Robots that can effectively understand human intentions from actions are crucial for successful human-robot collaboration. In this work, we address the challenge of a robot navigating towards an unknown goal while also accounting for a human's preference for a particular path in the presence of obstacles. This problem is particularly challenging when both the goal and path preference are unknown a priori. To overcome this challenge, we propose a method for encoding and inferring path preference online using a partitioning of the space into polytopes. Our approach enables joint inference over the goal and path preference using a stochastic observation model for the human. We evaluate our method on an unknown-goal navigation problem with sparse human interventions, and find that it outperforms baseline approaches as the human's inputs become increasingly sparse. We find that the time required to update the robot's belief does not increase with the complexity of the environment, which makes our method suitable for online applications.

Understanding generalization is crucial to confidently engineer and deploy machine learning models, especially when deployment implies a shift in the data domain. For such domain adaptation problems, we seek generalization bounds which are tractably computable and tight. If these desiderata can be reached, the bounds can serve as guarantees for adequate performance in deployment. However, in applications where deep neural networks are the models of choice, deriving results which fulfill these remains an unresolved challenge; most existing bounds are either vacuous or has non-estimable terms, even in favorable conditions. In this work, we evaluate existing bounds from the literature with potential to satisfy our desiderata on domain adaptation image classification tasks, where deep neural networks are preferred. We find that all bounds are vacuous and that sample generalization terms account for much of the observed looseness, especially when these terms interact with measures of domain shift. To overcome this and arrive at the tightest possible results, we combine each bound with recent data-dependent PAC-Bayes analysis, greatly improving the guarantees. We find that, when domain overlap can be assumed, a simple importance weighting extension of previous work provides the tightest estimable bound. Finally, we study which terms dominate the bounds and identify possible directions for further improvement.

This study considers the object localization problem and proposes a novel multiparticle Kalman filter to solve it in complex and symmetric environments. Two well-known classes of filtering algorithms to solve the localization problem are Kalman filter-based methods and particle filter-based methods. We consider these classes, demonstrate their complementary properties, and propose a novel filtering algorithm that takes the best from two classes. We evaluate the multiparticle Kalman filter in symmetric and noisy environments. Such environments are especially challenging for both classes of classical methods. We compare the proposed approach with the particle filter since only this method is feasible if the initial state is unknown. In the considered challenging environments, our method outperforms the particle filter in terms of both localization error and runtime.

This paper presents a novel approach to solve simultaneously the problems of human activity recognition and whole-body motion and dynamics prediction for real-time applications. Starting from the dynamics of human motion and motor system theory, the notion of mixture of experts from deep learning has been extended to address this problem. In the proposed approach, experts are modelled as a sequence-to-sequence recurrent neural networks (RNN) architecture. Experiments show the results of 66-DoF real-world human motion prediction and action recognition during different tasks like walking and rotating. The code associated with this paper is available at: \url{github.com/ami-iit/paper_darvish_2022_humanoids_action-kindyn-predicition}

Distinguishing cause from effect using observations of a pair of random variables is a core problem in causal discovery. Most approaches proposed for this task, namely additive noise models (ANM), are only adequate for quantitative data. We propose a criterion to address the cause-effect problem with categorical variables (living in sets with no meaningful order), inspired by seeing a conditional probability mass function (pmf) as a discrete memoryless channel. We select as the most likely causal direction the one in which the conditional pmf is closer to a uniform channel (UC). The rationale is that, in a UC, as in an ANM, the conditional entropy (of the effect given the cause) is independent of the cause distribution, in agreement with the principle of independence of cause and mechanism. Our approach, which we call the uniform channel model (UCM), thus extends the ANM rationale to categorical variables. To assess how close a conditional pmf (estimated from data) is to a UC, we use statistical testing, supported by a closed-form estimate of a UC channel. On the theoretical front, we prove identifiability of the UCM and show its equivalence with a structural causal model with a low-cardinality exogenous variable. Finally, the proposed method compares favorably with recent state-of-the-art alternatives in experiments on synthetic, benchmark, and real data.

We study Markov decision processes (MDPs), where agents have direct control over when and how they gather information, as formalized by action-contingent noiselessly observable MDPs (ACNO-MPDs). In these models, actions consist of two components: a control action that affects the environment, and a measurement action that affects what the agent can observe. To solve ACNO-MDPs, we introduce the act-then-measure (ATM) heuristic, which assumes that we can ignore future state uncertainty when choosing control actions. We show how following this heuristic may lead to shorter policy computation times and prove a bound on the performance loss incurred by the heuristic. To decide whether or not to take a measurement action, we introduce the concept of measuring value. We develop a reinforcement learning algorithm based on the ATM heuristic, using a Dyna-Q variant adapted for partially observable domains, and showcase its superior performance compared to prior methods on a number of partially-observable environments.

Neural-symbolic AI (NeSy) allows neural networks to exploit symbolic background knowledge in the form of logic. It has been shown to aid learning in the limited data regime and to facilitate inference on out-of-distribution data. Probabilistic NeSy focuses on integrating neural networks with both logic and probability theory, which additionally allows learning under uncertainty. A major limitation of current probabilistic NeSy systems, such as DeepProbLog, is their restriction to finite probability distributions, i.e., discrete random variables. In contrast, deep probabilistic programming (DPP) excels in modelling and optimising continuous probability distributions. Hence, we introduce DeepSeaProbLog, a neural probabilistic logic programming language that incorporates DPP techniques into NeSy. Doing so results in the support of inference and learning of both discrete and continuous probability distributions under logical constraints. Our main contributions are 1) the semantics of DeepSeaProbLog and its corresponding inference algorithm, 2) a proven asymptotically unbiased learning algorithm, and 3) a series of experiments that illustrate the versatility of our approach.

Variational inference is a technique for approximating intractable posterior distributions in order to quantify the uncertainty of machine learning. Although the unimodal Gaussian distribution is usually chosen as a parametric distribution, it hardly approximates the multimodality. In this paper, we employ the Gaussian mixture distribution as a parametric distribution. A main difficulty of variational inference with the Gaussian mixture is how to approximate the entropy of the Gaussian mixture. We approximate the entropy of the Gaussian mixture as the sum of the entropy of the unimodal Gaussian, which can be analytically calculated. In addition, we theoretically analyze the approximation error between the true entropy and approximated one in order to reveal when our approximation works well. Specifically, the approximation error is controlled by the ratios of the distances between the means to the sum of the variances of the Gaussian mixture. Furthermore, it converges to zero when the ratios go to infinity. This situation seems to be more likely to occur in higher dimensional parametric spaces because of the curse of dimensionality. Therefore, our result guarantees that our approximation works well, for example, in neural networks that assume a large number of weights.

The adaptive social learning paradigm helps model how networked agents are able to form opinions on a state of nature and track its drifts in a changing environment. In this framework, the agents repeatedly update their beliefs based on private observations and exchange the beliefs with their neighbors. In this work, it is shown how the sequence of publicly exchanged beliefs over time allows users to discover rich information about the underlying network topology and about the flow of information over the graph. In particular, it is shown that it is possible (i) to identify the influence of each individual agent to the objective of truth learning, (ii) to discover how well-informed each agent is, (iii) to quantify the pairwise influences between agents, and (iv) to learn the underlying network topology. The algorithm derived herein is also able to work under non-stationary environments where either the true state of nature or the graph topology are allowed to drift over time. We apply the proposed algorithm to different subnetworks of Twitter users, and identify the most influential and central agents by using their public tweets (posts).

Infectious diseases remain among the top contributors to human illness and death worldwide, among which many diseases produce epidemic waves of infection. The unavailability of specific drugs and ready-to-use vaccines to prevent most of these epidemics makes the situation worse. These force public health officials and policymakers to rely on early warning systems generated by reliable and accurate forecasts of epidemics. Accurate forecasts of epidemics can assist stakeholders in tailoring countermeasures, such as vaccination campaigns, staff scheduling, and resource allocation, to the situation at hand, which could translate to reductions in the impact of a disease. Unfortunately, most of these past epidemics exhibit nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics due to their spreading fluctuations based on seasonal-dependent variability and the nature of these epidemics. We analyse a wide variety of epidemic time series datasets using a maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) based autoregressive neural network and call it EWNet model. MODWT techniques effectively characterize non-stationary behavior and seasonal dependencies in the epidemic time series and improve the nonlinear forecasting scheme of the autoregressive neural network in the proposed ensemble wavelet network framework. From a nonlinear time series viewpoint, we explore the asymptotic stationarity of the proposed EWNet model to show the asymptotic behavior of the associated Markov Chain. We also theoretically investigate the effect of learning stability and the choice of hidden neurons in the proposal. From a practical perspective, we compare our proposed EWNet framework with several statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models. Experimental results show that the proposed EWNet is highly competitive compared to the state-of-the-art epidemic forecasting methods.