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 Learning Graphical Models


Constructing Bayesian Pseudo-Coresets using Contrastive Divergence

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Bayesian Pseudo-Coreset (BPC) and Dataset Condensation are two parallel streams of work that construct a synthetic set such that, a model trained independently on this synthetic set, yields the same performance as training on the original training set. While dataset condensation methods use non-bayesian, heuristic ways to construct such a synthetic set, BPC methods take a bayesian approach and formulate the problem as divergence minimization between posteriors associated with original data and synthetic data. However, BPC methods generally rely on distributional assumptions on these posteriors which makes them less flexible and hinders their performance. In this work, we propose to solve these issues by modeling the posterior associated with synthetic data by an energy-based distribution. We derive a contrastive-divergence-like loss function to learn the synthetic set and show a simple and efficient way to estimate this loss. Further, we perform rigorous experiments pertaining to the proposed method. Our experiments on multiple datasets show that the proposed method not only outperforms previous BPC methods but also gives performance comparable to dataset condensation counterparts.


A Unified Framework of Policy Learning for Contextual Bandit with Confounding Bias and Missing Observations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study the offline contextual bandit problem, where we aim to acquire an optimal policy using observational data. However, this data usually contains two deficiencies: (i) some variables that confound actions are not observed, and (ii) missing observations exist in the collected data. Unobserved confounders lead to a confounding bias and missing observations cause bias and inefficiency problems. To overcome these challenges and learn the optimal policy from the observed dataset, we present a new algorithm called Causal-Adjusted Pessimistic (CAP) policy learning, which forms the reward function as the solution of an integral equation system, builds a confidence set, and greedily takes action with pessimism. With mild assumptions on the data, we develop an upper bound to the suboptimality of CAP for the offline contextual bandit problem.


Improved Sample Complexity for Reward-free Reinforcement Learning under Low-rank MDPs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In reward-free reinforcement learning (RL), an agent explores the environment first without any reward information, in order to achieve certain learning goals afterwards for any given reward. In this paper we focus on reward-free RL under low-rank MDP models, in which both the representation and linear weight vectors are unknown. Although various algorithms have been proposed for reward-free low-rank MDPs, the corresponding sample complexity is still far from being satisfactory. In this work, we first provide the first known sample complexity lower bound that holds for any algorithm under low-rank MDPs. This lower bound implies it is strictly harder to find a near-optimal policy under low-rank MDPs than under linear MDPs. We then propose a novel model-based algorithm, coined RAFFLE, and show it can both find an $\epsilon$-optimal policy and achieve an $\epsilon$-accurate system identification via reward-free exploration, with a sample complexity significantly improving the previous results. Such a sample complexity matches our lower bound in the dependence on $\epsilon$, as well as on $K$ in the large $d$ regime, where $d$ and $K$ respectively denote the representation dimension and action space cardinality. Finally, we provide a planning algorithm (without further interaction with true environment) for RAFFLE to learn a near-accurate representation, which is the first known representation learning guarantee under the same setting.


Indeterminate Probability Neural Network

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose a new general model called IPNN - Indeterminate Probability Neural Network, which combines neural network and probability theory together. In the classical probability theory, the calculation of probability is based on the occurrence of events, which is hardly used in current neural networks. In this paper, we propose a new general probability theory, which is an extension of classical probability theory, and makes classical probability theory a special case to our theory. Besides, for our proposed neural network framework, the output of neural network is defined as probability events, and based on the statistical analysis of these events, the inference model for classification task is deduced. IPNN shows new property: It can perform unsupervised clustering while doing classification. Besides, IPNN is capable of making very large classification with very small neural network, e.g. model with 100 output nodes can classify 10 billion categories. Theoretical advantages are reflected in experimental results.


Long-tailed Classification from a Bayesian-decision-theory Perspective

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Long-tailed classification poses a challenge due to its heavy imbalance in class probabilities and tail-sensitivity risks with asymmetric misprediction costs. Recent attempts have used re-balancing loss and ensemble methods, but they are largely heuristic and depend heavily on empirical results, lacking theoretical explanation. Furthermore, existing methods overlook the decision loss, which characterizes different costs associated with tailed classes. This paper presents a general and principled framework from a Bayesian-decision-theory perspective, which unifies existing techniques including re-balancing and ensemble methods, and provides theoretical justifications for their effectiveness. From this perspective, we derive a novel objective based on the integrated risk and a Bayesian deep-ensemble approach to improve the accuracy of all classes, especially the "tail". Besides, our framework allows for task-adaptive decision loss which provides provably optimal decisions in varying task scenarios, along with the capability to quantify uncertainty. Finally, We conduct comprehensive experiments, including standard classification, tail-sensitive classification with a new False Head Rate metric, calibration, and ablation studies. Our framework significantly improves the current SOTA even on large-scale real-world datasets like ImageNet.


Dual-Weight Particle Filter for Radar-Based Dynamic Bayesian Grid Maps

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Through constant improvements in recent years radar sensors have become a viable alternative to lidar as the main distancing sensor of an autonomous vehicle. Although robust and with the possibility to directly measure the radial velocity, it brings it's own set of challenges, for which existing algorithms need to be adapted. One core algorithm of a perception system is dynamic occupancy grid mapping, which has traditionally relied on lidar. In this paper we present a dual-weight particle filter as an extension for a Bayesian occupancy grid mapping framework to allow to operate it with radar as its main sensors. It uses two separate particle weights that are computed differently to compensate that a radial velocity measurement in many situations is not able to capture the actual velocity of an object. We evaluate the method extensively with simulated data and show the advantages over existing single weight solutions.


Deep reinforcement learning for the olfactory search POMDP: a quantitative benchmark

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The olfactory search POMDP (partially observable Markov decision process) is a sequential decision-making problem designed to mimic the task faced by insects searching for a source of odor in turbulence, and its solutions have applications to sniffer robots. As exact solutions are out of reach, the challenge consists in finding the best possible approximate solutions while keeping the computational cost reasonable. We provide a quantitative benchmarking of a solver based on deep reinforcement learning against traditional POMDP approximate solvers. We show that deep reinforcement learning is a competitive alternative to standard methods, in particular to generate lightweight policies suitable for robots.


CLIP4MC: An RL-Friendly Vision-Language Model for Minecraft

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

One of the essential missions in the AI research community is to build an autonomous embodied agent that can attain high-level performance across a wide spectrum of tasks. However, acquiring reward/penalty in all open-ended tasks is unrealistic, making the Reinforcement Learning (RL) training procedure impossible. In this paper, we propose a novel cross-modal contrastive learning framework architecture, CLIP4MC, aiming to learn an RL-friendly vision-language model that serves as a reward function for open-ended tasks. Therefore, no further task-specific reward design is needed. Intuitively, it is more reasonable for the model to address the similarity between the video snippet and the language prompt at both the action and entity levels. To this end, a motion encoder is proposed to capture the motion embeddings across different intervals. The correlation scores are then used to construct the auxiliary reward signal for RL agents. Moreover, we construct a neat YouTube dataset based on the large-scale YouTube database provided by MineDojo. Specifically, two rounds of filtering operations guarantee that the dataset covers enough essential information and that the video-text pair is highly correlated. Empirically, we show that the proposed method achieves better performance on RL tasks compared with baselines.


Calibration of Neural Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Neural networks solving real-world problems are often required not only to make accurate predictions but also to provide a confidence level in the forecast. The calibration of a model indicates how close the estimated confidence is to the true probability. This paper presents a survey of confidence calibration problems in the context of neural networks and provides an empirical comparison of calibration methods. We analyze problem statement, calibration definitions, and different approaches to evaluation: visualizations and scalar measures that estimate whether the model is well-calibrated. We review modern calibration techniques: based on post-processing or requiring changes in training. Empirical experiments cover various datasets and models, comparing calibration methods according to different criteria.


Going faster to see further: GPU-accelerated value iteration and simulation for perishable inventory control using JAX

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Value iteration can find the optimal replenishment policy for a perishable inventory problem, but is computationally demanding due to the large state spaces that are required to represent the age profile of stock. The parallel processing capabilities of modern GPUs can reduce the wall time required to run value iteration by updating many states simultaneously. The adoption of GPU-accelerated approaches has been limited in operational research relative to other fields like machine learning, in which new software frameworks have made GPU programming widely accessible. We used the Python library JAX to implement value iteration and simulators of the underlying Markov decision processes in a high-level API, and relied on this library's function transformations and compiler to efficiently utilize GPU hardware. Our method can extend use of value iteration to settings that were previously considered infeasible or impractical. We demonstrate this on example scenarios from three recent studies which include problems with over 16 million states and additional problem features, such as substitution between products, that increase computational complexity. We compare the performance of the optimal replenishment policies to heuristic policies, fitted using simulation optimization in JAX which allowed the parallel evaluation of multiple candidate policy parameters on thousands of simulated years. The heuristic policies gave a maximum optimality gap of 2.49%. Our general approach may be applicable to a wide range of problems in operational research that would benefit from large-scale parallel computation on consumer-grade GPU hardware.