We propose a method for optimal Bayesian filtering with deterministic particles. In order to avoid particle degeneration, the filter step is not performed at once. Instead, the particles progressively flow from prior to posterior. This is achieved by splitting the filter step into a series of sub-steps. In each sub-step, optimal resampling is done by a map that replaces non-equally weighted particles with equally weighted ones. Inversions of the maps or monotonicity constraints are not required, greatly simplifying the procedure. The parameters of the mapping network are optimized w.r.t.\ to a particle set distance. This distance is differentiable, and compares non-equally and equally weighted particles. Composition of the map sequence provides a final mapping from prior to posterior particles. Radial basis function neural networks are used as maps. It is important that no intermediate continuous density representation is required. The entire flow works directly with particle representations. This avoids costly density estimation.

Altitude-controlled balloons hold great promise for performing high-priority scientific investigations of Venus's atmosphere and geological phenomena, including tectonic and volcanic activity, as demonstrated by a number of recent Earth-based experiments. In this paper, we explore a concept of operations where multiple autonomous, altitude-controlled balloons monitor explosive volcanic activity on Venus through infrasound microbarometers, and autonomously navigate the uncertain wind field to perform follow-on observations of detected events of interest. We propose a novel autonomous guidance technique for altitude-controlled balloons in Venus's uncertain wind field, and show the approach can result in an increase of up to 63% in the number of close-up observations of volcanic events compared to passive drifters, and a 16% increase compared to ground-in-the-loop guidance. The results are robust to uncertainty in the wind field, and hold across large changes in the frequency of explosive volcanic events, sensitivity of the microbarometer detectors, and numbers of aerial platforms.

Despite the robust security features inherent in the 5G framework, attackers will still discover ways to disrupt 5G unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) operations and decrease UAV control communication performance in Air-to-Ground (A2G) links. Operating under the assumption that the 5G UAV communications infrastructure will never be entirely secure, we propose Deep Attention Recognition (DAtR) as a solution to identify attacks based on a small deep network embedded in authenticated UAVs. In the tested scenarios, a number of attackers are located in random positions, while their power is varied in each simulation. Moreover, terrestrial users are included in the network to impose additional complexity on attack detection. To improve the system's overall performance in the attack scenarios, we propose complementing the deep network decision with two mechanisms based on data manipulation and majority voting techniques. We compare several performance parameters in our proposed Deep Network. For example, the impact of Long Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) and Attention layers in terms of their overall accuracy, the window size effect, and test the accuracy when only partial data is available in the training process. Finally, we benchmark our deep network with six widely used classifiers regarding classification accuracy. Our algorithm's accuracy exceeds 4% compared with the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) classifier in LoS condition and around 3% in the short distance NLoS condition. Considering the proposed deep network, all other classifiers present lower accuracy than XGB. UAVs will play a crucial role in emergency response [1, 2], package delivery in the logistics industry, and in temporal events, [2]. UAVs are becoming more common and reliable [3] due to technological advancements [4, 5], as well as the improvements in energy-efficient UAV's trajectory optimizations algorithms to be feasible in practice to take into account the dynamics of the UAV as a parametrized method [6, 7, 8], thus integrating UAVs into 5G and 6G networks will increase telecommunication coverage and reduce costs for businesses willing to invest in this technology. However, UAVs can easily be hacked by malicious users [9] throughout their wireless communication channels, which might divert delivery packets from their destinations. This can have disastrous consequences in unfortunate climate events where UAVs are transporting people to hospitals, or in cases of criminal investigations.

The problem of model selection with a limited number of experimental trials has received considerable attention in cognitive science, where the role of experiments is to discriminate between theories expressed as computational models. Research on this subject has mostly been restricted to optimal experiment design with analytically tractable models. However, cognitive models of increasing complexity, with intractable likelihoods, are becoming more commonplace. In this paper, we propose BOSMOS: an approach to experimental design that can select between computational models without tractable likelihoods. It does so in a data-efficient manner, by sequentially and adaptively generating informative experiments. In contrast to previous approaches, we introduce a novel simulator-based utility objective for design selection, and a new approximation of the model likelihood for model selection. In simulated experiments, we demonstrate that the proposed BOSMOS technique can accurately select models in up to 2 orders of magnitude less time than existing LFI alternatives for three cognitive science tasks: memory retention, sequential signal detection and risky choice.

Standard Markov decision process (MDP) and reinforcement learning algorithms optimize the policy with respect to the expected gain. We propose an algorithm which enables to optimize an alternative objective: the probability that the gain is greater than a given value. The algorithm can be seen as an extension of the value iteration algorithm. We also show how the proposed algorithm could be generalized to use neural networks, similarly to the deep Q learning extension of Q learning.

We present the first calibration of quantum decision theory (QDT) to a dataset of binary risky choice. We quantitatively account for the fraction of choice reversals between two repetitions of the experiment, using a probabilistic choice formulation in the simplest form without model assumption or adjustable parameters. The prediction of choice reversal is then refined by introducing heterogeneity between decision makers through their differentiation into two groups: ``majoritarian'' and ``contrarian'' (in proportion 3:1). This supports the first fundamental tenet of QDT, which models choice as an inherent probabilistic process, where the probability of a prospect can be expressed as the sum of its utility and attraction factors. We propose to parameterise the utility factor with a stochastic version of cumulative prospect theory (logit-CPT), and the attraction factor with a constant absolute risk aversion (CARA) function. For this dataset, and penalising the larger number of QDT parameters via the Wilks test of nested hypotheses, the QDT model is found to perform significantly better than logit-CPT at both the aggregate and individual levels, and for all considered fit criteria for the first experiment iteration and for predictions (second ``out-of-sample'' iteration). The distinctive QDT effect captured by the attraction factor is mostly appreciable (i.e., most relevant and strongest in amplitude) for prospects with big losses. Our quantitative analysis of the experimental results supports the existence of an intrinsic limit of predictability, which is associated with the inherent probabilistic nature of choice. The results of the paper can find applications both in the prediction of choice of human decision makers as well as for organizing the operation of artificial intelligence.

Real world applications of Reinforcement Learning (RL) are often partially observable, thus requiring memory. Despite this, partial observability is still largely ignored by contemporary RL benchmarks and libraries. We introduce Partially Observable Process Gym (POPGym), a two-part library containing (1) a diverse collection of 15 partially observable environments, each with multiple difficulties and (2) implementations of 13 memory model baselines -- the most in a single RL library. Existing partially observable benchmarks tend to fixate on 3D visual navigation, which is computationally expensive and only one type of POMDP. In contrast, POPGym environments are diverse, produce smaller observations, use less memory, and often converge within two hours of training on a consumer-grade GPU. We implement our high-level memory API and memory baselines on top of the popular RLlib framework, providing plug-and-play compatibility with various training algorithms, exploration strategies, and distributed training paradigms. Using POPGym, we execute the largest comparison across RL memory models to date. POPGym is available at https://github.com/proroklab/popgym.

Causality has the potential to truly transform the way we solve a large number of real-world problems. Yet, so far, its potential remains largely unlocked since most work so far requires strict assumptions which do not hold true in practice. To address this challenge and make progress in solving real-world problems, we propose a new way of thinking about causality - we call this causal deep learning. The framework which we propose for causal deep learning spans three dimensions: (1) a structural dimension, which allows incomplete causal knowledge rather than assuming either full or no causal knowledge; (2) a parametric dimension, which encompasses parametric forms which are typically ignored; and finally, (3) a temporal dimension, which explicitly allows for situations which capture exposure times or temporal structure. Together, these dimensions allow us to make progress on a variety of real-world problems by leveraging (sometimes incomplete) causal knowledge and/or combining diverse causal deep learning methods. This new framework also enables researchers to compare systematically across existing works as well as identify promising research areas which can lead to real-world impact.

Abstract-- When the traffic stream is extremely congested and surrounding vehicles are not cooperative, the mandatory lane changing can be significantly difficult. In this work, we propose an interactive trajectory planner, which will firstly attempt to change lanes as long as safety is ensured. Based on receding horizon planning, the ego vehicle can abort or continue changing lanes according to surrounding vehicles' reactions. We demonstrate the performance of our planner in extensive simulations with eight surrounding vehicles, initial velocity ranging from 0.5 to 5 meters per second, and bumper to bumper gap ranging from 4 to 10 meters. The ego vehicle with our planner can change lanes safely and smoothly. The computation time of the planner at every step is within 10 milliseconds in most cases on a laptop with 1.8GHz Intel Core i7-10610U.

Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) with high dimensionality are commonly encountered in computational physics and engineering. However, finding solutions for these PDEs can be computationally expensive, making model-order reduction crucial. We propose such a data-driven scheme that automates the identification of the time-scales involved and can produce stable predictions forward in time as well as under different initial conditions not included in the training data. To this end, we combine a non-linear autoencoder architecture with a time-continuous model for the latent dynamics in the complex space. It readily allows for the inclusion of sparse and irregularly sampled training data. The learned, latent dynamics are interpretable and reveal the different temporal scales involved. We show that this data-driven scheme can automatically learn the independent processes that decompose a system of linear ODEs along the eigenvectors of the system's matrix. Apart from this, we demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework in a hidden Markov Model and the (discretized) Kuramoto-Shivashinsky (KS) equation. Additionally, we propose a probabilistic version, which captures predictive uncertainties and further improves upon the results of the deterministic framework.