In an offline reinforcement learning setting, the safe policy improvement (SPI) problem aims to improve the performance of a behavior policy according to which sample data has been generated. State-of-the-art approaches to SPI require a high number of samples to provide practical probabilistic guarantees on the improved policy's performance. We present a novel approach to the SPI problem that provides the means to require less data for such guarantees. Specifically, to prove the correctness of these guarantees, we devise implicit transformations on the data set and the underlying environment model that serve as theoretical foundations to derive tighter improvement bounds for SPI. Our empirical evaluation, using the well-established SPI with baseline bootstrapping (SPIBB) algorithm, on standard benchmarks shows that our method indeed significantly reduces the sample complexity of the SPIBB algorithm.

We study parameterized MDPs (PMDPs) in which the key parameters of interest are unknown and must be learned using Bayesian inference. One key defining feature of such models is the presence of "uninformative" actions that provide no information about the unknown parameters. We contribute a set of assumptions for PMDPs under which Thompson sampling guarantees an asymptotically optimal expected regret bound of $O(T^{-1})$, which are easily verified for many classes of problems such as queuing, inventory control, and dynamic pricing.

The advances in Machine Learning (ML) in recent years have been both impressive and far-reaching. However, the deployment of ML models is still impaired by a lack of trust in how the best-performing ML models make predictions. The issue of lack of trust is even more acute in the uses of ML models in high-risk or safety-critical domains. eXplainable artificial intelligence (XAI) is at the core of ongoing efforts for delivering trustworthy AI. Unfortunately, XAI is riddled with critical misconceptions, that foster distrust instead of building trust. This paper details some of the most visible misconceptions in XAI, and shows how formal methods have been used, both to disprove those misconceptions, but also to devise practically effective alternatives.

In this review, we explore the historical development and future prospects of artificial intelligence (AI) and deep learning in astronomy. We trace the evolution of connectionism in astronomy through its three waves, from the early use of multilayer perceptrons, to the rise of convolutional and recurrent neural networks, and finally to the current era of unsupervised and generative deep learning methods. With the exponential growth of astronomical data, deep learning techniques offer an unprecedented opportunity to uncover valuable insights and tackle previously intractable problems. As we enter the anticipated fourth wave of astronomical connectionism, we argue for the adoption of GPT-like foundation models fine-tuned for astronomical applications. Such models could harness the wealth of high-quality, multimodal astronomical data to serve state-of-the-art downstream tasks. To keep pace with advancements driven by Big Tech, we propose a collaborative, open-source approach within the astronomy community to develop and maintain these foundation models, fostering a symbiotic relationship between AI and astronomy that capitalizes on the unique strengths of both fields.

We investigate the problem of wireless routing in integrated access backhaul (IAB) networks consisting of fiber-connected and wireless base stations and multiple users. The physical constraints of these networks prevent the use of a central controller, and base stations have limited access to real-time network conditions. We aim to maximize packet arrival ratio while minimizing their latency, for this purpose, we formulate the problem as a multi-agent partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP). To solve this problem, we develop a Relational Advantage Actor Critic (Relational A2C) algorithm that uses Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) and information about similar destinations to derive a joint routing policy on a distributed basis. We present three training paradigms for this algorithm and demonstrate its ability to achieve near-centralized performance. Our results show that Relational A2C outperforms other reinforcement learning algorithms, leading to increased network efficiency and reduced selfish agent behavior. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first to optimize routing strategy for IAB networks.

Deep learning models, including modern systems like large language models, are well known to offer unreliable estimates of the uncertainty of their decisions. In order to improve the quality of the confidence levels, also known as calibration, of a model, common approaches entail the addition of either data-dependent or data-independent regularization terms to the training loss. Data-dependent regularizers have been recently introduced in the context of conventional frequentist learning to penalize deviations between confidence and accuracy. In contrast, data-independent regularizers are at the core of Bayesian learning, enforcing adherence of the variational distribution in the model parameter space to a prior density. The former approach is unable to quantify epistemic uncertainty, while the latter is severely affected by model misspecification. In light of the limitations of both methods, this paper proposes an integrated framework, referred to as calibration-aware Bayesian neural networks (CA-BNNs), that applies both regularizers while optimizing over a variational distribution as in Bayesian learning. Numerical results validate the advantages of the proposed approach in terms of expected calibration error (ECE) and reliability diagrams.

A population-level analysis is proposed to address data sparsity when building predictive models for engineering infrastructure. Utilising an interpretable hierarchical Bayesian approach and operational fleet data, domain expertise is naturally encoded (and appropriately shared) between different sub-groups, representing (i) use-type, (ii) component, or (iii) operating condition. Specifically, domain expertise is exploited to constrain the model via assumptions (and prior distributions) allowing the methodology to automatically share information between similar assets, improving the survival analysis of a truck fleet and power prediction in a wind farm. In each asset management example, a set of correlated functions is learnt over the fleet, in a combined inference, to learn a population model. Parameter estimation is improved when sub-fleets share correlated information at different levels of the hierarchy. In turn, groups with incomplete data automatically borrow statistical strength from those that are data-rich. The statistical correlations enable knowledge transfer via Bayesian transfer learning, and the correlations can be inspected to inform which assets share information for which effect (i.e. parameter). Both case studies demonstrate the wide applicability to practical infrastructure monitoring, since the approach is naturally adapted between interpretable fleet models of different in situ examples.

Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has emerged as a promising approach for developing more intelligent autonomous vehicles (AVs). A typical DRL application on AVs is to train a neural network-based driving policy. However, the black-box nature of neural networks can result in unpredictable decision failures, making such AVs unreliable. To this end, this work proposes a method to identify and protect unreliable decisions of a DRL driving policy. The basic idea is to estimate and constrain the policy's performance uncertainty, which quantifies potential performance drop due to insufficient training data or network fitting errors. By constraining the uncertainty, the DRL model's performance is always greater than that of a baseline policy. The uncertainty caused by insufficient data is estimated by the bootstrapped method. Then, the uncertainty caused by the network fitting error is estimated using an ensemble network. Finally, a baseline policy is added as the performance lower bound to avoid potential decision failures. The overall framework is called uncertainty-bound reinforcement learning (UBRL). The proposed UBRL is evaluated on DRL policies with different amounts of training data, taking an unprotected left-turn driving case as an example. The result shows that the UBRL method can identify potentially unreliable decisions of DRL policy. The UBRL guarantees to outperform baseline policy even when the DRL policy is not well-trained and has high uncertainty. Meanwhile, the performance of UBRL improves with more training data. Such a method is valuable for the DRL application on real-road driving and provides a metric to evaluate a DRL policy.

Even when the causal graph underlying our data is unknown, we can use observational data to narrow down the possible values that an average treatment effect (ATE) can take by (1) identifying the graph up to a Markov equivalence class; and (2) estimating that ATE for each graph in the class. While the PC algorithm can identify this class under strong faithfulness assumptions, it can be computationally prohibitive. Fortunately, only the local graph structure around the treatment is required to identify the set of possible ATE values, a fact exploited by local discovery algorithms to improve computational efficiency. In this paper, we introduce Local Discovery using Eager Collider Checks (LDECC), a new local causal discovery algorithm that leverages unshielded colliders to orient the treatment's parents differently from existing methods. We show that there exist graphs where LDECC exponentially outperforms existing local discovery algorithms and vice versa. Moreover, we show that LDECC and existing algorithms rely on different faithfulness assumptions, leveraging this insight to weaken the assumptions for identifying the set of possible ATE values.

This paper proposes an online, provably robust, and scalable Bayesian approach for changepoint detection. The resulting algorithm has key advantages over previous work: it provides provable robustness by leveraging the generalised Bayesian perspective, and also addresses the scalability issues of previous attempts. Specifically, the proposed generalised Bayesian formalism leads to conjugate posteriors whose parameters are available in closed form by leveraging diffusion score matching. The resulting algorithm is exact, can be updated through simple algebra, and is more than 10 times faster than its closest competitor.