We consider a task of surveillance-evading path-planning in a continuous setting. An Evader strives to escape from a 2D domain while minimizing the risk of detection (and immediate capture). The probability of detection is path-dependent and determined by the spatially inhomogeneous surveillance intensity, which is fixed but a priori unknown and gradually learned in the multi-episodic setting. We introduce a Bayesian reinforcement learning algorithm that relies on a Gaussian Process regression (to model the surveillance intensity function based on the information from prior episodes), numerical methods for Hamilton-Jacobi PDEs (to plan the best continuous trajectories based on the current model), and Confidence Bounds (to balance the exploration vs exploitation). We use numerical experiments and regret metrics to highlight the significant advantages of our approach compared to traditional graph-based algorithms of reinforcement learning.

The cosmic microwave background (CMB) is a significant source of knowledge about the origin and evolution of our universe. However, observations of the CMB are contaminated by foreground emissions, obscuring the CMB signal and reducing its efficacy in constraining cosmological parameters. We employ deep learning as a data-driven approach to CMB cleaning from multi-frequency full-sky maps. In particular, we develop a graph-based Bayesian convolutional neural network based on the U-Net architecture that predicts cleaned CMB with pixel-wise uncertainty estimates. We demonstrate the potential of this technique on realistic simulated data based on the Planck mission. We show that our model accurately recovers the cleaned CMB sky map and resulting angular power spectrum while identifying regions of uncertainty. Finally, we discuss the current challenges and the path forward for deploying our model for CMB recovery on real observations.

With the accelerated technology adoption by a growing number of users, social media have become the main medium for the dissemination of information on current news and events. While these new media bring several benefits (e.g., a large number of consumers reached, instant and continuous updates on one's topics of interest), they also enable the spread of harmful information in the form of fake news, and may thus polarize public discourse regarding critical topics (e.g., elections [32], vaccination [30], health hazards [24]) and threaten democratic values [35]. Because of its detrimental effects on society at large, the fake news phenomenon has been studied by scientists and practitioners alike; fake news is defined as news articles that intentionally contain verifiably false misleading information inconsistent with factual reality [2, 23, 46, 10, 4, 13, 43]. To mitigate the threat of fake news, journalists have started to manually classify news and offer websites with fact-checking mechanisms that provide a verdict regarding its veracity, such as PolitiFact (https://www.politifact.com/)

A promising approach for scalable Gaussian processes (GPs) is the Karhunen-Lo\`eve (KL) decomposition, in which the GP kernel is represented by a set of basis functions which are the eigenfunctions of the kernel operator. Such decomposed kernels have the potential to be very fast, and do not depend on the selection of a reduced set of inducing points. However KL decompositions lead to high dimensionality, and variable selection becomes paramount. This paper reports a new method of forward variable selection, enabled by the ordered nature of the basis functions in the KL expansion of the Bayesian Smoothing Spline ANOVA kernel (BSS-ANOVA), coupled with fast Gibbs sampling in a fully Bayesian approach. It quickly and effectively limits the number of terms, yielding a method with competitive accuracies, training and inference times for tabular datasets of low feature set dimensionality. The inference speed and accuracy makes the method especially useful for dynamic systems identification, by modeling the dynamics in the tangent space as a static problem, then integrating the learned dynamics using a high-order scheme. The methods are demonstrated on two dynamic datasets: a `Susceptible, Infected, Recovered' (SIR) toy problem, with the transmissibility used as forcing function, along with the experimental `Cascaded Tanks' benchmark dataset. Comparisons on the static prediction of time derivatives are made with a random forest (RF), a residual neural network (ResNet), and the Orthogonal Additive Kernel (OAK) inducing points scalable GP, while for the timeseries prediction comparisons are made with LSTM and GRU recurrent neural networks (RNNs) along with the SINDy package.

Solving high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems (BIPs) with the variational inference (VI) method is promising but still challenging. The main difficulties arise from two aspects. First, VI methods approximate the posterior distribution using a simple and analytic variational distribution, which makes it difficult to estimate complex spatially-varying parameters in practice. Second, VI methods typically rely on gradient-based optimization, which can be computationally expensive or intractable when applied to BIPs involving partial differential equations (PDEs). To address these challenges, we propose a novel approximation method for estimating the high-dimensional posterior distribution. This approach leverages a deep generative model to learn a prior model capable of generating spatially-varying parameters. This enables posterior approximation over the latent variable instead of the complex parameters, thus improving estimation accuracy. Moreover, to accelerate gradient computation, we employ a differentiable physics-constrained surrogate model to replace the adjoint method. The proposed method can be fully implemented in an automatic differentiation manner. Numerical examples demonstrate two types of log-permeability estimation for flow in heterogeneous media. The results show the validity, accuracy, and high efficiency of the proposed method.

Gradient boosting machines (GBMs) based on decision trees consistently demonstrate state-of-the-art results on regression and classification tasks with tabular data, often outperforming deep neural networks. However, these models do not provide well-calibrated predictive uncertainties, which prevents their use for decision making in high-risk applications. The Bayesian treatment is known to improve predictive uncertainty calibration, but previously proposed Bayesian GBM methods are either computationally expensive, or resort to crude approximations. Variational inference is often used to implement Bayesian neural networks, but is difficult to apply to GBMs, because the decision trees used as weak learners are non-differentiable. In this paper, we propose to implement Bayesian GBMs using variational inference with soft decision trees, a fully differentiable alternative to standard decision trees introduced by Irsoy et al. Our experiments demonstrate that variational soft trees and variational soft GBMs provide useful uncertainty estimates, while retaining good predictive performance. The proposed models show higher test likelihoods when compared to the state-of-the-art Bayesian GBMs in 7/10 tabular regression datasets and improved out-of-distribution detection in 5/10 datasets.

Deep learning approaches require collection of data on many different input features or variables for accurate model training and prediction. Since data collection on input features could be costly, it is crucial to reduce the cost by selecting a subset of features and developing a budget-constrained model (BCM). In this paper, we introduce an approach to eliminating less important features for big data analysis using Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). Once a DNN model has been developed, we identify the weak links and weak neurons, and remove some input features to bring the model cost within a given budget. The experimental results show our approach is feasible and supports user selection of a suitable BCM within a given budget.

In this work, we consider the off-policy policy evaluation problem for contextual bandits and finite horizon reinforcement learning in the nonstationary setting. Reusing old data is critical for policy evaluation, but existing estimators that reuse old data introduce large bias such that we can not obtain a valid confidence interval. Inspired from a related field called survey sampling, we introduce a variant of the doubly robust (DR) estimator, called the regression-assisted DR estimator, that can incorporate the past data without introducing a large bias. The estimator unifies several existing off-policy policy evaluation methods and improves on them with the use of auxiliary information and a regression approach. We prove that the new estimator is asymptotically unbiased, and provide a consistent variance estimator to a construct a large sample confidence interval. Finally, we empirically show that the new estimator improves estimation for the current and future policy values, and provides a tight and valid interval estimation in several nonstationary recommendation environments.

It is known that gradient-based MCMC samplers for continuous spaces, such as Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC), can be derived as particle versions of a gradient flow that minimizes KL divergence on a Wasserstein manifold. The superior efficiency of such samplers has motivated several recent attempts to generalize LMC to discrete spaces. However, a fully principled extension of Langevin dynamics to discrete spaces has yet to be achieved, due to the lack of well-defined gradients in the sample space. In this work, we show how the Wasserstein gradient flow can be generalized naturally to discrete spaces. Given the proposed formulation, we demonstrate how a discrete analogue of Langevin dynamics can subsequently be developed. With this new understanding, we reveal how recent gradient-based samplers in discrete spaces can be obtained as special cases by choosing particular discretizations. More importantly, the framework also allows for the derivation of novel algorithms, one of which, \textit{Discrete Langevin Monte Carlo} (DLMC), is obtained by a factorized estimate of the transition matrix. The DLMC method admits a convenient parallel implementation and time-uniform sampling that achieves larger jump distances. We demonstrate the advantages of DLMC on various binary and categorical distributions.

This paper investigates MDPs with intermittent state information. We consider a scenario where the controller perceives the state information of the process via an unreliable communication channel. The transmissions of state information over the whole time horizon are modeled as a Bernoulli lossy process. Hence, the problem is finding an optimal policy for selecting actions in the presence of state information losses. We first formulate the problem as a belief MDP to establish structural results. The effect of state information losses on the expected total discounted reward is studied systematically. Then, we reformulate the problem as a tree MDP whose state space is organized in a tree structure. Two finite-state approximations to the tree MDP are developed to find near-optimal policies efficiently. Finally, we put forth a nested value iteration algorithm for the finite-state approximations, which is proved to be faster than standard value iteration. Numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods.