Causal effect estimation has been studied by many researchers when only observational data is available. Sound and complete algorithms have been developed for pointwise estimation of identifiable causal queries. For non-identifiable causal queries, researchers developed polynomial programs to estimate tight bounds on causal effect. However, these are computationally difficult to optimize for variables with large support sizes. In this paper, we analyze the effect of "weak confounding" on causal estimands. More specifically, under the assumption that the unobserved confounders that render a query non-identifiable have small entropy, we propose an efficient linear program to derive the upper and lower bounds of the causal effect. We show that our bounds are consistent in the sense that as the entropy of unobserved confounders goes to zero, the gap between the upper and lower bound vanishes. Finally, we conduct synthetic and real data simulations to compare our bounds with the bounds obtained by the existing work that cannot incorporate such entropy constraints and show that our bounds are tighter for the setting with weak confounders.

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image understanding is crucial in remote sensing applications, but it is hindered by its intrinsic noise contamination, called speckle. Sophisticated statistical models, such as the $\mathcal{G}^0$ family of distributions, have been employed to SAR data and many of the current advancements in processing this imagery have been accomplished through extracting information from these models. In this paper, we propose improvements to parameter estimation in $\mathcal{G}^0$ distributions using the Method of Log-Cumulants. First, using Bayesian modeling, we construct that regularly produce reliable roughness estimates under both $\mathcal{G}^0_A$ and $\mathcal{G}^0_I$ models. Second, we make use of an approximation of the Trigamma function to compute the estimated roughness in constant time, making it considerably faster than the existing method for this task. Finally, we show how we can use this method to achieve fast and reliable SAR image understanding based on roughness information.

Quadrupedal robots have emerged as a cutting-edge platform for assisting humans, finding applications in tasks related to inspection and exploration in remote areas. Nevertheless, their floating base structure renders them susceptible to fall in cluttered environments, where manual recovery by a human operator may not always be feasible. Several recent studies have presented recovery controllers employing deep reinforcement learning algorithms. However, these controllers are not specifically designed to operate effectively in cluttered environments, such as stairs and slopes, which restricts their applicability. In this study, we propose a robust all-terrain recovery policy to facilitate rapid and secure recovery in cluttered environments. We substantiate the superiority of our proposed approach through simulations and real-world tests encompassing various terrain types.

Predicting the presence of major depressive disorder (MDD) using behavioural and cognitive signals is a highly non-trivial task. The heterogeneous clinical profile of MDD means that any given speech, facial expression and/or observed cognitive pattern may be associated with a unique combination of depressive symptoms. Conventional discriminative machine learning models potentially lack the complexity to robustly model this heterogeneity. Bayesian networks, however, may instead be well-suited to such a scenario. These networks are probabilistic graphical models that efficiently describe the joint probability distribution over a set of random variables by explicitly capturing their conditional dependencies. This framework provides further advantages over standard discriminative modelling by offering the possibility to incorporate expert opinion in the graphical structure of the models, generating explainable model predictions, informing about the uncertainty of predictions, and naturally handling missing data. In this study, we apply a Bayesian framework to capture the relationships between depression, depression symptoms, and features derived from speech, facial expression and cognitive game data collected at thymia.

Modelling and forecasting real-life human behaviour using online social media is an active endeavour of interest in politics, government, academia, and industry. Since its creation in 2006, Twitter has been proposed as a potential laboratory that could be used to gauge and predict social behaviour. During the last decade, the user base of Twitter has been growing and becoming more representative of the general population. Here we analyse this user base in the context of the 2021 Mexican Legislative Election. To do so, we use a dataset of 15 million election-related tweets in the six months preceding election day. We explore different election models that assign political preference to either the ruling parties or the opposition. We find that models using data with geographical attributes determine the results of the election with better precision and accuracy than conventional polling methods. These results demonstrate that analysis of public online data can outperform conventional polling methods, and that political analysis and general forecasting would likely benefit from incorporating such data in the immediate future. Moreover, the same Twitter dataset with geographical attributes is positively correlated with results from official census data on population and internet usage in Mexico. These findings suggest that we have reached a period in time when online activity, appropriately curated, can provide an accurate representation of offline behaviour.

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have played a significant role in statistics, physics, machine learning and others, and they are the only known general and efficient approach for some high-dimensional problems. The random walk Metropolis (RWM) algorithm as the most classical MCMC algorithm, has had a great influence on the development and practice of science and engineering. The behavior of the RWM algorithm in high-dimensional problems is typically investigated through a weak convergence result of diffusion processes. In this paper, we utilize the Mosco convergence of Dirichlet forms in analyzing the RWM algorithm on large graphs, whose target distribution is the Gibbs measure that includes any probability measure satisfying a Markov property. The abstract and powerful theory of Dirichlet forms allows us to work directly and naturally on the infinite-dimensional space, and our notion of Mosco convergence allows Dirichlet forms associated with the RWM chains to lie on changing Hilbert spaces. Through the optimal scaling problem, we demonstrate the impressive strengths of the Dirichlet form approach over the standard diffusion approach.

To safely and efficiently extract an object from the clutter, this paper presents a bimanual manipulation planner in which one hand of the robot is used to slide the target object out of the clutter while the other hand is used to support the surrounding objects to prevent the clutter from collapsing. Our method uses a neural network to predict the physical phenomena of the clutter when the target object is moved. We generate the most efficient action based on the Monte Carlo tree search.The grasping and sliding actions are planned to minimize the number of motion sequences to pick the target object. In addition, the object to be supported is determined to minimize the position change of surrounding objects. Experiments with a real bimanual robot confirmed that the robot could retrieve the target object, reducing the total number of motion sequences and improving safety.

There is increasing attention being given to how to regulate AI systems. As governing bodies grapple with what values to encapsulate into regulation, we consider the technical half of the question: To what extent can AI experts vet an AI system for adherence to regulatory requirements? We investigate this question through two public sector procurement checklists, identifying what we can do now, what we should be able to do with technical innovation in AI, and what requirements necessitate a more interdisciplinary approach.

When analyzing real-world data it is common to work with event ensembles, which comprise sets of observations that collectively constrain the parameters of an underlying model of interest. Such models often have a hierarchical structure, where "local" parameters impact individual events and "global" parameters influence the entire dataset. We introduce practical approaches for optimal dataset-wide probabilistic inference in cases where the likelihood is intractable, but simulations can be realized via forward modeling. We construct neural estimators for the likelihood(-ratio) or posterior and show that explicitly accounting for the model's hierarchical structure can lead to tighter parameter constraints. We ground our discussion using case studies from the physical sciences, focusing on examples from particle physics (particle collider data) and astrophysics (strong gravitational lensing observations).

Assessing the predictive uncertainty of deep neural networks is crucial for safety-related applications of deep learning. Although Bayesian deep learning offers a principled framework for estimating model uncertainty, the approaches that are commonly used to approximate the posterior often fail to deliver reliable estimates of predictive uncertainty. In this paper we propose a novel criterion for predictive uncertainty, that a model's predictive variance should be grounded in the empirical density of the input. It should produce higher uncertainty for inputs that are improbable in the training data and lower uncertainty for those inputs that are more probable. To operationalize this criterion, we develop the density uncertainty layer, an architectural element for a stochastic neural network that guarantees that the density uncertain criterion is satisfied. We study neural networks with density uncertainty layers on the CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100 uncertainty benchmarks. Compared to existing approaches, we find that density uncertainty layers provide reliable uncertainty estimates and robust out-of-distribution detection performance.