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Finding Regularized Competitive Equilibria of Heterogeneous Agent Macroeconomic Models with Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study a heterogeneous agent macroeconomic model with an infinite number of households and firms competing in a labor market. Each household earns income and engages in consumption at each time step while aiming to maximize a concave utility subject to the underlying market conditions. The households aim to find the optimal saving strategy that maximizes their discounted cumulative utility given the market condition, while the firms determine the market conditions through maximizing corporate profit based on the household population behavior. The model captures a wide range of applications in macroeconomic studies, and we propose a data-driven reinforcement learning framework that finds the regularized competitive equilibrium of the model. The proposed algorithm enjoys theoretical guarantees in converging to the equilibrium of the market at a sub-linear rate.


Noise-Aware Statistical Inference with Differentially Private Synthetic Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While generation of synthetic data under differential privacy (DP) has received a lot of attention in the data privacy community, analysis of synthetic data has received much less. Existing work has shown that simply analysing DP synthetic data as if it were real does not produce valid inferences of population-level quantities. For example, confidence intervals become too narrow, which we demonstrate with a simple experiment. We tackle this problem by combining synthetic data analysis techniques from the field of multiple imputation (MI), and synthetic data generation using noise-aware (NA) Bayesian modeling into a pipeline NA+MI that allows computing accurate uncertainty estimates for population-level quantities from DP synthetic data. To implement NA+MI for discrete data generation using the values of marginal queries, we develop a novel noise-aware synthetic data generation algorithm NAPSU-MQ using the principle of maximum entropy. Our experiments demonstrate that the pipeline is able to produce accurate confidence intervals from DP synthetic data. The intervals become wider with tighter privacy to accurately capture the additional uncertainty stemming from DP noise.


Towards Computationally Efficient Responsibility Attribution in Decentralized Partially Observable MDPs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Responsibility attribution is a key concept of accountable multi-agent decision making. Given a sequence of actions, responsibility attribution mechanisms quantify the impact of each participating agent to the final outcome. One such popular mechanism is based on actual causality, and it assigns (causal) responsibility based on the actions that were found to be pivotal for the considered outcome. However, the inherent problem of pinpointing actual causes and consequently determining the exact responsibility assignment has shown to be computationally intractable. In this paper, we aim to provide a practical algorithmic solution to the problem of responsibility attribution under a computational budget. We first formalize the problem in the framework of Decentralized Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (Dec-POMDPs) augmented by a specific class of Structural Causal Models (SCMs). Under this framework, we introduce a Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) type of method which efficiently approximates the agents' degrees of responsibility. This method utilizes the structure of a novel search tree and a pruning technique, both tailored to the problem of responsibility attribution. Other novel components of our method are (a) a child selection policy based on linear scalarization and (b) a backpropagation procedure that accounts for a minimality condition that is typically used to define actual causality. We experimentally evaluate the efficacy of our algorithm through a simulation-based test-bed, which includes three team-based card games.


Securing IoT Communication using Physical Sensor Data -- Graph Layer Security with Federated Multi-Agent Deep Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Internet-of-Things (IoT) devices are often used to transmit physical sensor data over digital wireless channels. Traditional Physical Layer Security (PLS)-based cryptography approaches rely on accurate channel estimation and information exchange for key generation, which irrevocably ties key quality with digital channel estimation quality. Recently, we proposed a new concept called Graph Layer Security (GLS), where digital keys are derived from physical sensor readings. The sensor readings between legitimate users are correlated through a common background infrastructure environment (e.g., a common water distribution network or electric grid). The challenge for GLS has been how to achieve distributed key generation. This paper presents a Federated multi-agent Deep reinforcement learning-assisted Distributed Key generation scheme (FD2K), which fully exploits the common features of physical dynamics to establish secret key between legitimate users. We present for the first time initial experimental results of GLS with federated learning, achieving considerable security performance in terms of key agreement rate (KAR), and key randomness.


Pandering in a Flexible Representative Democracy

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In representative democracies, the election of new representatives in regular election cycles is meant to prevent corruption and other misbehavior by elected officials and to keep them accountable in service of the ``will of the people." This democratic ideal can be undermined when candidates are dishonest when campaigning for election over these multiple cycles or rounds of voting. Much of the work on COMSOC to date has investigated strategic actions in only a single round. We introduce a novel formal model of \emph{pandering}, or strategic preference reporting by candidates seeking to be elected, and examine the resilience of two democratic voting systems to pandering within a single round and across multiple rounds. The two voting systems we compare are Representative Democracy (RD) and Flexible Representative Democracy (FRD). For each voting system, our analysis centers on the types of strategies candidates employ and how voters update their views of candidates based on how the candidates have pandered in the past. We provide theoretical results on the complexity of pandering in our setting for a single cycle, formulate our problem for multiple cycles as a Markov Decision Process, and use reinforcement learning to study the effects of pandering by both single candidates and groups of candidates across a number of rounds.


Nearly Optimal Latent State Decoding in Block MDPs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We investigate the problems of model estimation and reward-free learning in episodic Block MDPs. In these MDPs, the decision maker has access to rich observations or contexts generated from a small number of latent states. We are first interested in estimating the latent state decoding function (the mapping from the observations to latent states) based on data generated under a fixed behavior policy. We derive an information-theoretical lower bound on the error rate for estimating this function and present an algorithm approaching this fundamental limit. In turn, our algorithm also provides estimates of all the components of the MDP. We then study the problem of learning near-optimal policies in the reward-free framework. Based on our efficient model estimation algorithm, we show that we can infer a policy converging (as the number of collected samples grows large) to the optimal policy at the best possible rate. Interestingly, our analysis provides necessary and sufficient conditions under which exploiting the block structure yields improvements in the sample complexity for identifying near-optimal policies. When these conditions are met, the sample complexity in the minimax reward-free setting is improved by a multiplicative factor $n$, where $n$ is the number of possible contexts.


A Song of Ice and Fire: Analyzing Textual Autotelic Agents in ScienceWorld

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Building open-ended agents that can autonomously discover a diversity of behaviours is one of the long-standing goals of artificial intelligence. This challenge can be studied in the framework of autotelic RL agents, i.e. agents that learn by selecting and pursuing their own goals, self-organizing a learning curriculum. Recent work identified language as a key dimension of autotelic learning, in particular because it enables abstract goal sampling and guidance from social peers for hindsight relabelling. Within this perspective, we study the following open scientific questions: What is the impact of hindsight feedback from a social peer (e.g. selective vs. exhaustive)? How can the agent learn from very rare language goal examples in its experience replay? How can multiple forms of exploration be combined, and take advantage of easier goals as stepping stones to reach harder ones? To address these questions, we use ScienceWorld, a textual environment with rich abstract and combinatorial physics. We show the importance of selectivity from the social peer's feedback; that experience replay needs to over-sample examples of rare goals; and that following self-generated goal sequences where the agent's competence is intermediate leads to significant improvements in final performance.


A Machine Learning Approach for Hierarchical Classification of Software Requirements

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Context: Classification of software requirements into different categories is a critically important task in requirements engineering (RE). Developing machine learning (ML) approaches for requirements classification has attracted great interest in the RE community since the 2000s. Objective: This paper aims to address two related problems that have been challenging real-world applications of ML approaches: the problems of class imbalance and high dimensionality with low sample size data (HDLSS). These problems can greatly degrade the classification performance of ML methods. Method: The paper proposes HC4RC, a novel ML approach for multiclass classification of requirements. HC4RC solves the aforementioned problems through semantic-role-based feature selection, dataset decomposition and hierarchical classification. We experimentally compare the effectiveness of HC4RC with three closely related approaches - two of which are based on a traditional statistical classification model whereas one uses an advanced deep learning model. Results: Our experiment shows: 1) The class imbalance and HDLSS problems present a challenge to both traditional and advanced ML approaches. 2) The HC4RC approach is simple to use and can effectively address the class imbalance and HDLSS problems compared to similar approaches. Conclusion: This paper makes an important practical contribution to addressing the class imbalance and HDLSS problems in multiclass classification of software requirements.


Retrieved Sequence Augmentation for Protein Representation Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Protein language models have excelled in a variety of tasks, ranging from structure prediction to protein engineering. However, proteins are highly diverse in functions and structures, and current state-of-the-art models including the latest version of AlphaFold rely on Multiple Sequence Alignments (MSA) to feed in the evolutionary knowledge. Despite their success, heavy computational overheads, as well as the de novo and orphan proteins remain great challenges in protein representation learning. In this work, we show that MSAaugmented models inherently belong to retrievalaugmented methods. Motivated by this finding, we introduce Retrieved Sequence Augmentation(RSA) for protein representation learning without additional alignment or pre-processing. RSA links query protein sequences to a set of sequences with similar structures or properties in the database and combines these sequences for downstream prediction. We show that protein language models benefit from the retrieval enhancement on both structure prediction and property prediction tasks, with a 5% improvement on MSA Transformer on average while being 373 times faster. In addition, we show that our model can transfer to new protein domains better and outperforms MSA Transformer on de novo protein prediction. Our study fills a much-encountered gap in protein prediction and brings us a step closer to demystifying the domain knowledge needed to understand protein sequences. Code is available on https://github.com/HKUNLP/RSA.


Introduction to the Special Track on Artificial Intelligence and COVID-19

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

The human race is facing one of the most meaningful public health emergencies in the modern era caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. This pandemic introduced various challenges, from lock-downs with significant economic costs to fundamentally altering the way of life for many people around the world. The battle to understand and control the virus is still at its early stages yet meaningful insights have already been made. The uncertainty of why some patients are infected and experience severe symptoms, while others are infected but asymptomatic, and others are not infected at all, makes managing this pandemic very challenging. Furthermore, the development of treatments and vaccines relies on knowledge generated from an ever evolving and expanding information space. Given the availability of digital data in the modern era, artificial intelligence (AI) is a meaningful tool for addressing the various challenges introduced by this unexpected pandemic. Some of the challenges include: outbreak prediction, risk modeling including infection and symptom development, testing strategy optimization, drug development, treatment repurposing, vaccine development, and others.