Combining predictions from different models is a central problem in Bayesian inference and machine learning more broadly. Currently, these predictive distributions are almost exclusively combined using linear mixtures such as Bayesian model averaging, Bayesian stacking, and mixture of experts. Such linear mixtures impose idiosyncrasies that might be undesirable for some applications, such as multi-modality. While there exist alternative strategies (e.g. geometric bridge or superposition), optimising their parameters usually involves computing an intractable normalising constant repeatedly. We present two novel Bayesian model combination tools. These are generalisations of model stacking, but combine posterior densities by log-linear pooling (locking) and quantum superposition (quacking). To optimise model weights while avoiding the burden of normalising constants, we investigate the Hyvarinen score of the combined posterior predictions. We demonstrate locking with an illustrative example and discuss its practical application with importance sampling.

Originally introduced as a neural network for ensemble learning, mixture of experts (MoE) has recently become a fundamental building block of highly successful modern deep neural networks for heterogeneous data analysis in several applications, including those in machine learning, statistics, bioinformatics, economics, and medicine. Despite its popularity in practice, a satisfactory level of understanding of the convergence behavior of Gaussian-gated MoE parameter estimation is far from complete. The underlying reason for this challenge is the inclusion of covariates in the Gaussian gating and expert networks, which leads to their intrinsically complex interactions via partial differential equations with respect to their parameters. We address these issues by designing novel Voronoi loss functions to accurately capture heterogeneity in the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for resolving parameter estimation in these models. Our results reveal distinct behaviors of the MLE under two settings: the first setting is when all the location parameters in the Gaussian gating are non-zeros while the second setting is when there exists at least one zero-valued location parameter. Notably, these behaviors can be characterized by the solvability of two different systems of polynomial equations. Finally, we conduct a simulation study to verify our theoretical results.

Modern statistical learning algorithms are capable of amazing flexibility, but struggle with interpretability. One possible solution is sparsity: making inference such that many of the parameters are estimated as being identically 0, which may be imposed through the use of nonsmooth penalties such as the $\ell_1$ penalty. However, the $\ell_1$ penalty introduces significant bias when high sparsity is desired. In this article, we retain the $\ell_1$ penalty, but define learnable penalty weights $\lambda_p$ endowed with hyperpriors. We start the article by investigating the optimization problem this poses, developing a proximal operator associated with the $\ell_1$ norm. We then study the theoretical properties of this variable-coefficient $\ell_1$ penalty in the context of penalized likelihood. Next, we investigate application of this penalty to Variational Bayes, developing a model we call the Sparse Bayesian Lasso which allows for behavior qualitatively like Lasso regression to be applied to arbitrary variational models. In simulation studies, this gives us the Uncertainty Quantification and low bias properties of simulation-based approaches with an order of magnitude less computation. Finally, we apply our methodology to a Bayesian lagged spatiotemporal regression model of internal displacement that occurred during the Iraqi Civil War of 2013-2017.

In robotics, simulation has the potential to reduce design time and costs, and lead to a more robust engineered solution and a safer development process. However, the use of simulators is predicated on the availability of good models. This contribution is concerned with improving the quality of these models via calibration, which is cast herein in a Bayesian framework. First, we discuss the Bayesian machinery involved in model calibration. Then, we demonstrate it in one example: calibration of a vehicle dynamics model that has low degree of freedom count and can be used for state estimation, model predictive control, or path planning. A high fidelity simulator is used to emulate the ``experiments'' and generate the data for the calibration. The merit of this work is not tied to a new Bayesian methodology for calibration, but to the demonstration of how the Bayesian machinery can establish connections among models in computational dynamics, even when the data in use is noisy. The software used to generate the results reported herein is available in a public repository for unfettered use and distribution.

To avoid any terminological doubt, when we write "models of the language", we refer to any models that explain some linguistic phenomena, while "language models" refer to probabilistic language models as defined in Subsection 2.3 Probabilistic Language Models. While not long ago probabilistic language models were just models that assign probabilities to sequences of words [4], now they are the cornerstone of any task in computational linguistics through few-shot learning [6], prompt engineering [38] or fine-tuning [13]. On the other hand, current language models fail to catch long-range dependencies in the text consistently. For example, text generation with maximum likelihood target leads to rapid text degeneration, and consistent text generation requires probabilistic sampling and other tricks [22]. Large language models such as GPT-3 [6] push the boundary of "short text" rather far (specifically, to 2048 tokens), but do not remove the problem. Our contributions in this work are the following: We explain how the laws of autocorrelations decay in texts are related to applicability of language models to long texts; We pioneer the use of pretrained word vectors for autocorrelation computations that allows us to study a widest range of autocorrelation distances; We show that the autocorrelations in literary texts decay according to power laws for all these distances; We show that distributional semantics typically provides coherent autocorrelations decay exponents for texts translated to multiple languages, unlike earlier flawed approaches; We show that the behavior of autocorrelations decay in generated texts is quantitatively and often qualitatively different from the literary texts.

Effective communication is crucial for deploying robots in mission-specific tasks, but inadequate or unreliable communication can greatly reduce mission efficacy, for example in search and rescue missions where communication-denied conditions may occur. In such missions, robots are deployed to locate targets, such as human survivors, but they might get trapped at hazardous locations, such as in a trapping pit or by debris. Thus, the information the robot collected is lost owing to the lack of communication. In our prior work, we developed the notion of a path-based sensor. A path-based sensor detects whether or not an event has occurred along a particular path, but it does not provide the exact location of the event. Such path-based sensor observations are well-suited to communication-denied environments, and various studies have explored methods to improve information gathering in such settings. In some missions it is typical for target elements to be in close proximity to hazardous factors that hinder the information-gathering process. In this study, we examine a similar scenario and conduct experiments to determine if additional knowledge about the correlation between hazards and targets improves the efficiency of information gathering. To incorporate this knowledge, we utilize a Bayesian network representation of domain knowledge and develop an algorithm based on this representation. Our empirical investigation reveals that such additional information on correlation is beneficial only in environments with moderate hazard lethality, suggesting that while knowledge of correlation helps, further research and development is necessary for optimal outcomes.

If $X,Y,Z$ denote sets of random variables, two different data sources may contain samples from $P_{X,Y}$ and $P_{Y,Z}$, respectively. We argue that causal discovery can help inferring properties of the `unobserved joint distributions' $P_{X,Y,Z}$ or $P_{X,Z}$. The properties may be conditional independences (as in `integrative causal inference') or also quantitative statements about dependences. More generally, we define a learning scenario where the input is a subset of variables and the label is some statistical property of that subset. Sets of jointly observed variables define the training points, while unobserved sets are possible test points. To solve this learning task, we infer, as an intermediate step, a causal model from the observations that then entails properties of unobserved sets. Accordingly, we can define the VC dimension of a class of causal models and derive generalization bounds for the predictions. Here, causal discovery becomes more modest and better accessible to empirical tests than usual: rather than trying to find a causal hypothesis that is `true' a causal hypothesis is {\it useful} whenever it correctly predicts statistical properties of unobserved joint distributions. This way, a sparse causal graph that omits weak influences may be more useful than a dense one (despite being less accurate) because it is able to reconstruct the full joint distribution from marginal distributions of smaller subsets. Within such a `pragmatic' application of causal discovery, some popular heuristic approaches become justified in retrospect. It is, for instance, allowed to infer DAGs from partial correlations instead of conditional independences if the DAGs are only used to predict partial correlations.

Denoising diffusions are state-of-the-art generative models exhibiting remarkable empirical performance. They work by diffusing the data distribution into a Gaussian distribution and then learning to reverse this noising process to obtain synthetic datapoints. The denoising diffusion relies on approximations of the logarithmic derivatives of the noised data densities using score matching. Such models can also be used to perform approximate posterior simulation when one can only sample from the prior and likelihood. We propose a unifying framework generalising this approach to a wide class of spaces and leading to an original extension of score matching. We illustrate the resulting models on various applications.

Generative neural networks can produce data samples according to the statistical properties of their training distribution. This feature can be used to test modern computational neuroscience hypotheses suggesting that spontaneous brain activity is partially supported by top-down generative processing. A widely studied class of generative models is that of Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs), which can be used as building blocks for unsupervised deep learning architectures. In this work, we systematically explore the generative dynamics of RBMs, characterizing the number of states visited during top-down sampling and investigating whether the heterogeneity of visited attractors could be increased by starting the generation process from biased hidden states. By considering an RBM trained on a classic dataset of handwritten digits, we show that the capacity to produce diverse data prototypes can be increased by initiating top-down sampling from chimera states, which encode high-level visual features of multiple digits. We also found that the model is not capable of transitioning between all possible digit states within a single generation trajectory, suggesting that the top-down dynamics is heavily constrained by the shape of the energy function.

Hyperparameter optimization (HPO) is a powerful technique for automating the tuning of machine learning (ML) models. However, in many real-world applications, accuracy is only one of multiple performance criteria that must be considered. Optimizing these objectives simultaneously on a complex and diverse search space remains a challenging task. In this paper, we propose MO-DEHB, an effective and flexible multi-objective (MO) optimizer that extends the recent evolutionary Hyperband method DEHB. We validate the performance of MO-DEHB using a comprehensive suite of 15 benchmarks consisting of diverse and challenging MO problems, including HPO, neural architecture search (NAS), and joint NAS and HPO, with objectives including accuracy, latency and algorithmic fairness. A comparative study against state-of-the-art MO optimizers demonstrates that MO-DEHB clearly achieves the best performance across our 15 benchmarks.