Learning Graphical Models
Towards Trustworthy and Aligned Machine Learning: A Data-centric Survey with Causality Perspectives
Liu, Haoyang, Chaudhary, Maheep, Wang, Haohan
The trustworthiness of machine learning has emerged as a critical topic in the field, encompassing various applications and research areas such as robustness, security, interpretability, and fairness. The last decade saw the development of numerous methods addressing these challenges. In this survey, we systematically review these advancements from a data-centric perspective, highlighting the shortcomings of traditional empirical risk minimization (ERM) training in handling challenges posed by the data. Interestingly, we observe a convergence of these methods, despite being developed independently across trustworthy machine learning subfields. Pearl's hierarchy of causality offers a unifying framework for these techniques. Accordingly, this survey presents the background of trustworthy machine learning development using a unified set of concepts, connects this language to Pearl's causal hierarchy, and finally discusses methods explicitly inspired by causality literature. We provide a unified language with mathematical vocabulary to link these methods across robustness, adversarial robustness, interpretability, and fairness, fostering a more cohesive understanding of the field. Further, we explore the trustworthiness of large pretrained models. After summarizing dominant techniques like fine-tuning, parameter-efficient fine-tuning, prompting, and reinforcement learning with human feedback, we draw connections between them and the standard ERM. This connection allows us to build upon the principled understanding of trustworthy methods, extending it to these new techniques in large pretrained models, paving the way for future methods. Existing methods under this perspective are also reviewed. Lastly, we offer a brief summary of the applications of these methods and discuss potential future aspects related to our survey. For more information, please visit http://trustai.one.
Uncertainty-aware Gaussian Mixture Model for UWB Time Difference of Arrival Localization in Cluttered Environments
Zhao, Wenda, Goudar, Abhishek, Tang, Mingliang, Qiao, Xinyuan, Schoellig, Angela P.
Ultra-wideband (UWB) time difference of arrival(TDOA)-based localization has emerged as a low-cost and scalable indoor positioning solution. However, in cluttered environments, the performance of UWB TDOA-based localization deteriorates due to the biased and non-Gaussian noise distributions induced by obstacles. In this work, we present a bi-level optimization-based joint localization and noise model learning algorithm to address this problem. In particular, we use a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) to approximate the measurement noise distribution. We explicitly incorporate the estimated state's uncertainty into the GMM noise model learning, referred to as uncertainty-aware GMM, to improve both noise modeling and localization performance. We first evaluate the GMM noise model learning and localization performance in numerous simulation scenarios. We then demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm in extensive real-world experiments using two different cluttered environments. We show that our algorithm provides accurate position estimates with low-cost UWB sensors, no prior knowledge about the obstacles in the space, and a significant amount of UWB radios occluded.
Identification of Driving Heterogeneity using Action-chains
Yao, Xue, Calvert, Simeon C., Hoogendoorn, Serge P.
Current approaches to identifying driving heterogeneity face challenges in capturing the diversity of driving characteristics and understanding the fundamental patterns from a driving behaviour mechanism standpoint. This study introduces a comprehensive framework for identifying driving heterogeneity from an Action-chain perspective. First, a rule-based segmentation technique that considers the physical meanings of driving behaviour is proposed. Next, an Action phase Library including descriptions of various driving behaviour patterns is created based on the segmentation findings. The Action-chain concept is then introduced by implementing Action phase transition probability, followed by a method for evaluating driving heterogeneity. Employing real-world datasets for evaluation, our approach effectively identifies driving heterogeneity for both individual drivers and traffic flow while providing clear interpretations. These insights can aid the development of accurate driving behaviour theory and traffic flow models, ultimately benefiting traffic performance, and potentially leading to aspects such as improved road capacity and safety.
Proactive Resource Request for Disaster Response: A Deep Learning-based Optimization Model
Zhang, Hongzhe, Zhao, Xiaohang, Fang, Xiao, Chen, Bintong
Disaster response is critical to save lives and reduce damages in the aftermath of a disaster. Fundamental to disaster response operations is the management of disaster relief resources. To this end, a local agency (e.g., a local emergency resource distribution center) collects demands from local communities affected by a disaster, dispatches available resources to meet the demands, and requests more resources from a central emergency management agency (e.g., Federal Emergency Management Agency in the U.S.). Prior resource management research for disaster response overlooks the problem of deciding optimal quantities of resources requested by a local agency. In response to this research gap, we define a new resource management problem that proactively decides optimal quantities of requested resources by considering both currently unfulfilled demands and future demands. To solve the problem, we take salient characteristics of the problem into consideration and develop a novel deep learning method for future demand prediction. We then formulate the problem as a stochastic optimization model, analyze key properties of the model, and propose an effective solution method to the problem based on the analyzed properties. We demonstrate the superior performance of our method over prevalent existing methods using both real world and simulated data. We also show its superiority over prevalent existing methods in a multi-stakeholder and multi-objective setting through simulations.
Causal Inference for Banking Finance and Insurance A Survey
Kumar, Satyam, Vivek, Yelleti, Ravi, Vadlamani, Bose, Indranil
Causal Inference plays an significant role in explaining the decisions taken by statistical models and artificial intelligence models. Of late, this field started attracting the attention of researchers and practitioners alike. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of 37 papers published during 1992-2023 and concerning the application of causal inference to banking, finance, and insurance. The papers are categorized according to the following families of domains: (i) Banking, (ii) Finance and its subdomains such as corporate finance, governance finance including financial risk and financial policy, financial economics, and Behavioral finance, and (iii) Insurance. Further, the paper covers the primary ingredients of causal inference namely, statistical methods such as Bayesian Causal Network, Granger Causality and jargon used thereof such as counterfactuals. The review also recommends some important directions for future research. In conclusion, we observed that the application of causal inference in the banking and insurance sectors is still in its infancy, and thus more research is possible to turn it into a viable method.
Causal-learn: Causal Discovery in Python
Zheng, Yujia, Huang, Biwei, Chen, Wei, Ramsey, Joseph, Gong, Mingming, Cai, Ruichu, Shimizu, Shohei, Spirtes, Peter, Zhang, Kun
Causal discovery aims at revealing causal relations from observational data, which is a fundamental task in science and engineering. We describe $\textit{causal-learn}$, an open-source Python library for causal discovery. This library focuses on bringing a comprehensive collection of causal discovery methods to both practitioners and researchers. It provides easy-to-use APIs for non-specialists, modular building blocks for developers, detailed documentation for learners, and comprehensive methods for all. Different from previous packages in R or Java, $\textit{causal-learn}$ is fully developed in Python, which could be more in tune with the recent preference shift in programming languages within related communities. The library is available at https://github.com/py-why/causal-learn.
Machine Learning-Aided Efficient Decoding of Reed-Muller Subcodes
Jamali, Mohammad Vahid, Liu, Xiyang, Makkuva, Ashok Vardhan, Mahdavifar, Hessam, Oh, Sewoong, Viswanath, Pramod
Reed-Muller (RM) codes achieve the capacity of general binary-input memoryless symmetric channels and are conjectured to have a comparable performance to that of random codes in terms of scaling laws. However, such results are established assuming maximum-likelihood decoders for general code parameters. Also, RM codes only admit limited sets of rates. Efficient decoders such as successive cancellation list (SCL) decoder and recently-introduced recursive projection-aggregation (RPA) decoders are available for RM codes at finite lengths. In this paper, we focus on subcodes of RM codes with flexible rates. We first extend the RPA decoding algorithm to RM subcodes. To lower the complexity of our decoding algorithm, referred to as subRPA, we investigate different approaches to prune the projections. Next, we derive the soft-decision based version of our algorithm, called soft-subRPA, that not only improves upon the performance of subRPA but also enables a differentiable decoding algorithm. Building upon the soft-subRPA algorithm, we then provide a framework for training a machine learning (ML) model to search for \textit{good} sets of projections that minimize the decoding error rate. Training our ML model enables achieving very close to the performance of full-projection decoding with a significantly smaller number of projections. We also show that the choice of the projections in decoding RM subcodes matters significantly, and our ML-aided projection pruning scheme is able to find a \textit{good} selection, i.e., with negligible performance degradation compared to the full-projection case, given a reasonable number of projections.
Uncertainty in Real-Time Semantic Segmentation on Embedded Systems
Application for semantic segmentation models in areas such as autonomous vehicles and human computer interaction require real-time predictive capabilities. The challenges of addressing real-time application is amplified by the need to operate on resource constrained hardware. Whilst development of real-time methods for these platforms has increased, these models are unable to sufficiently reason about uncertainty present when applied on embedded real-time systems. This paper addresses this by combining deep feature extraction from pre-trained models with Bayesian regression and moment propagation for uncertainty aware predictions. We demonstrate how the proposed method can yield meaningful epistemic uncertainty on embedded hardware in real-time whilst maintaining predictive performance.
CLGT: A Graph Transformer for Student Performance Prediction in Collaborative Learning
Peng, Tianhao, Liang, Yu, Wu, Wenjun, Ren, Jian, Pengrui, Zhao, Pu, Yanjun
Modeling and predicting the performance of students in collaborative learning paradigms is an important task. Most of the research presented in literature regarding collaborative learning focuses on the discussion forums and social learning networks. There are only a few works that investigate how students interact with each other in team projects and how such interactions affect their academic performance. In order to bridge this gap, we choose a software engineering course as the study subject. The students who participate in a software engineering course are required to team up and complete a software project together. In this work, we construct an interaction graph based on the activities of students grouped in various teams. Based on this student interaction graph, we present an extended graph transformer framework for collaborative learning (CLGT) for evaluating and predicting the performance of students. Moreover, the proposed CLGT contains an interpretation module that explains the prediction results and visualizes the student interaction patterns. The experimental results confirm that the proposed CLGT outperforms the baseline models in terms of performing predictions based on the real-world datasets. Moreover, the proposed CLGT differentiates the students with poor performance in the collaborative learning paradigm and gives teachers early warnings, so that appropriate assistance can be provided.
Robust Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning with State Uncertainty
He, Sihong, Han, Songyang, Su, Sanbao, Han, Shuo, Zou, Shaofeng, Miao, Fei
In real-world multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) applications, agents may not have perfect state information (e.g., due to inaccurate measurement or malicious attacks), which challenges the robustness of agents' policies. Though robustness is getting important in MARL deployment, little prior work has studied state uncertainties in MARL, neither in problem formulation nor algorithm design. Motivated by this robustness issue and the lack of corresponding studies, we study the problem of MARL with state uncertainty in this work. We provide the first attempt to the theoretical and empirical analysis of this challenging problem. We first model the problem as a Markov Game with state perturbation adversaries (MG-SPA) by introducing a set of state perturbation adversaries into a Markov Game. We then introduce robust equilibrium (RE) as the solution concept of an MG-SPA. We conduct a fundamental analysis regarding MG-SPA such as giving conditions under which such a robust equilibrium exists. Then we propose a robust multi-agent Q-learning (RMAQ) algorithm to find such an equilibrium, with convergence guarantees. To handle high-dimensional state-action space, we design a robust multi-agent actor-critic (RMAAC) algorithm based on an analytical expression of the policy gradient derived in the paper. Our experiments show that the proposed RMAQ algorithm converges to the optimal value function; our RMAAC algorithm outperforms several MARL and robust MARL methods in multiple multi-agent environments when state uncertainty is present. The source code is public on \url{https://github.com/sihongho/robust_marl_with_state_uncertainty}.