Parametric policy search algorithms are one of the methods of choice for the optimisation of Markov Decision Processes, with Expectation Maximisation and natural gradient ascent being considered the current state of the art in the field. In this article we provide a unifying perspective of these two algorithms by showing that their step-directions in the parameter space are closely related to the search direction of an approximate Newton method. This analysis leads naturally to the consideration of this approximate Newton method as an alternative gradient-based method for Markov Decision Processes. We are able show that the algorithm has numerous desirable properties, absent in the naive application of Newton's method, that make it a viable alternative to either Expectation Maximisation or natural gradient ascent. Empirical results suggest that the algorithm has excellent convergence and robustness properties, performing strongly in comparison to both Expectation Maximisation and natural gradient ascent.

We consider the problem of learning control policies via trajectory preference queries to an expert. In particular, the learning agent can present an expert with short runs of a pair of policies originating from the same state and the expert then indicates the preferred trajectory. The agent's goal is to elicit a latent target policy from the expert with as few queries as possible. To tackle this problem we propose a novel Bayesian model of the querying process and introduce two methods that exploit this model to actively select expert queries. Experimental results on four benchmark problems indicate that our model can effectively learn policies from trajectory preference queries and that active query selection can be substantially more efficient than random selection.

We consider the problem of estimating Shannon's entropy H in the under-sampled regime, where the number of possible symbols may be unknown or countably infinite. Pitman-Yor processes (a generalization of Dirichlet processes) provide tractable prior distributions over the space of countably infinite discrete distributions, and have found major applications in Bayesian non-parametric statistics and machine learning. Here we show that they also provide natural priors for Bayesian entropy estimation, due to the remarkable fact that the moments of the induced posterior distribution over H can be computed analytically. We derive formulas for the posterior mean (Bayes' least squares estimate) and variance under such priors. Moreover, we show that a fixed Dirichlet or Pitman-Yor process prior implies a narrow prior on H, meaning the prior strongly determines the entropy estimate in the under-sampled regime.

We present a truncation-free online variational inference algorithm for Bayesian nonparametric models. Unlike traditional (online) variational inference algorithms that require truncations for the model or the variational distribution, our method adapts model complexity on the fly. Our experiments for Dirichlet process mixture models and hierarchical Dirichlet process topic models on two large-scale data sets show better performance than previous online variational inference algorithms.

We introduce a new objective function for pool-based Bayesian active learning with probabilistic hypotheses. This objective function, called the policy Gibbs error, is the expected error rate of a random classifier drawn from the prior distribution on the examples adaptively selected by the active learning policy. Exact maximization of the policy Gibbs error is hard, so we propose a greedy strategy that maximizes the Gibbs error at each iteration, where the Gibbs error on an instance is the expected error of a random classifier selected from the posterior label distribution on that instance. We apply this maximum Gibbs error criterion to three active learning scenarios: non-adaptive, adaptive, and batch active learning. In each scenario, we prove that the criterion achieves near-maximal policy Gibbs error when constrained to a fixed budget.

For spiking neurons, the entropy rate places an upper bound on the rate at which the spike train can convey stimulus information, and a large literature has focused on the problem of estimating entropy rate from spike train data. Our estimator leverages the fact that the entropy rate of an ergodic Markov Chain with known transition probabilities can be calculated analytically, and many stochastic processes that are non-Markovian can still be well approximated by Markov processes of sufficient depth. Choosing an appropriate depth of Markov model presents challenges due to possibly long time dependencies and short data sequences: a deeper model can better account for long time-dependencies, but is more difficult to infer from limited data. Our approach mitigates this difficulty by using a hierarchical prior to share statistical power across Markov chains of different depths. We present both a fully Bayesian and empirical Bayes entropy rate estimator based on this model, and demonstrate their performance on simulated and real neural spike train data.

Learning dynamic models from observed data has been a central issue in many scientific studies or engineering tasks. The usual setting is that data are collected sequentially from trajectories of some dynamical system operation. In quite a few modern scientific modeling tasks, however, it turns out that reliable sequential data are rather difficult to gather, whereas out-of-order snapshots are much easier to obtain. Examples include the modeling of galaxies, chronic diseases such Alzheimer's, or certain biological processes. Existing methods for learning dynamic model from non-sequence data are mostly based on Expectation-Maximization, which involves non-convex optimization and is thus hard to analyze.

This paper presents four major results towards solving decentralized partially observable Markov decision problems (DecPOMDPs) culminating in an algorithm that outperforms all existing algorithms on all but one standard infinite-horizon benchmark problems. The program is notable because its linear relaxation is very often integral. These actions correspond to strategies of a CBG. We choose one such algorithm, point-based valued iteration, and modify it to produce the first tractable value iteration method for DecPOMDPs which outperforms existing algorithms.

Sampling inference methods are computationally difficult to scale for many models in part because global dependencies can reduce opportunities for parallel computation. Without strict conditional independence structure among variables, standard Gibbs sampling theory requires sample updates to be performed sequentially, even if dependence between most variables is not strong. Empirical work has shown that some models can be sampled effectively by going Hogwild'' and simply running Gibbs updates in parallel with only periodic global communication, but the successes and limitations of such a strategy are not well understood. As a step towards such an understanding, we study the Hogwild Gibbs sampling strategy in the context of Gaussian distributions. We develop a framework which provides convergence conditions and error bounds along with simple proofs and connections to methods in numerical linear algebra.

EDML is a recently proposed algorithm for learning parameters in Bayesian networks. It was originally derived in terms of approximate inference on a meta-network, which underlies the Bayesian approach to parameter estimation. While this initial derivation helped discover EDML in the first place and provided a concrete context for identifying some of its properties (e.g., in contrast to EM), the formal setting was somewhat tedious in the number of concepts it drew on. In this paper, we propose a greatly simplified perspective on EDML, which casts it as a general approach to continuous optimization. The new perspective has several advantages.