We study optimality for the safety-constrained Markov decision process which is the underlying framework for safe reinforcement learning. Specifically, we consider a constrained Markov decision process (with finite states and finite actions) where the goal of the decision maker is to reach a target set while avoiding an unsafe set(s) with certain probabilistic guarantees. Therefore the underlying Markov chain for any control policy will be multichain since by definition there exists a target set and an unsafe set. The decision maker also has to be optimal (with respect to a cost function) while navigating to the target set. This gives rise to a multi-objective optimization problem. We highlight the fact that Bellman's principle of optimality may not hold for constrained Markov decision problems with an underlying multichain structure (as shown by the counterexample due to Haviv. We resolve the counterexample by formulating the aforementioned multi-objective optimization problem as a zero-sum game and thereafter construct an asynchronous value iteration scheme for the Lagrangian (similar to Shapley's algorithm). Finally, we consider the reinforcement learning problem for the same and construct a modified $Q$-learning algorithm for learning the Lagrangian from data. We also provide a lower bound on the number of iterations required for learning the Lagrangian and corresponding error bounds.

A dynamic mean field theory is developed for finite state and action Bayesian reinforcement learning in the large state space limit. In an analogy with statistical physics, the Bellman equation is studied as a disordered dynamical system; the Markov decision process transition probabilities are interpreted as couplings and the value functions as deterministic spins that evolve dynamically. Thus, the mean-rewards and transition probabilities are considered to be quenched random variables. The theory reveals that, under certain assumptions, the state-action values are statistically independent across state-action pairs in the asymptotic state space limit, and provides the form of the distribution exactly. The results hold in the finite and discounted infinite horizon settings, for both value iteration and policy evaluation. The state-action value statistics can be computed from a set of mean field equations, which we call dynamic mean field programming (DMFP). For policy evaluation the equations are exact. For value iteration, approximate equations are obtained by appealing to extreme value theory or bounds. The result provides analytic insight into the statistical structure of tabular reinforcement learning, for example revealing the conditions under which reinforcement learning is equivalent to a set of independent multi-armed bandit problems.

Handwriting recognition has seen significant success with the use of deep learning. However, a persistent shortcoming of neural networks is that they are not well-equipped to deal with shifting data distributions. In the field of handwritten text recognition (HTR), this shows itself in poor recognition accuracy for writers that are not similar to those seen during training. An ideal HTR model should be adaptive to new writing styles in order to handle the vast amount of possible writing styles. In this paper, we explore how HTR models can be made writer adaptive by using only a handful of examples from a new writer (e.g., 16 examples) for adaptation. Two HTR architectures are used as base models, using a ResNet backbone along with either an LSTM or Transformer sequence decoder. Using these base models, two methods are considered to make them writer adaptive: 1) model-agnostic meta-learning (MAML), an algorithm commonly used for tasks such as few-shot classification, and 2) writer codes, an idea originating from automatic speech recognition. Results show that an HTR-specific version of MAML known as MetaHTR improves performance compared to the baseline with a 1.4 to 2.0 improvement in word error rate (WER). The improvement due to writer adaptation is between 0.2 and 0.7 WER, where a deeper model seems to lend itself better to adaptation using MetaHTR than a shallower model. However, applying MetaHTR to larger HTR models or sentence-level HTR may become prohibitive due to its high computational and memory requirements. Lastly, writer codes based on learned features or Hinge statistical features did not lead to improved recognition performance.

Machine learning is increasingly deployed in safety-critical domains where robustness against adversarial attacks is crucial and erroneous predictions could lead to potentially catastrophic consequences. This highlights the need for learning systems to be equipped with the means to determine a model's confidence in its prediction and the epistemic uncertainty associated with it, 'to know when a model does not know'. In this paper, we propose a novel Random-Set Convolutional Neural Network (RS-CNN) for classification which predicts belief functions rather than probability vectors over the set of classes, using the mathematics of random sets, i.e., distributions over the power set of the sample space. Based on the epistemic deep learning approach, random-set models are capable of representing the 'epistemic' uncertainty induced in machine learning by limited training sets. We estimate epistemic uncertainty by approximating the size of credal sets associated with the predicted belief functions, and experimentally demonstrate how our approach outperforms competing uncertainty-aware approaches in a classical evaluation setting. The performance of RS-CNN is best demonstrated on OOD samples where it manages to capture the true prediction while standard CNNs fail.

A paradigm put forth by E. Schr\"odinger in 1931/32, known as Schr\"odinger bridges, represents a formalism to pose and solve control and estimation problems seeking a perturbation from an initial control schedule (in the case of control), or from a prior probability law (in the case of estimation), sufficient to reconcile data in the form of marginal distributions and minimal in the sense of relative entropy to the prior. In the same spirit, we consider traffic-flow and apply a Schr\"odinger-type dictum, to perturb minimally with respect to a suitable relative entropy functional a prior schedule/law so as to reconcile the traffic flow with scarce aggregate distributions on families of indistinguishable individuals. Specifically, we consider the problem to regulate/estimate multi-commodity network flow rates based only on empirical distributions of commodities being transported (e.g., types of vehicles through a network, in motion) at two given times. Thus, building on Schr\"odinger's large deviation rationale, we develop a method to identify {\em the most likely flow rates (traffic flow)}, given prior information and aggregate observations. Our method further extends the Schr\"odinger bridge formalism to the multi-commodity setting, allowing commodities to exit or enter the flow field as well (e.g., vehicles to enter and stop and park) at any time. The behavior of entering or exiting the flow field, by commodities or vehicles, is modeled by a Markov chains with killing and creation states. Our method is illustrated with a numerical experiment.

Multi-agent influence diagrams (MAIDs) are a popular game-theoretic model based on Bayesian networks. In some settings, MAIDs offer significant advantages over extensive-form game representations. Previous work on MAIDs has assumed that agents employ behavioural policies, which set independent conditional probability distributions over actions for each of their decisions. In settings with imperfect recall, however, a Nash equilibrium in behavioural policies may not exist. We overcome this by showing how to solve MAIDs with forgetful and absent-minded agents using mixed policies and two types of correlated equilibrium. We also analyse the computational complexity of key decision problems in MAIDs, and explore tractable cases. Finally, we describe applications of MAIDs to Markov games and team situations, where imperfect recall is often unavoidable.

The Free Energy Principle (FEP) describes (biological) agents as minimising a variational Free Energy (FE) with respect to a generative model of their environment. Active Inference (AIF) is a corollary of the FEP that describes how agents explore and exploit their environment by minimising an expected FE objective. In two related papers, we describe a scalable, epistemic approach to synthetic AIF agents, by message passing on free-form Forney-style Factor Graphs (FFGs). A companion paper (part I) introduces a Constrained FFG (CFFG) notation that visually represents (generalised) FE objectives for AIF. The current paper (part II) derives message passing algorithms that minimise (generalised) FE objectives on a CFFG by variational calculus. A comparison between simulated Bethe and generalised FE agents illustrates how synthetic AIF induces epistemic behaviour on a T-maze navigation task. With a full message passing account of synthetic AIF agents, it becomes possible to derive and reuse message updates across models and move closer to industrial applications of synthetic AIF.

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a class of black-box, surrogate-based heuristics that can efficiently optimize problems that are expensive to evaluate, and hence admit only small evaluation budgets. BO is particularly popular for solving numerical optimization problems in industry, where the evaluation of objective functions often relies on time-consuming simulations or physical experiments. However, many industrial problems depend on a large number of parameters. This poses a challenge for BO algorithms, whose performance is often reported to suffer when the dimension grows beyond 15 variables. Although many new algorithms have been proposed to address this problem, it is not well understood which one is the best for which optimization scenario. In this work, we compare five state-of-the-art high-dimensional BO algorithms, with vanilla BO and CMA-ES on the 24 BBOB functions of the COCO environment at increasing dimensionality, ranging from 10 to 60 variables. Our results confirm the superiority of BO over CMA-ES for limited evaluation budgets and suggest that the most promising approach to improve BO is the use of trust regions. However, we also observe significant performance differences for different function landscapes and budget exploitation phases, indicating improvement potential, e.g., through hybridization of algorithmic components.

Weighted finite-state automata (WSFAs) are commonly used in NLP. Failure transitions are a useful extension for compactly representing backoffs or interpolation in $n$-gram models and CRFs, which are special cases of WFSAs. The pathsum in ordinary acyclic WFSAs is efficiently computed by the backward algorithm in time $O(|E|)$, where $E$ is the set of transitions. However, this does not allow failure transitions, and preprocessing the WFSA to eliminate failure transitions could greatly increase $|E|$. We extend the backward algorithm to handle failure transitions directly. Our approach is efficient when the average state has outgoing arcs for only a small fraction $s \ll 1$ of the alphabet $\Sigma$. We propose an algorithm for general acyclic WFSAs which runs in $O{\left(|E| + s |\Sigma| |Q| T_\text{max} \log{|\Sigma|}\right)}$, where $Q$ is the set of states and $T_\text{max}$ is the size of the largest connected component of failure transitions. When the failure transition topology satisfies a condition exemplified by CRFs, the $T_\text{max}$ factor can be dropped, and when the weight semiring is a ring, the $\log{|\Sigma|}$ factor can be dropped. In the latter case (ring-weighted acyclic WFSAs), we also give an alternative algorithm with complexity $\displaystyle O{\left(|E| + |\Sigma| |Q| \min(1,s\pi_\text{max}) \right)}$, where $\pi_\text{max}$ is the size of the longest failure path.

In the past two decades, most research on anomaly detection has focused on improving the accuracy of the detection, while largely ignoring the explainability of the corresponding methods and thus leaving the explanation of outcomes to practitioners. As anomaly detection algorithms are increasingly used in safety-critical domains, providing explanations for the high-stakes decisions made in those domains has become an ethical and regulatory requirement. Therefore, this work provides a comprehensive and structured survey on state-of-the-art explainable anomaly detection techniques. We propose a taxonomy based on the main aspects that characterize each explainable anomaly detection technique, aiming to help practitioners and researchers find the explainable anomaly detection method that best suits their needs.