We describe an approach to building brain-computer interfaces (BCI) based on graphical models for probabilistic inference and learning. We show how a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) can be used to infer probability distributions over brain- and body-states during planning and execution of actions. The DBN is learned directly from observed data and allows measured signals such as EEG and EMG to be interpreted in terms of internal states such as intent to move, preparatory activity, and movement execution. Unlike traditional classification-based approaches to BCI, the proposed approach (1) allows continuous tracking and predic- tion of internal states over time, and (2) generates control signals based on an entire probability distribution over states rather than binary yes/no decisions. We present preliminary results of brain- and body-state es- timation using simultaneous EEG and EMG signals recorded during a self-paced left/right hand movement task.

We propose a new interpretation of spiking neurons as Bayesian integra- tors accumulating evidence over time about events in the external world or the body, and communicating to other neurons their certainties about these events. In this model, spikes signal the occurrence of new infor- mation, i.e. what cannot be predicted from the past activity. As a result, firing statistics are close to Poisson, albeit providing a deterministic rep- resentation of probabilities. We proceed to develop a theory of Bayesian inference in spiking neural networks, recurrent interactions implement- ing a variant of belief propagation. Many perceptual and motor tasks performed by the central nervous system are probabilis- tic, and can be described in a Bayesian framework [4, 3].

We describe how we used a data set of chorale harmonisations composed by Johann Sebastian Bach to train Hidden Markov Models. Using a prob- abilistic framework allows us to create a harmonisation system which learns from examples, and which can compose new harmonisations. We make a quantitative comparison of our system's harmonisation perfor- mance against simpler models, and provide example harmonisations.

Spike sorting involves clustering spike trains recorded by a micro- electrode according to the source neuron. It is a complicated problem, which requires a lot of human labor, partly due to the non-stationary na- ture of the data. We propose an automated technique for the clustering of non-stationary Gaussian sources in a Bayesian framework. At a first search stage, data is divided into short time frames and candidate descrip- tions of the data as a mixture of Gaussians are computed for each frame. At a second stage transition probabilities between candidate mixtures are computed, and a globally optimal clustering is found as the MAP so- lution of the resulting probabilistic model. Transition probabilities are computed using local stationarity assumptions and are based on a Gaus- sian version of the Jensen-Shannon divergence.

Two players, Black and White, take turns to place stones on the intersections of an N N grid (usually N 19 but smaller boards are in use as well). All the stones of each player are identical. Players place their stones in order to create territory by occupying or surrounding areas of the board. The player with the most territory at the end of the game is the winner. A stone is captured if it has been completely surrounded (in the horizontal and vertical directions) by stones of the opponent's colour.

As animals interact with their environments, they must constantly update estimates about their states. Bayesian models combine prior probabil- ities, a dynamical model and sensory evidence to update estimates op- timally. These models are consistent with the results of many diverse psychophysical studies. However, little is known about the neural rep- resentation and manipulation of such Bayesian information, particularly in populations of spiking neurons. We consider this issue, suggesting a model based on standard neural architecture and activations.

Many sequential prediction tasks involve locating instances of pat- terns in sequences. Generative probabilistic language models, such as hidden Markov models (HMMs), have been successfully applied to many of these tasks. A limitation of these models however, is that they cannot naturally handle cases in which pattern instances overlap in arbitrary ways. We present an alternative approach, based on conditional Markov networks, that can naturally repre- sent arbitrarily overlapping elements. We show how to efficiently train and perform inference with these models.

This paper analyzes generalization of the classic Rescorla-Wagner (R- W) learning algorithm and studies their relationship to Maximum Like- lihood estimation of causal parameters. We prove that the parameters of two popular causal models, P and P C, can be learnt by the same generalized linear Rescorla-Wagner (GLRW) algorithm provided gener- icity conditions apply. We characterize the fixed points of these GLRW algorithms and calculate the fluctuations about them, assuming that the input is a set of i.i.d. We describe how to determine convergence conditions and calculate conver- gence rates for the GLRW algorithms under these conditions.

It has been demonstrated that basic aspects of human visual motion per- ception are qualitatively consistent with a Bayesian estimation frame- work, where the prior probability distribution on velocity favors slow speeds. Here, we present a refined probabilistic model that can account for the typical trial-to-trial variabilities observed in psychophysical speed perception experiments. We also show that data from such experiments can be used to constrain both the likelihood and prior functions of the model. Specifically, we measured matching speeds and thresholds in a two-alternative forced choice speed discrimination task. Parametric fits to the data reveal that the likelihood function is well approximated by a LogNormal distribution with a characteristic contrast-dependent vari- ance, and that the prior distribution on velocity exhibits significantly heavier tails than a Gaussian, and approximately follows a power-law function.

Existing algorithms for discrete partially observable Markov decision processes can at best solve problems of a few thousand states due to two important sources of intractability: the curse of dimensionality and the policy space complexity. This paper describes a new algorithm (VDCBPI) that mitigates both sources of intractability by combining the Value Directed Compression (VDC) technique [13] with Bounded Pol- icy Iteration (BPI) [14]. The scalability of VDCBPI is demonstrated on synthetic network management problems with up to 33 million states. Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide a natural and expres- sive framework for decision making, but their use in practice has been limited by the lack of scalable solution algorithms. Two important sources of intractability plague discrete model-based POMDPs: high dimensionality of belief space, and the complexity of policy or value function (VF) space.