The transition to Electric Vehicles (EV) in place of traditional internal combustion engines is increasing societal demand for electricity. The ability to integrate the additional demand from EV charging into forecasting electricity demand is critical for maintaining the reliability of electricity generation and distribution. Load forecasting studies typically exclude households with home EV charging, focusing on offices, schools, and public charging stations. Moreover, they provide point forecasts which do not offer information about prediction uncertainty. Consequently, this paper proposes the Long Short-Term Memory Bayesian Neural Networks (LSTM-BNNs) for household load forecasting in presence of EV charging. The approach takes advantage of the LSTM model to capture the time dependencies and uses the dropout layer with Bayesian inference to generate prediction intervals. Results show that the proposed LSTM-BNNs achieve accuracy similar to point forecasts with the advantage of prediction intervals. Moreover, the impact of lockdowns related to the COVID-19 pandemic on the load forecasting model is examined, and the analysis shows that there is no major change in the model performance as, for the considered households, the randomness of the EV charging outweighs the change due to pandemic.

Extreme wildfires are a significant cause of human death and biodiversity destruction within countries that encompass the Mediterranean Basin. Recent worrying trends in wildfire activity (i.e., occurrence and spread) suggest that wildfires are likely to be highly impacted by climate change. In order to facilitate appropriate risk mitigation, we must identify the main drivers of extreme wildfires and assess their spatio-temporal trends, with a view to understanding the impacts of global warming on fire activity. We analyse the monthly burnt area due to wildfires over a region encompassing most of Europe and the Mediterranean Basin from 2001 to 2020, and identify high fire activity during this period in Algeria, Italy and Portugal. We build an extreme quantile regression model with a high-dimensional predictor set describing meteorological conditions, land cover usage, and orography. To model the complex relationships between the predictor variables and wildfires, we use a hybrid statistical deep-learning framework that can disentangle the effects of vapour-pressure deficit (VPD), air temperature, and drought on wildfire activity. Our results highlight that whilst VPD, air temperature, and drought significantly affect wildfire occurrence, only VPD affects wildfire spread. To gain insights into the effect of climate trends on wildfires in the near future, we focus on August 2001 and perturb temperature according to its observed trends (median over Europe: +0.04K per year). We find that, on average over Europe, these trends lead to a relative increase of 17.1\% and 1.6\% in the expected frequency and severity, respectively, of wildfires in August 2001, with spatially non-uniform changes in both aspects.

As a main field of artificial intelligence, natural language processing (NLP) has achieved remarkable success via deep neural networks. Plenty of NLP tasks have been addressed in a unified manner, with various tasks being associated with each other through sharing the same paradigm. However, neural networks are black boxes and rely on probability computation. Making mistakes is inevitable. Therefore, estimating the reliability and trustworthiness (in other words, uncertainty) of neural networks becomes a key research direction, which plays a crucial role in reducing models' risks and making better decisions. Therefore, in this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of uncertainty-relevant works in the NLP field. Considering the data and paradigms characteristics, we first categorize the sources of uncertainty in natural language into three types, including input, system, and output. Then, we systemically review uncertainty quantification approaches and the main applications. Finally, we discuss the challenges of uncertainty estimation in NLP and discuss potential future directions, taking into account recent trends in the field. Though there have been a few surveys about uncertainty estimation, our work is the first to review uncertainty from the NLP perspective.

Accurate vehicle trajectory prediction is an unsolved problem in autonomous driving with various open research questions. State-of-the-art approaches regress trajectories either in a one-shot or step-wise manner. Although one-shot approaches are usually preferred for their simplicity, they relinquish powerful self-supervision schemes that can be constructed by chaining multiple time-steps. We address this issue by proposing a middle-ground where multiple trajectory segments are chained together. Our proposed Multi-Branch Self-Supervised Predictor receives additional training on new predictions starting at intermediate future segments. In addition, the model 'imagines' the latent context and 'predicts the past' while combining multi-modal trajectories in a tree-like manner. We deliberately keep aspects such as interaction and environment modeling simplistic and nevertheless achieve competitive results on the INTERACTION dataset. Furthermore, we investigate the sparsely explored uncertainty estimation of deterministic predictors. We find positive correlations between the prediction error and two proposed metrics, which might pave way for determining prediction confidence.

Many machine learning algorithms require large numbers of labeled data to deliver state-of-the-art results. In applications such as medical diagnosis and fraud detection, though there is an abundance of unlabeled data, it is costly to label the data by experts, experiments, or simulations. Active learning algorithms aim to reduce the number of required labeled data points while preserving performance. For many convex optimization problems such as linear regression and $p$-norm regression, there are theoretical bounds on the number of required labels to achieve a certain accuracy. We call this the query complexity of active learning. However, today's active learning algorithms require the underlying learned function to have an orthogonal basis. For example, when applying active learning to linear regression, the requirement is the target function is a linear composition of a set of orthogonal linear functions, and active learning can find the coefficients of these linear functions. We present a theoretical result to show that active learning does not need an orthogonal basis but rather only requires a nearly orthogonal basis. We provide the corresponding theoretical proofs for the function family of nearly orthogonal basis, and its applications associated with the algorithmically efficient active learning framework.

Using noisy crowdsourced labels from multiple annotators, a deep learning-based end-to-end (E2E) system aims to learn the label correction mechanism and the neural classifier simultaneously. To this end, many E2E systems concatenate the neural classifier with multiple annotator-specific ``label confusion'' layers and co-train the two parts in a parameter-coupled manner. The formulated coupled cross-entropy minimization (CCEM)-type criteria are intuitive and work well in practice. Nonetheless, theoretical understanding of the CCEM criterion has been limited. The contribution of this work is twofold: First, performance guarantees of the CCEM criterion are presented. Our analysis reveals for the first time that the CCEM can indeed correctly identify the annotators' confusion characteristics and the desired ``ground-truth'' neural classifier under realistic conditions, e.g., when only incomplete annotator labeling and finite samples are available. Second, based on the insights learned from our analysis, two regularized variants of the CCEM are proposed. The regularization terms provably enhance the identifiability of the target model parameters in various more challenging cases. A series of synthetic and real data experiments are presented to showcase the effectiveness of our approach.

Latent Gaussian models have a rich history in statistics and machine learning, with applications ranging from factor analysis to compressed sensing to time series analysis. The classical method for maximizing the likelihood of these models is the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. For problems with high-dimensional latent variables and large datasets, EM scales poorly because it needs to invert as many large covariance matrices as the number of data points. We introduce probabilistic unrolling, a method that combines Monte Carlo sampling with iterative linear solvers to circumvent matrix inversion. Our theoretical analyses reveal that unrolling and backpropagation through the iterations of the solver can accelerate gradient estimation for maximum likelihood estimation. In experiments on simulated and real data, we demonstrate that probabilistic unrolling learns latent Gaussian models up to an order of magnitude faster than gradient EM, with minimal losses in model performance.

Behavioural experiments often happen in specialised arenas, but this may confound the analysis. To address this issue, we provide tools to study mice in the homecage environment, equipping biologists with the possibility to capture the temporal aspect of the individual's behaviour and model the interaction and interdependence between cage-mates with minimal human intervention. We develop the Activity Labelling Module (ALM) to automatically classify mouse behaviour from video, and a novel Group Behaviour Model (GBM) for summarising their joint behaviour across cages, using a permutation matrix to match the mouse identities in each cage to the model. We also release two datasets, ABODe for training behaviour classifiers and IMADGE for modelling behaviour.

The task of the session-based recommendation is to predict the next interaction of the user based on the anonymized user's behavior pattern. And personalized version of this system is a promising research field due to its availability to deal with user information. However, there's a problem that the user's preferences and historical sessions were not considered in the typical session-based recommendation since it concentrates only on user-item interaction. In addition, the existing personalized session-based recommendation model has a limited capability in that it only considers the preference of the current user without considering those of similar users. It means there can be the loss of information included within the hierarchical data structure of the user-session-item. To tackle with this problem, we propose USP-SBR(abbr. of User Similarity Powered - Session Based Recommender). To model global historical sessions of users, we propose UserGraph that has two types of nodes - ItemNode and UserNode. We then connect the nodes with three types of edges. The first type of edges connects ItemNode as chronological order, and the second connects ItemNode to UserNode, and the last connects UserNode to ItemNode. With these user embeddings, we propose additional contrastive loss, that makes users with similar intention be close to each other in the vector space. we apply graph neural network on these UserGraph and update nodes. Experimental results on two real-world datasets demonstrate that our method outperforms some state-of-the-art approaches.

With only observational data on two variables, and without other assumptions, it is not possible to infer which one causes the other. Much of the causal literature has focused on guaranteeing identifiability of causal direction in statistical models for datasets where strong assumptions hold, such as additive noise or restrictions on parameter count. These methods are then subsequently tested on realistic datasets, most of which violate their assumptions. Building on previous attempts, we show how to use causal assumptions within the Bayesian framework. This allows us to specify models with realistic assumptions, while also encoding independent causal mechanisms, leading to an asymmetry between the causal directions. Identifying causal direction then becomes a Bayesian model selection problem. We analyse why Bayesian model selection works for known identifiable cases and flexible model classes, while also providing correctness guarantees about its behaviour. To demonstrate our approach, we construct a Bayesian non-parametric model that can flexibly model the joint. We then outperform previous methods on a wide range of benchmark datasets with varying data generating assumptions showing the usefulness of our method.