Fraud detection is to identify, monitor, and prevent potentially fraudulent activities from complex data. The recent development and success in AI, especially machine learning, provides a new data-driven way to deal with fraud. From a methodological point of view, machine learning based fraud detection can be divided into two categories, i.e., conventional methods (decision tree, tree boosting methods...) and deep learning, both of which have significant limitations in terms of the lack of representation learning ability for the former and interpretability for the latter. Furthermore, due to the rarity of detected fraud cases, the associated data is usually imbalanced, which seriously degrades the performance of classification algorithms. In this paper, we propose deep boosting decision trees (DBDT), a novel approach for fraud detection based on gradient boosting and neural networks. In order to combine the advantages of both conventional methods and deep learning, we first construct soft decision tree (SDT), a decision tree structured model with neural networks as its nodes, and then ensemble SDTs using the idea of gradient boosting. In this way we embed neural networks into gradient boosting to improve its representation learning capability and meanwhile maintain the interpretability. Furthermore, aiming at the rarity of detected fraud cases, in the model training phase we propose a compositional AUC maximization approach to deal with data imbalances at algorithm level. Extensive experiments on several real-life fraud detection datasets show that DBDT can significantly improve the performance and meanwhile maintain good interpretability.

Typical generative diffusion models rely on a Gaussian diffusion process for training the backward transformations, which can then be used to generate samples from Gaussian noise. However, real world data often takes place in discrete-state spaces, including many scientific applications. Here, we develop a theoretical formulation for arbitrary discrete-state Markov processes in the forward diffusion process using exact (as opposed to variational) analysis. We relate the theory to the existing continuous-state Gaussian diffusion as well as other approaches to discrete diffusion, and identify the corresponding reverse-time stochastic process and score function in the continuous-time setting, and the reverse-time mapping in the discrete-time setting. As an example of this framework, we introduce ``Blackout Diffusion'', which learns to produce samples from an empty image instead of from noise. Numerical experiments on the CIFAR-10, Binarized MNIST, and CelebA datasets confirm the feasibility of our approach. Generalizing from specific (Gaussian) forward processes to discrete-state processes without a variational approximation sheds light on how to interpret diffusion models, which we discuss.

As a widely recognized approach to deep generative modeling, Variational Auto-Encoders (VAEs) still face challenges with the quality of generated images, often presenting noticeable blurriness. This issue stems from the unrealistic assumption that approximates the conditional data distribution, $p(\textbf{x} | \textbf{z})$, as an isotropic Gaussian. In this paper, we propose a novel solution to address these issues. We illustrate how one can extract a latent space from a pre-existing diffusion model by optimizing an encoder to maximize the marginal data log-likelihood. Furthermore, we demonstrate that a decoder can be analytically derived post encoder-training, employing the Bayes rule for scores. This leads to a VAE-esque deep latent variable model, which discards the need for Gaussian assumptions on $p(\textbf{x} | \textbf{z})$ or the training of a separate decoder network. Our method, which capitalizes on the strengths of pre-trained diffusion models and equips them with latent spaces, results in a significant enhancement to the performance of VAEs.

Latent variable models have become instrumental in computational neuroscience for reasoning about neural computation. This has fostered the development of powerful offline algorithms for extracting latent neural trajectories from neural recordings. However, despite the potential of real time alternatives to give immediate feedback to experimentalists, and enhance experimental design, they have received markedly less attention. In this work, we introduce the exponential family variational Kalman filter (eVKF), an online recursive Bayesian method aimed at inferring latent trajectories while simultaneously learning the dynamical system generating them. We derive a closed-form variational analogue to the predict step of the Kalman filter which leads to a provably tighter bound on the ELBO compared to another online variational method. We validate our method on synthetic and real-world data, and, notably, show that it achieves competitive performance.

Uncertainty-quantification methods are applied to estimate the confidence of deep-neural-networks classifiers over their predictions. However, most widely used methods are known to be overconfident. We address this problem by developing an algorithm that exploits the latent-space representation of data points fed into the network, to assess the accuracy of their prediction. Using the latent-space representation generated by the fraction of training set that the network classifies correctly, we build a statistical model that is able to capture the likelihood of a given prediction. We show on a synthetic dataset that commonly used methods are mostly overconfident. Overconfidence occurs also for predictions made on data points that are outside the distribution that generated the training data. In contrast, our method can detect such out-of-distribution data points as inaccurately predicted, thus aiding in the automatic detection of outliers.

We consider a robust reinforcement learning problem, where a learning agent learns from a simulated training environment. To account for the model mis-specification between this training environment and the real environment due to lack of data, we adopt a formulation of Bayesian risk MDP (BRMDP) with infinite horizon, which uses Bayesian posterior to estimate the transition model and impose a risk functional to account for the model uncertainty. Observations from the real environment that is out of the agent's control arrive periodically and are utilized by the agent to update the Bayesian posterior to reduce model uncertainty. We theoretically demonstrate that BRMDP balances the trade-off between robustness and conservativeness, and we further develop a multi-stage Bayesian risk-averse Q-learning algorithm to solve BRMDP with streaming observations from real environment. The proposed algorithm learns a risk-averse yet optimal policy that depends on the availability of real-world observations. We provide a theoretical guarantee of strong convergence for the proposed algorithm.

There have thousands of crimes are happening daily all around. But people keep statistics only few of them, therefore crime rates are increasing day by day. The reason behind can be less concern or less statistics of previous crimes. It is much more important to observe the previous crime statistics for general people to make their outing decision and police for catching the criminals are taking steps to restrain the crimes and tourists to make their travelling decision. National institute of justice releases crime survey data for the country, but does not offer crime statistics up to Union or Thana level. Considering all of these cases we have come up with an approach which can give an approximation to people about the safety of a specific location with crime ranking of different areas locating the crimes on a map including a future crime occurrence prediction mechanism. Our approach relies on different online Bangla newspapers for crawling the crime data, stemming and keyword extraction, location finding algorithm, cosine similarity, naive Bayes classifier, and a custom crime prediction model

The importance of unspanned macroeconomic variables for Dynamic Term Structure Models has been intensively discussed in the literature. To our best knowledge the earlier studies considered only linear interactions between the economy and the real-world dynamics of interest rates in DTSMs. We propose a generalized modelling setup for Gaussian DTSMs which allows for unspanned nonlinear associations between the two and we exploit it in forecasting. Specifically, we construct a custom sequential Monte Carlo estimation and forecasting scheme where we introduce Gaussian Process priors to model nonlinearities. Sequential scheme we propose can also be used with dynamic portfolio optimization to assess the potential of generated economic value to investors. The methodology is presented using US Treasury data and selected macroeconomic indices. Namely, we look at core inflation and real economic activity. We contrast the results obtained from the nonlinear model with those stemming from an application of a linear model. Unlike for real economic activity, in case of core inflation we find that, compared to linear models, application of nonlinear models leads to statistically significant gains in economic value across considered maturities.

To solve this problem, there are two main classes of computational methods that provide different approaches to approximate π. The first one is Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods (Metropolis et al., 1953; Hastings, 1970; Robert and Casella, 1999). For many years, MCMC has been the standard approach for Bayesian analysis because of its theoretical soundness. The method constructs a Markov chain to produce simulation consistent samples from the target distribution π. A general MCMC approach is the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm that generates a Markov chain by first generating a proposed state from a proposal distribution, then using an acceptance rule to decide whether to accept the proposal or stay at the current state (Robert and Casella, 1999).

Link prediction problem has increasingly become prominent in many domains such as social network analyses, bioinformatics experiments, transportation networks, criminal investigations and so forth. A variety of techniques has been developed for link prediction problem, categorized into 1) similarity based approaches which study a set of features to extract similar nodes; 2) learning based approaches which extract patterns from the input data; 3) probabilistic statistical approaches which optimize a set of parameters to establish a model which can best compute formation probability. However, existing literatures lack approaches which utilize strength of each approach by integrating them to achieve a much more productive one. To tackle the link prediction problem, we propose an approach based on the combination of first and second group methods; the existing studied works use just one of these categories. Our two-phase developed method firstly determines new features related to the position and dynamic behavior of nodes, which enforce the approach more efficiency compared to approaches using mere measures. Then, a subspace clustering algorithm is applied to group social objects based on the computed similarity measures which differentiate the strength of clusters; basically, the usage of local and global indices and the clustering information plays an imperative role in our link prediction process. Some extensive experiments held on real datasets including Facebook, Brightkite and HepTh indicate good performances of our proposal method. Besides, we have experimentally verified our approach with some previous techniques in the area to prove the supremacy of ours.