The ill-posed nature of the MEG/EEG source localization problem requires the incorporation of prior assumptions when choosing an appropriate solution out of an infinite set of candidates. Bayesian methods are useful in this capacity because they allow these assumptions to be explicitly quantified. Recently, a number of empirical Bayesian approaches have been proposed that attempt a form of model selection by using the data to guide the search for an appropriate prior. While seemingly quite different in many respects, we apply a unifying framework based on automatic relevance determination (ARD) that elucidates various attributes of these methods and suggests directions for improvement. We also derive theoretical properties of this methodology related to convergence, local minima, and localization bias and explore connections with established algorithms.

Structural equation models can be seen as an extension of Gaussian belief net- works to cyclic graphs, and we show they can be understood generatively as the model for the joint distribution of long term average equilibrium activity of Gaus- sian dynamic belief networks. Most use of structural equation models in fMRI involves postulating a particular structure and comparing learnt parameters across different groups. In this paper it is argued that there are situations where priors about structure are not firm or exhaustive, and given sufficient data, it is worth investigating learning network structure as part of the approach to connectivity analysis. First we demonstrate structure learning on a toy problem. We then show that for particular fMRI data the simple models usually assumed are not supported.

Starting with the work of Jaakkola and Haussler, a variety of approaches have been proposed for coupling domain-specific generative models with statistical learning methods. The link is established by a kernel function which provides a similarity measure based inherently on the underlying model. In computational biology, the full promise of this framework has rarely ever been exploited, as most kernels are derived from very generic models, such as sequence profiles or hidden Markov models. Here, we introduce the MTreeMix kernel, which is based on a generative model tailored to the underlying biological mechanism. We compare this novel kernel to a standard, evolution-agnostic amino acid encoding in the prediction of HIV drug resistance from genotype, using support vector regression.

We rigorously establish a close relationship between message passing algorithms and models of neurodynamics by showing that the equations of a continuous Hop- (cid:2)eld network can be derived from the equations of belief propagation on a binary Markov random (cid:2)eld. As Hop(cid:2)eld networks are equipped with a Lyapunov func- tion, convergence is guaranteed. As a consequence, in the limit of many weak con- nections per neuron, Hop(cid:2)eld networks exactly implement a continuous-time vari- ant of belief propagation starting from message initialisations that prevent from running into convergence problems. Our results lead to a better understanding of the role of message passing algorithms in real biological neural networks.

Bayesian inference has become increasingly important in statistical machine learning. Exact Bayesian calculations are often not feasible in practice, however. A number of approximate Bayesian methods have been proposed to make such calculations practical, among them the variational Bayesian (VB) approach. The VB approach, while useful, can nevertheless suffer from slow convergence to the approximate solution. To address this problem, we propose Parameter-eXpanded Variational Bayesian (PX-VB) methods to speed up VB.

Data sets that characterize human activity over time through collections of timestamped events or counts are of increasing interest in application areas as humancomputer interaction, video surveillance, and Web data analysis. We propose a non-parametric Bayesian framework for modeling collections of such data. In particular, we use a Dirichlet process framework for learning a set of intensity functions corresponding to different categories, which form a basis set for representing individual time-periods (e.g., several days) depending on which categories the time-periods are assigned to. This allows the model to learn in a data-driven fashion what "factors" are generating the observations on a particular day, including (for example) weekday versus weekend effects or day-specific effects corresponding to unique (single-day) occurrences of unusual behavior, sharing information where appropriate to obtain improved estimates of the behavior associated with each category. Applications to realworld data sets of count data involving both vehicles and people are used to illustrate the technique.

Human listeners have the extraordinary ability to hear and recognize speech even when more than one person is talking. Their machine counterparts have historically been unable to compete with this ability, until now. We present a modelbased system that performs on par with humans in the task of separating speech of two talkers from a single-channel recording. The models of speech use temporal dynamics to help infer the source speech signals, given mixed speech signals. The estimated source signals are then recognized using a conventional speech recognition system.

Computational gene prediction using generative models has reached a plateau, with several groups converging to a generalized hidden Markov model (GHMM) incorporating phylogenetic models of nucleotide sequence evolution. Further improvements in gene calling accuracy are likely to come through new methods that incorporate additional data, both comparative and species specific. Conditional Random Fields (CRFs), which directly model the conditional probability P (y x) of a vector of hidden states conditioned on a set of observations, provide a unified framework for combining probabilistic and non-probabilistic information and have been shown to outperform HMMs on sequence labeling tasks in natural language processing. We describe the use of CRFs for comparative gene prediction. We implement a model that encapsulates both a phylogenetic-GHMM (our baseline comparative model) and additional non-probabilistic features.

This paper introduces adaptor grammars, a class of probabilistic models of lan- guage that generalize probabilistic context-free grammars (PCFGs). Adaptor grammars augment the probabilistic rules of PCFGs with "adaptors" that can in- duce dependencies among successive uses. With a particular choice of adaptor, based on the Pitman-Yor process, nonparametric Bayesian models of language using Dirichlet processes and hierarchical Dirichlet processes can be written as simple grammars. We present a general-purpose inference algorithm for adaptor grammars, making it easy to define and use such models, and illustrate how several existing nonparametric Bayesian models can be expressed within this framework.

Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) is a Bayesian network that has recently gained much popularity in applications ranging from document modeling to computer vision. Due to the large scale nature of these applications, current inference pro- cedures like variational Bayes and Gibbs sampling have been found lacking. In this paper we propose the collapsed variational Bayesian inference algorithm for LDA, and show that it is computationally efficient, easy to implement and signifi- cantly more accurate than standard variational Bayesian inference for LDA.