times lower compared to multiple shooting when data are noisy and/or sparse. Moreover, the proposed approach can identify accurate and generalizable models even when there are more parameters than data or when the underlying system exhibits chaotic behavior.

Bayesian networks (BNs) are a probabilistic graphical model widely used for representing expert knowledge and reasoning under uncertainty. Traditionally, they are based on directed acyclic graphs that capture dependencies between random variables. However, directed cycles can naturally arise when cross-dependencies between random variables exist, e.g., for modeling feedback loops. Existing methods to deal with such cross-dependencies usually rely on reductions to BNs without cycles. These approaches are fragile to generalize, since their justifications are intermingled with additional knowledge about the application context. In this paper, we present a foundational study regarding semantics for cyclic BNs that are generic and conservatively extend the cycle-free setting. First, we propose constraint-based semantics that specify requirements for full joint distributions over a BN to be consistent with the local conditional probabilities and independencies. Second, two kinds of limit semantics that formalize infinite unfolding approaches are introduced and shown to be computable by a Markov chain construction.

We describe a method and new no-code software tools enabling domain experts to build custom structured, labeled datasets from the unstructured text of documents and build niche machine learning text classification models traceable to expert-written rules. The Context Rule Assisted Machine Learning (CRAML) method allows accurate and reproducible labeling of massive volumes of unstructured text. CRAML enables domain experts to access uncommon constructs buried within a document corpus, and avoids limitations of current computational approaches that often lack context, transparency, and interpetability. In this research methods paper, we present three use cases for CRAML: we analyze recent management literature that draws from text data, describe and release new machine learning models from an analysis of proprietary job advertisement text, and present findings of social and economic interest from a public corpus of franchise documents. CRAML produces document-level coded tabular datasets that can be used for quantitative academic research, and allows qualitative researchers to scale niche classification schemes over massive text data. CRAML is a low-resource, flexible, and scalable methodology for building training data for supervised ML. We make available as open-source resources: the software, job advertisement text classifiers, a novel corpus of franchise documents, and a fully replicable start-to-finish trained example in the context of no poach clauses.

Understanding and predicting highway lane-change maneuvers is essential for driving modeling and its automation. The development of data-based lane-changing decision-making algorithms is nowadays in full expansion. We compare empirically in this article different machine and ensemble learning classification techniques to the MOBIL rule-based model using trajectory data of European two-lane highways. The analysis relies on instantaneous measurements of up to twenty-four spatial-temporal variables with the four neighboring vehicles on current and adjacent lanes. Preliminary descriptive investigations by principal component and logistic analyses allow identifying main variables intending a driver to change lanes. We predict two types of discretionary lane-change maneuvers: overtaking (from the slow to the fast lane) and fold-down (from the fast to the slow lane). The prediction accuracy is quantified using total, lane-changing and lane-keeping errors and associated receiver operating characteristic curves. The benchmark analysis includes logistic model, linear discriminant, decision tree, na\"ive Bayes classifier, support vector machine, neural network machine learning algorithms, and up to ten bagging and stacking ensemble learning meta-heuristics. If the rule-based model provides limited predicting accuracy, the data-based algorithms, devoid of modeling bias, allow significant prediction improvements. Cross validations show that selected neural networks and stacking algorithms allow predicting from a single observation both fold-down and overtaking maneuvers up to four seconds in advance with high accuracy.

While deep reinforcement learning (RL) has fueled multiple high-profile successes in machine learning, it is held back from more widespread adoption by its often poor data efficiency and the limited generality of the policies it produces. A promising approach for alleviating these limitations is to cast the development of better RL algorithms as a machine learning problem itself in a process called meta-RL. Meta-RL is most commonly studied in a problem setting where, given a distribution of tasks, the goal is to learn a policy that is capable of adapting to any new task from the task distribution with as little data as possible. In this survey, we describe the meta-RL problem setting in detail as well as its major variations. We discuss how, at a high level, meta-RL research can be clustered based on the presence of a task distribution and the learning budget available for each individual task. Using these clusters, we then survey meta-RL algorithms and applications. We conclude by presenting the open problems on the path to making meta-RL part of the standard toolbox for a deep RL practitioner.

We propose a novel online and adaptive truncation method for differentially private Bayesian online estimation of a static parameter regarding a population. We assume that sensitive information from individuals is collected sequentially and the inferential aim is to estimate, on-the-fly, a static parameter regarding the population to which those individuals belong. We propose sequential Monte Carlo to perform online Bayesian estimation. When individuals provide sensitive information in response to a query, it is necessary to perturb it with privacy-preserving noise to ensure the privacy of those individuals. The amount of perturbation is proportional to the sensitivity of the query, which is determined usually by the range of the queried information. The truncation technique we propose adapts to the previously collected observations to adjust the query range for the next individual. The idea is that, based on previous observations, we can carefully arrange the interval into which the next individual's information is to be truncated before being perturbed with privacy-preserving noise. In this way, we aim to design predictive queries with small sensitivity, hence small privacy-preserving noise, enabling more accurate estimation while maintaining the same level of privacy. To decide on the location and the width of the interval, we use an exploration-exploitation approach a la Thompson sampling with an objective function based on the Fisher information of the generated observation. We show the merits of our methodology with numerical examples.

In this paper, I try to tame "Basu's elephants" (data with extreme selection on observables). I propose new practical large-sample and finite-sample methods for estimating and inferring heterogeneous causal effects (under unconfoundedness) in the empirically relevant context of limited overlap. I develop a general principle called "Stable Probability Weighting" (SPW) that can be used as an alternative to the widely used Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) technique, which relies on strong overlap. I show that IPW (or its augmented version), when valid, is a special case of the more general SPW (or its doubly robust version), which adjusts for the extremeness of the conditional probabilities of the treatment states. The SPW principle can be implemented using several existing large-sample parametric, semiparametric, and nonparametric procedures for conditional moment models. In addition, I provide new finite-sample results that apply when unconfoundedness is plausible within fine strata. Since IPW estimation relies on the problematic reciprocal of the estimated propensity score, I develop a "Finite-Sample Stable Probability Weighting" (FPW) set-estimator that is unbiased in a sense. I also propose new finite-sample inference methods for testing a general class of weak null hypotheses. The associated computationally convenient methods, which can be used to construct valid confidence sets and to bound the finite-sample confidence distribution, are of independent interest. My large-sample and finite-sample frameworks extend to the setting of multivalued treatments.