Simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) is the task of building a map representation of an unknown environment while it at the same time is used for positioning. A probabilistic interpretation of the SLAM task allows for incorporating prior knowledge and for operation under uncertainty. Contrary to the common practice of computing point estimates of the system states, we capture the full posterior density through approximate Bayesian inference. This dynamic learning task falls under state estimation, where the state-of-the-art is in sequential Monte Carlo methods that tackle the forward filtering problem. In this paper, we introduce a framework for probabilistic SLAM using particle smoothing that does not only incorporate observed data in current state estimates, but it also back-tracks the updated knowledge to correct for past drift and ambiguities in both the map and in the states. Our solution can efficiently handle both dense and sparse map representations by Rao-Blackwellization of conditionally linear and conditionally linearized models. We show through simulations and real-world experiments how the principles apply to radio (BLE/Wi-Fi), magnetic field, and visual SLAM. The proposed solution is general, efficient, and works well under confounding noise.

An important problem in time-series analysis is modeling systems with time-varying dynamics. Probabilistic models with joint continuous and discrete latent states offer interpretable, efficient, and experimentally useful descriptions of such data. Commonly used models include autoregressive hidden Markov models (ARHMMs) and switching linear dynamical systems (SLDSs), each with its own advantages and disadvantages. ARHMMs permit exact inference and easy parameter estimation, but are parameter intensive when modeling long dependencies, and hence are prone to overfitting. In contrast, SLDSs can capture long-range dependencies in a parameter efficient way through Markovian latent dynamics, but present an intractable likelihood and a challenging parameter estimation task. In this paper, we propose switching autoregressive low-rank tensor (SALT) models, which retain the advantages of both approaches while ameliorating the weaknesses. SALT parameterizes the tensor of an ARHMM with a low-rank factorization to control the number of parameters and allow longer range dependencies without overfitting. We prove theoretical and discuss practical connections between SALT, linear dynamical systems, and SLDSs. We empirically demonstrate quantitative advantages of SALT models on a range of simulated and real prediction tasks, including behavioral and neural datasets. Furthermore, the learned low-rank tensor provides novel insights into temporal dependencies within each discrete state.

A major challenge in the field of Text Generation is evaluation: Human evaluations are cost-intensive, and automated metrics often display considerable disagreement with human judgments. In this paper, we propose a statistical model of Text Generation evaluation that accounts for the error-proneness of automated metrics when used to generate preference rankings between system outputs. We show that existing automated metrics are generally over-confident in assigning significant differences between systems in this setting. However, our model enables an efficient combination of human and automated ratings to remedy the error-proneness of the automated metrics. We show that using this combination, we only require about 50% of the human annotations typically used in evaluations to arrive at robust and statistically significant results while yielding the same evaluation outcome as the pure human evaluation in 95% of cases. We showcase the benefits of approach for three text generation tasks: dialogue systems, machine translation, and text summarization.

Quantum theory, originally proposed as a physical theory to describe the motions of microscopic particles, has been applied to various non-physics domains involving human cognition and decision-making that are inherently uncertain and exhibit certain non-classical, quantum-like characteristics. Sentiment analysis is a typical example of such domains. In the last few years, by leveraging the modeling power of quantum probability (a non-classical probability stemming from quantum mechanics methodology) and deep neural networks, a range of novel quantum-cognitively inspired models for sentiment analysis have emerged and performed well. This survey presents a timely overview of the latest developments in this fascinating cross-disciplinary area. We first provide a background of quantum probability and quantum cognition at a theoretical level, analyzing their advantages over classical theories in modeling the cognitive aspects of sentiment analysis. Then, recent quantum-cognitively inspired models are introduced and discussed in detail, focusing on how they approach the key challenges of the sentiment analysis task. Finally, we discuss the limitations of the current research and highlight future research directions.

The distributed flocking control of collective aerial vehicles has extraordinary advantages in scalability and reliability, \emph{etc.} However, it is still challenging to design a reliable, efficient, and responsive flocking algorithm. In this paper, a distributed predictive flocking framework is presented based on a Markov random field (MRF). The MRF is used to characterize the optimization problem that is eventually resolved by discretizing the input space. Potential functions are employed to describe the interactions between aerial vehicles and as indicators of flight performance. The dynamic constraints are taken into account in the candidate feasible trajectories which correspond to random variables. Numerical simulation shows that compared with some existing latest methods, the proposed algorithm has better-flocking cohesion and control efficiency performances. Experiments are also conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed algorithm.

Prior beliefs about the latent function to shape inductive biases can be incorporated into a Gaussian Process (GP) via the kernel. However, beyond kernel choices, the decision-making process of GP models remains poorly understood. In this work, we contribute an analysis of the loss landscape for GP models using methods from physics. We demonstrate $\nu$-continuity for Matern kernels and outline aspects of catastrophe theory at critical points in the loss landscape. By directly including $\nu$ in the hyperparameter optimisation for Matern kernels, we find that typical values of $\nu$ are far from optimal in terms of performance, yet prevail in the literature due to the increased computational speed. We also provide an a priori method for evaluating the effect of GP ensembles and discuss various voting approaches based on physical properties of the loss landscape. The utility of these approaches is demonstrated for various synthetic and real datasets. Our findings provide an enhanced understanding of the decision-making process behind GPs and offer practical guidance for improving their performance and interpretability in a range of applications.

Learning fine-grained movements is a challenging topic in robotics, particularly in the context of robotic hands. One specific instance of this challenge is the acquisition of fingerspelling sign language in robots. In this paper, we propose an approach for learning dexterous motor imitation from video examples without additional information. To achieve this, we first build a URDF model of a robotic hand with a single actuator for each joint. We then leverage pre-trained deep vision models to extract the 3D pose of the hand from RGB videos. Next, using state-of-the-art reinforcement learning algorithms for motion imitation (namely, proximal policy optimization and soft actor-critic), we train a policy to reproduce the movement extracted from the demonstrations. We identify the optimal set of hyperparameters for imitation based on a reference motion. Finally, we demonstrate the generalizability of our approach by testing it on six different tasks, corresponding to fingerspelled letters. Our results show that our approach is able to successfully imitate these fine-grained movements without additional information, highlighting its potential for real-world applications in robotics.

We introduce a deep learning accelerated methodology to solve PDE-based Bayesian inverse problems with guaranteed accuracy. This is motivated by the ill-posed problem of inferring a spatio-temporal heat-flux parameter known as the Biot number given temperature data, however the methodology is generalisable to other settings. To accelerate Bayesian inference, we develop a novel training scheme that uses data to adaptively train a neural-network surrogate simulating the parametric forward model. By simultaneously identifying an approximate posterior distribution over the Biot number, and weighting a physics-informed training loss according to this, our approach approximates forward and inverse solution together without any need for external solves. Using a random Chebyshev series, we outline how to approximate a Gaussian process prior, and using the surrogate we apply Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) to sample from the posterior distribution. We derive convergence of the surrogate posterior to the true posterior distribution in the Hellinger metric as our adaptive loss approaches zero. Additionally, we describe how this surrogate-accelerated HMC approach can be combined with traditional PDE solvers in a delayed-acceptance scheme to a-priori control the posterior accuracy. This overcomes a major limitation of deep learning-based surrogate approaches, which do not achieve guaranteed accuracy a-priori due to their non-convex training. Biot number calculations are involved in turbo-machinery design, which is safety critical and highly regulated, therefore it is important that our results have such mathematical guarantees. Our approach achieves fast mixing in high dimensions whilst retaining the convergence guarantees of a traditional PDE solver, and without the burden of evaluating this solver for proposals that are likely to be rejected. Numerical results are given using real and simulated data.

We introduce hybrid execution in multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL), a new paradigm in which agents aim to successfully complete cooperative tasks with arbitrary communication levels at execution time by taking advantage of information-sharing among the agents. Under hybrid execution, the communication level can range from a setting in which no communication is allowed between agents (fully decentralized), to a setting featuring full communication (fully centralized), but the agents do not know beforehand which communication level they will encounter at execution time. To formalize our setting, we define a new class of multi-agent partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) that we name hybrid-POMDPs, which explicitly model a communication process between the agents. We contribute MARO, an approach that makes use of an auto-regressive predictive model, trained in a centralized manner, to estimate missing agents' observations at execution time. We evaluate MARO on standard scenarios and extensions of previous benchmarks tailored to emphasize the negative impact of partial observability in MARL. Experimental results show that our method consistently outperforms relevant baselines, allowing agents to act with faulty communication while successfully exploiting shared information.

This paper investigates how deep multi-agent reinforcement learning can enable the scalable and privacy-preserving coordination of residential energy flexibility. The coordination of distributed resources such as electric vehicles and heating will be critical to the successful integration of large shares of renewable energy in our electricity grid and, thus, to help mitigate climate change. The pre-learning of individual reinforcement learning policies can enable distributed control with no sharing of personal data required during execution. However, previous approaches for multi-agent reinforcement learning-based distributed energy resources coordination impose an ever greater training computational burden as the size of the system increases. We therefore adopt a deep multi-agent actor-critic method which uses a \emph{centralised but factored critic} to rehearse coordination ahead of execution. Results show that coordination is achieved at scale, with minimal information and communication infrastructure requirements, no interference with daily activities, and privacy protection. Significant savings are obtained for energy users, the distribution network and greenhouse gas emissions. Moreover, training times are nearly 40 times shorter than with a previous state-of-the-art reinforcement learning approach without the factored critic for 30 homes.