A central quest in explainable AI relates to understanding the decisions made by (learned) classifiers. There are three dimensions of this understanding that have been receiving significant attention in recent years. The first dimension relates to characterizing conditions on instances that are necessary and sufficient for decisions, therefore providing abstractions of instances that can be viewed as the "reasons behind decisions." The next dimension relates to characterizing minimal conditions that are sufficient for a decision, therefore identifying maximal aspects of the instance that are irrelevant to the decision. The last dimension relates to characterizing minimal conditions that are necessary for a decision, therefore identifying minimal perturbations to the instance that yield alternate decisions. We discuss in this tutorial a comprehensive, semantical and computational theory of explainability along these dimensions which is based on some recent developments in symbolic logic. The tutorial will also discuss how this theory is particularly applicable to non-symbolic classifiers such as those based on Bayesian networks, decision trees, random forests and some types of neural networks.

We consider off-policy evaluation of dynamic treatment rules under sequential ignorability, given an assumption that the underlying system can be modeled as a partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP). We propose an estimator, partial history importance weighting, and show that it can consistently estimate the stationary mean rewards of a target policy given long enough draws from the behavior policy. We provide an upper bound on its error that decays polynomially in the number of observations (i.e., the number of trajectories times their length), with an exponent that depends on the overlap of the target and behavior policies, and on the mixing time of the underlying system. Furthermore, we show that this rate of convergence is minimax given only our assumptions on mixing and overlap. Our results establish that off-policy evaluation in POMDPs is strictly harder than off-policy evaluation in (fully observed) Markov decision processes, but strictly easier than model-free off-policy evaluation.

Probability predictions are essential to inform decision making in medicine, economics, image classification, sports analytics, entertainment, and many other fields. Ideally, probability predictions are (i) well calibrated, (ii) accurate, and (iii) bold, i.e., far from the base rate of the event. Predictions that satisfy these three criteria are informative for decision making. However, there is a fundamental tension between calibration and boldness, since calibration metrics can be high when predictions are overly cautious, i.e., non-bold. The purpose of this work is to develop a hypothesis test and Bayesian model selection approach to assess calibration, and a strategy for boldness-recalibration that enables practitioners to responsibly embolden predictions subject to their required level of calibration. Specifically, we allow the user to pre-specify their desired posterior probability of calibration, then maximally embolden predictions subject to this constraint. We verify the performance of our procedures via simulation, then demonstrate the breadth of applicability by applying these methods to real world case studies in each of the fields mentioned above. We find that very slight relaxation of calibration probability (e.g., from 0.99 to 0.95) can often substantially embolden predictions (e.g., widening Hockey predictions' range from .25-.75 to .10-.90)

Much discussion about large language models and language-and-vision models has focused on whether these models are intelligent agents. We present an alternative perspective. We argue that these artificial intelligence models are cultural technologies that enhance cultural transmission in the modern world, and are efficient imitation engines. We explore what AI models can tell us about imitation and innovation by evaluating their capacity to design new tools and discover novel causal structures, and contrast their responses with those of human children. Our work serves as a first step in determining which particular representations and competences, as well as which kinds of knowledge or skill, can be derived from particular learning techniques and data. Critically, our findings suggest that machines may need more than large scale language and images to achieve what a child can do.

Communication can promote coordination in cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL). Nowadays, existing works mainly focus on improving the communication efficiency of agents, neglecting that real-world communication is much more challenging as there may exist noise or potential attackers. Thus the robustness of the communication-based policies becomes an emergent and severe issue that needs more exploration. In this paper, we posit that the ego system trained with auxiliary adversaries may handle this limitation and propose an adaptable method of Multi-Agent Auxiliary Adversaries Generation for robust Communication, dubbed MA3C, to obtain a robust communication-based policy. In specific, we introduce a novel message-attacking approach that models the learning of the auxiliary attacker as a cooperative problem under a shared goal to minimize the coordination ability of the ego system, with which every information channel may suffer from distinct message attacks. Furthermore, as naive adversarial training may impede the generalization ability of the ego system, we design an attacker population generation approach based on evolutionary learning. Finally, the ego system is paired with an attacker population and then alternatively trained against the continuously evolving attackers to improve its robustness, meaning that both the ego system and the attackers are adaptable. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmarks indicate that our proposed MA3C provides comparable or better robustness and generalization ability than other baselines.

The signature kernel is a positive definite kernel for sequential data. It inherits theoretical guarantees from stochastic analysis, has efficient algorithms for computation, and shows strong empirical performance. In this short survey paper for a forthcoming Springer handbook, we give an elementary introduction to the signature kernel and highlight these theoretical and computational properties.

We study the causal bandit problem that entails identifying a near-optimal intervention from a specified set $A$ of (possibly non-atomic) interventions over a given causal graph. Here, an optimal intervention in ${A}$ is one that maximizes the expected value for a designated reward variable in the graph, and we use the standard notion of simple regret to quantify near optimality. Considering Bernoulli random variables and for causal graphs on $N$ vertices with constant in-degree, prior work has achieved a worst case guarantee of $\widetilde{O} (N/\sqrt{T})$ for simple regret. The current work utilizes the idea of covering interventions (which are not necessarily contained within ${A}$) and establishes a simple regret guarantee of $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{N/T})$. Notably, and in contrast to prior work, our simple regret bound depends only on explicit parameters of the problem instance. We also go beyond prior work and achieve a simple regret guarantee for causal graphs with unobserved variables. Further, we perform experiments to show improvements over baselines in this setting.

Human-robot collaboration (HRC) has become increasingly relevant in industrial, household, and commercial settings. However, the effectiveness of such collaborations is highly dependent on the human and robots' situational awareness of the environment. Improving this awareness includes not only aligning perceptions in a shared workspace, but also bidirectionally communicating intent and visualizing different states of the environment to enhance scene understanding. In this paper, we propose ARDIE (Augmented Reality with Dialogue and Eye Gaze), a novel intelligent agent that leverages multi-modal feedback cues to enhance HRC. Our system utilizes a decision theoretic framework to formulate a joint policy that incorporates interactive augmented reality (AR), natural language, and eye gaze to portray current and future states of the environment. Through object-specific AR renders, the human can visualize future object interactions to make adjustments as needed, ultimately providing an interactive and efficient collaboration between humans and robots.

We propose a novel hierarchical Bayesian approach to Federated Learning (FL), where our model reasonably describes the generative process of clients' local data via hierarchical Bayesian modeling: constituting random variables of local models for clients that are governed by a higher-level global variate. Interestingly, the variational inference in our Bayesian model leads to an optimisation problem whose block-coordinate descent solution becomes a distributed algorithm that is separable over clients and allows them not to reveal their own private data at all, thus fully compatible with FL. We also highlight that our block-coordinate algorithm has particular forms that subsume the well-known FL algorithms including Fed-Avg and Fed-Prox as special cases. Beyond introducing novel modeling and derivations, we also offer convergence analysis showing that our block-coordinate FL algorithm converges to an (local) optimum of the objective at the rate of $O(1/\sqrt{t})$, the same rate as regular (centralised) SGD, as well as the generalisation error analysis where we prove that the test error of our model on unseen data is guaranteed to vanish as we increase the training data size, thus asymptotically optimal.

Model independent techniques for constructing background data templates using generative models have shown great promise for use in searches for new physics processes at the LHC. We introduce a major improvement to the CURTAINs method by training the conditional normalizing flow between two side-band regions using maximum likelihood estimation instead of an optimal transport loss. The new training objective improves the robustness and fidelity of the transformed data and is much faster and easier to train. We compare the performance against the previous approach and the current state of the art using the LHC Olympics anomaly detection dataset, where we see a significant improvement in sensitivity over the original CURTAINs method. Furthermore, CURTAINsF4F requires substantially less computational resources to cover a large number of signal regions than other fully data driven approaches. When using an efficient configuration, an order of magnitude more models can be trained in the same time required for ten signal regions, without a significant drop in performance.