The increasing connectivity and intricate remote access environment have made traditional perimeter-based network defense vulnerable. Zero trust becomes a promising approach to provide defense policies based on agent-centric trust evaluation. However, the limited observations of the agent's trace bring information asymmetry in the decision-making. To facilitate the human understanding of the policy and the technology adoption, one needs to create a zero-trust defense that is explainable to humans and adaptable to different attack scenarios. To this end, we propose a scenario-agnostic zero-trust defense based on Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDP) and first-order Meta-Learning using only a handful of sample scenarios. The framework leads to an explainable and generalizable trust-threshold defense policy. To address the distribution shift between empirical security datasets and reality, we extend the model to a robust zero-trust defense minimizing the worst-case loss. We use case studies and real-world attacks to corroborate the results.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has recently proven itself as a powerful instrument for solving complex problems and even surpassed human performance in several challenging applications. This signifies that RL algorithms can be used in the autonomous air combat problem, which has been studied for many years. The complexity of air combat arises from aggressive close-range maneuvers and agile enemy behaviors. In addition to these complexities, there may be uncertainties in real-life scenarios due to sensor errors, which prevent estimation of the actual position of the enemy. In this case, autonomous aircraft should be successful even in the noisy environments. In this study, we developed an air combat simulation, which provides noisy observations to the agents, therefore, make the air combat problem even more challenging. Thus, we present a state stacking method for noisy RL environments as a noise reduction technique. In our extensive set of experiments, the proposed method significantly outperforms the baseline algorithms in terms of the winning ratio, where the performance improvement is even more pronounced in the high noise levels. In addition, we incorporate a self-play scheme to our training process by periodically updating the enemy with a frozen copy of the training agent. By this way, the training agent performs air combat simulations to an enemy with smarter strategies, which improves the performance and robustness of the agents. In our simulations, we demonstrate that the self-play scheme provides important performance gains compared to the classical RL training.

Score-based modeling through stochastic differential equations (SDEs) has provided a new perspective on diffusion models, and demonstrated superior performance on continuous data. However, the gradient of the log-likelihood function, i.e., the score function, is not properly defined for discrete spaces. This makes it non-trivial to adapt \textcolor{\cdiff}{the score-based modeling} to categorical data. In this paper, we extend diffusion models to discrete variables by introducing a stochastic jump process where the reverse process denoises via a continuous-time Markov chain. This formulation admits an analytical simulation during backward sampling. To learn the reverse process, we extend score matching to general categorical data and show that an unbiased estimator can be obtained via simple matching of the conditional marginal distributions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method on a set of synthetic and real-world music and image benchmarks.

We present a novel approach to transcranial ultrasound computed tomography that utilizes normalizing flows to improve the speed of imaging and provide Bayesian uncertainty quantification. Our method combines physics-informed methods and data-driven methods to accelerate the reconstruction of the final image. We make use of a physics-informed summary statistic to incorporate the known ultrasound physics with the goal of compressing large incoming observations. This compression enables efficient training of the normalizing flow and standardizes the size of the data regardless of imaging configurations. The combinations of these methods results in fast uncertainty-aware image reconstruction that generalizes to a variety of transducer configurations. We evaluate our approach with in silico experiments and demonstrate that it can significantly improve the imaging speed while quantifying uncertainty. We validate the quality of our image reconstructions by comparing against the traditional physics-only method and also verify that our provided uncertainty is calibrated with the error.

Under stringent model type and variable distribution assumptions, differentiable score-based causal discovery methods learn a directed acyclic graph (DAG) from observational data by evaluating candidate graphs over an average score function. Despite great success in low-dimensional linear systems, it has been observed that these approaches overly exploit easier-to-fit samples, thus inevitably learning spurious edges. Worse still, the common homogeneity assumption can be easily violated, due to the widespread existence of heterogeneous data in the real world, resulting in performance vulnerability when noise distributions vary. We propose a simple yet effective model-agnostic framework to boost causal discovery performance by dynamically learning the adaptive weights for the Reweighted Score function, ReScore for short, where the weights tailor quantitatively to the importance degree of each sample. Intuitively, we leverage the bilevel optimization scheme to alternately train a standard DAG learner and reweight samples -- that is, upweight the samples the learner fails to fit and downweight the samples that the learner easily extracts the spurious information from. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets are carried out to validate the effectiveness of ReScore. We observe consistent and significant boosts in structure learning performance. Furthermore, we visualize that ReScore concurrently mitigates the influence of spurious edges and generalizes to heterogeneous data. Finally, we perform the theoretical analysis to guarantee the structure identifiability and the weight adaptive properties of ReScore in linear systems. Learning causal structure from purely observational data (i.e., causal discovery) is a fundamental but daunting task (Chickering et al., 2004; Shen et al., 2020). It strives to identify causal relationships between variables and encode the conditional independence as a directed acyclic graph (DAG).

We examine whether large neural language models, trained on very large collections of varied English text, learn the potentially long-distance dependency of British versus American spelling conventions, i.e., whether spelling is consistently one or the other within model-generated strings. In contrast to long-distance dependencies in non-surface underlying structure (e.g., syntax), spelling consistency is easier to measure both in LMs and the text corpora used to train them, which can provide additional insight into certain observed model behaviors. Using a set of probe words unique to either British or American English, we first establish that training corpora exhibit substantial (though not total) consistency. A large T5 language model does appear to internalize this consistency, though only with respect to observed lexical items (not nonce words with British/American spelling patterns). We further experiment with correcting for biases in the training data by fine-tuning T5 on synthetic data that has been debiased, and find that finetuned T5 remains only somewhat sensitive to spelling consistency. Further experiments show GPT2 to be similarly limited.

Deep neural networks can learn powerful prior probability models for images, as evidenced by the high-quality generations obtained with recent score-based diffusion methods. But the means by which these networks capture complex global statistical structure, apparently without suffering from the curse of dimensionality, remain a mystery. To study this, we incorporate diffusion methods into a multi-scale decomposition, reducing dimensionality by assuming a stationary local Markov model for wavelet coefficients conditioned on coarser-scale coefficients. We instantiate this model using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) with local receptive fields, which enforce both the stationarity and Markov properties. Global structures are captured using a CNN with receptive fields covering the entire (but small) low-pass image. We test this model on a dataset of face images, which are highly non-stationary and contain large-scale geometric structures. Remarkably, denoising, super-resolution, and image synthesis results all demonstrate that these structures can be captured with significantly smaller conditioning neighborhoods than required by a Markov model implemented in the pixel domain. Our results show that score estimation for large complex images can be reduced to low-dimensional Markov conditional models across scales, alleviating the curse of dimensionality. Deep neural networks (DNNs) have produced dramatic advances in synthesizing complex images and solving inverse problems, all of which rely (at least implicitly) on prior probability models.

Traditional models of opinion dynamics provide a simple approach to understanding human behavior in basic social scenarios. However, when it comes to issues such as polarization and extremism, we require a more nuanced understanding of human biases and cognitive tendencies. In this paper, we propose an approach to modeling opinion dynamics by integrating mental models and assumptions of individuals agents using Bayesian-inspired methods. By exploring the relationship between human rationality and Bayesian theory, we demonstrate the efficacy of these methods in describing how opinions evolve. Our analysis leverages the Continuous Opinions and Discrete Actions (CODA) model, applying Bayesian-inspired rules to account for key human behaviors such as confirmation bias, motivated reasoning, and our reluctance to change opinions. Through this, we obtain update rules that offer deeper insights into the dynamics of extreme opinions. Our work sheds light on the role of human biases in shaping opinion dynamics and highlights the potential of Bayesian-inspired modeling to provide more accurate predictions of real-world scenarios. Keywords: Opinion dynamics, Bayesian methods, Cognition, CODA, Agent-based models

We study the Bayesian regret of the renowned Thompson Sampling algorithm in contextual bandits with binary losses and adversarially-selected contexts. We adapt the information-theoretic perspective of \cite{RvR16} to the contextual setting by considering a lifted version of the information ratio defined in terms of the unknown model parameter instead of the optimal action or optimal policy as done in previous works on the same setting. This allows us to bound the regret in terms of the entropy of the prior distribution through a remarkably simple proof, and with no structural assumptions on the likelihood or the prior. The extension to priors with infinite entropy only requires a Lipschitz assumption on the log-likelihood. An interesting special case is that of logistic bandits with $d$-dimensional parameters, $K$ actions, and Lipschitz logits, for which we provide a $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{dKT})$ regret upper-bound that does not depend on the smallest slope of the sigmoid link function.

Whilst the partial differential equations that govern the dynamics of our world have been studied in great depth for centuries, solving them for complex, high-dimensional conditions and domains still presents an incredibly large mathematical and computational challenge. Analytical methods can be cumbersome to utilise, and numerical methods can lead to errors and inaccuracies. On top of this, sometimes we lack the information or knowledge to pose the problem well enough to apply these kinds of methods. Here, we present a new approach to approximating the solution to physical systems - physics-informed neural networks. The concept of artificial neural networks is introduced, the objective function is defined, and optimisation strategies are discussed. The partial differential equation is then included as a constraint in the loss function for the optimisation problem, giving the network access to knowledge of the dynamics of the physical system it is modelling. Some intuitive examples are displayed, and more complex applications are considered to showcase the power of physics informed neural networks, such as in seismic imaging. Solution error is analysed, and suggestions are made to improve convergence and/or solution precision. Problems and limitations are also touched upon in the conclusions, as well as some thoughts as to where physics informed neural networks are most useful, and where they could go next.