Recent years have seen a growing interest in methods for predicting a variable of interest, such as a subject's diagnosis, from medical images. Methods based on discriminative modeling excel at making accurate predictions, but are challenged in their ability to explain their decisions in anatomically meaningful terms. In this paper, we propose a simple technique for single-subject prediction that is inherently interpretable. It augments the generative models used in classical human brain mapping techniques, in which cause-effect relations can be encoded, with a multivariate noise model that captures dominant spatial correlations. Experiments demonstrate that the resulting model can be efficiently inverted to make accurate subject-level predictions, while at the same time offering intuitive causal explanations of its inner workings. The method is easy to use: training is fast for typical training set sizes, and only a single hyperparameter needs to be set by the user. Our code is available at https://github.com/chiara-mauri/Interpretable-subject-level-prediction.

Word frequency is a strong predictor in most lexical processing tasks. Thus, any model of word recognition needs to account for how word frequency effects arise. The Discriminative Lexicon Model (DLM; Baayen et al., 2018a, 2019) models lexical processing with linear mappings between words' forms and their meanings. So far, the mappings can either be obtained incrementally via error-driven learning, a computationally expensive process able to capture frequency effects, or in an efficient, but frequency-agnostic closed-form solution modelling the theoretical endstate of learning (EL) where all words are learned optimally. In this study we show how an efficient, yet frequency-informed mapping between form and meaning can be obtained (Frequency-informed learning; FIL). We find that FIL well approximates an incremental solution while being computationally much cheaper. FIL shows a relatively low type- and high token-accuracy, demonstrating that the model is able to process most word tokens encountered by speakers in daily life correctly. We use FIL to model reaction times in the Dutch Lexicon Project (Keuleers et al., 2010) and find that FIL predicts well the S-shaped relationship between frequency and the mean of reaction times but underestimates the variance of reaction times for low frequency words. FIL is also better able to account for priming effects in an auditory lexical decision task in Mandarin Chinese (Lee, 2007), compared to EL. Finally, we used ordered data from CHILDES (Brown, 1973; Demuth et al., 2006) to compare mappings obtained with FIL and incremental learning. The mappings are highly correlated, but with FIL some nuances based on word ordering effects are lost. Our results show how frequency effects in a learning model can be simulated efficiently by means of a closed-form solution, and raise questions about how to best account for low-frequency words in cognitive models.

Algorithms for causal discovery have recently undergone rapid advances and increasingly draw on flexible nonparametric methods to process complex data. With these advances comes a need for adequate empirical validation of the causal relationships learned by different algorithms. However, for most real data sources true causal relations remain unknown. This issue is further compounded by privacy concerns surrounding the release of suitable high-quality data. To help address these challenges, we gather a complex dataset comprising measurements from an assembly line in a manufacturing context. This line consists of numerous physical processes for which we are able to provide ground truth causal relationships on the basis of a detailed study of the underlying physics. We use the assembly line data and associated ground truth information to build a system for generation of semisynthetic manufacturing data that supports benchmarking of causal discovery methods. To accomplish this, we employ distributional random forests in order to flexibly estimate and represent conditional distributions that may be combined into joint distributions that strictly adhere to a causal model over the observed variables. The estimated conditionals and tools for data generation are made available in our Python library $\texttt{causalAssembly}$. Using the library, we showcase how to benchmark several well-known causal discovery algorithms.

First Order Bayesian Optimization (FOBO) is a sample efficient sequential approach to find the global maxima of an expensive-to-evaluate black-box objective function by suitably querying for the function and its gradient evaluations. Such methods assume Gaussian process (GP) models for both, the function and its gradient, and use them to construct an acquisition function that identifies the next query point. In this paper, we propose a class of practical FOBO algorithms that efficiently utilizes the information from the gradient GP to identify potential query points with zero gradients. We construct a multi-level acquisition function where in the first step, we optimize a lower level acquisition function with multiple restarts to identify potential query points with zero gradient value. We then use the upper level acquisition function to rank these query points based on their function values to potentially identify the global maxima. As a final step, the potential point of maxima is chosen as the actual query point. We validate the performance of our proposed algorithms on several test functions and show that our algorithms outperform state-of-the-art FOBO algorithms. We also illustrate the application of our algorithms in finding optimal set of hyper-parameters in machine learning and in learning the optimal policy in reinforcement learning tasks.

In this paper, we introduce BNN-DP, an efficient algorithmic framework for analysis of adversarial robustness of Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs). Given a compact set of input points $T\subset \mathbb{R}^n$, BNN-DP computes lower and upper bounds on the BNN's predictions for all the points in $T$. The framework is based on an interpretation of BNNs as stochastic dynamical systems, which enables the use of Dynamic Programming (DP) algorithms to bound the prediction range along the layers of the network. Specifically, the method uses bound propagation techniques and convex relaxations to derive a backward recursion procedure to over-approximate the prediction range of the BNN with piecewise affine functions. The algorithm is general and can handle both regression and classification tasks. On a set of experiments on various regression and classification tasks and BNN architectures, we show that BNN-DP outperforms state-of-the-art methods by up to four orders of magnitude in both tightness of the bounds and computational efficiency.

Road safety is a crucial issue that affects not only the individuals involved in road accidents, but also society as a whole. The cost of road accidents in terms of human lives lost, physical and emotional suffering, and financial losses is enormous. Thus, it is important to understand the factors that contribute to road accidents and to develop strategies to reduce the number and severity of these incidents. One of the most important steps in this process is the identification of "black spots," areas where the number of accidents is significantly higher compared to other parts of the road network. The identification of black spots is crucial for prioritizing road safety interventions and evaluating their effectiveness in reducing the number of accidents. These events can range from minor incidents, such as fender benders, to serious crashes, resulting in fatalities or severe injuries. Thus, identifying these areas provides insights into the underlying causes of these accidents. For example, black spot analysis can reveal the presence of road design or infrastructure issues that may contribute to accidents, such as poor lighting, confusing road signs, and a lack of pedestrian crossings.

In many domains, autoregressive models can attain high likelihood on the task of predicting the next observation. However, this maximum-likelihood (MLE) objective does not necessarily match a downstream use-case of autoregressively generating high-quality sequences. The MLE objective weights sequences proportionally to their frequency under the data distribution, with no guidance for the model's behaviour out of distribution (OOD): leading to compounding error during autoregressive generation. In order to address this compounding error problem, we formulate sequence generation as an imitation learning (IL) problem. This allows us to minimize a variety of divergences between the distribution of sequences generated by an autoregressive model and sequences from a dataset, including divergences with weight on OOD generated sequences. The IL framework also allows us to incorporate backtracking by introducing a backspace action into the generation process. This further mitigates the compounding error problem by allowing the model to revert a sampled token if it takes the sequence OOD. Our resulting method, SequenceMatch, can be implemented without adversarial training or major architectural changes. We identify the SequenceMatch-$\chi^2$ divergence as a more suitable training objective for autoregressive models which are used for generation. We show that empirically, SequenceMatch training leads to improvements over MLE on text generation with language models.

We consider the problem of sequentially maximising an unknown function over a set of actions while ensuring that every sampled point has a function value below a given safety threshold. We model the function using kernel-based and Gaussian process methods, while differing from previous works in our assumption that the function is monotonically increasing with respect to a \emph{safety variable}. This assumption is motivated by various practical applications such as adaptive clinical trial design and robotics. Taking inspiration from the \textsc{\sffamily GP-UCB} and \textsc{\sffamily SafeOpt} algorithms, we propose an algorithm, monotone safe {\sffamily UCB} (\textsc{\sffamily M-SafeUCB}) for this task. We show that \textsc{\sffamily M-SafeUCB} enjoys theoretical guarantees in terms of safety, a suitably-defined regret notion, and approximately finding the entire safe boundary. In addition, we illustrate that the monotonicity assumption yields significant benefits in terms of the guarantees obtained, as well as algorithmic simplicity and efficiency. We support our theoretical findings by performing empirical evaluations on a variety of functions, including a simulated clinical trial experiment.

Sensors are crucial for autonomous operation in robotic vehicles (RV). Unfortunately, RV sensors can be compromised by physical attacks such as tampering or spoofing, leading to a crash. In this paper, we present DeLorean, a modelfree recovery framework for recovering autonomous RVs from sensor deception attacks (SDA). DeLorean is designed to recover RVs even from a strong SDA in which the adversary targets multiple heterogeneous sensors simultaneously (even all the sensors). Under SDAs, DeLorean inspects the attack induced errors, identifies the targeted sensors, and prevents the erroneous sensor inputs from being used to derive actuator signals. DeLorean then replays historic state information in the RV's feedback control loop for a temporary mitigation and recovers the RV from SDA. Our evaluation on four real and two simulated RVs shows that DeLorean can recover RVs from SDAs, and ensure mission success in 90.7% of the cases on average.

Markov decision processes (MDPs) are formal models commonly used in sequential decision-making. MDPs capture the stochasticity that may arise, for instance, from imprecise actuators via probabilities in the transition function. However, in data-driven applications, deriving precise probabilities from (limited) data introduces statistical errors that may lead to unexpected or undesirable outcomes. Uncertain MDPs (uMDPs) do not require precise probabilities but instead use so-called uncertainty sets in the transitions, accounting for such limited data. Tools from the formal verification community efficiently compute robust policies that provably adhere to formal specifications, like safety constraints, under the worst-case instance in the uncertainty set. We continuously learn the transition probabilities of an MDP in a robust anytime-learning approach that combines a dedicated Bayesian inference scheme with the computation of robust policies. In particular, our method (1) approximates probabilities as intervals, (2) adapts to new data that may be inconsistent with an intermediate model, and (3) may be stopped at any time to compute a robust policy on the uMDP that faithfully captures the data so far. Furthermore, our method is capable of adapting to changes in the environment. We show the effectiveness of our approach and compare it to robust policies computed on uMDPs learned by the UCRL2 reinforcement learning algorithm in an experimental evaluation on several benchmarks.