In modern industries, fault diagnosis has been widely applied with the goal of realizing predictive maintenance. The key issue for the fault diagnosis system is to extract representative characteristics of the fault signal and then accurately predict the fault type. In this paper, we propose a Causal Disentanglement Hidden Markov model (CDHM) to learn the causality in the bearing fault mechanism and thus, capture their characteristics to achieve a more robust representation. Specifically, we make full use of the time-series data and progressively disentangle the vibration signal into fault-relevant and fault-irrelevant factors. The ELBO is reformulated to optimize the learning of the causal disentanglement Markov model. Moreover, to expand the scope of the application, we adopt unsupervised domain adaptation to transfer the learned disentangled representations to other working environments. Experiments were conducted on the CWRU dataset and IMS dataset. Relevant results validate the superiority of the proposed method.

Learning multiple gaits is non-trivial for legged robots, especially when encountering different terrains and velocity commands. In this work, we present an end-to-end training framework for learning multiple gaits for quadruped robots, tailored to the needs of robust locomotion, agile locomotion, and user's commands. A latent space is constructed concurrently by a gait encoder and a gait generator, which helps the agent to reuse multiple gait skills to achieve adaptive gait behaviors. To learn natural behaviors for multiple gaits, we design gait-dependent rewards that are constructed explicitly from gait parameters and implicitly from conditional adversarial motion priors (CAMP). We demonstrate such multiple gaits control on a quadruped robot Go1 with only proprioceptive sensors.

In data-driven stochastic optimization, model parameters of the underlying distribution need to be estimated from data in addition to the optimization task. Recent literature considers integrating the estimation and optimization processes by selecting model parameters that lead to the best empirical objective performance. This integrated approach, which we call integrated-estimation-optimization (IEO), can be readily shown to outperform simple estimate-then-optimize (ETO) when the model is misspecified. In this paper, we show that a reverse behavior appears when the model class is well-specified and there is sufficient data. Specifically, for a general class of nonlinear stochastic optimization problems, we show that simple ETO outperforms IEO asymptotically when the model class covers the ground truth, in the strong sense of stochastic dominance of the regret. Namely, the entire distribution of the regret, not only its mean or other moments, is always better for ETO compared to IEO. Our results also apply to constrained, contextual optimization problems where the decision depends on observed features. Whenever applicable, we also demonstrate how standard sample average approximation (SAA) performs the worst when the model class is well-specified in terms of regret, and best when it is misspecified. Finally, we provide experimental results to support our theoretical comparisons and illustrate when our insights hold in finite-sample regimes and under various degrees of misspecification.

Variational inference has recently emerged as a popular alternative to the classical Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in large-scale Bayesian inference. The core idea is to trade statistical accuracy for computational efficiency. In this work, we study these statistical and computational trade-offs in variational inference via a case study in inferential model selection. Focusing on Gaussian inferential models (or variational approximating families) with diagonal plus low-rank precision matrices, we initiate a theoretical study of the trade-offs in two aspects, Bayesian posterior inference error and frequentist uncertainty quantification error. From the Bayesian posterior inference perspective, we characterize the error of the variational posterior relative to the exact posterior. We prove that, given a fixed computation budget, a lower-rank inferential model produces variational posteriors with a higher statistical approximation error, but a lower computational error; it reduces variance in stochastic optimization and, in turn, accelerates convergence. From the frequentist uncertainty quantification perspective, we consider the precision matrix of the variational posterior as an uncertainty estimate, which involves an additional statistical error originating from the sampling uncertainty of the data. As a consequence, for small datasets, the inferential model need not be full-rank to achieve optimal estimation error (even with unlimited computation budget).

Collaborative robots require effective human intention estimation to safely and smoothly work with humans in less structured tasks such as industrial assembly, where human intention continuously changes. We propose the concept of intention tracking and introduce a collaborative robot system that concurrently tracks intentions at hierarchical levels. The high-level intention is tracked to estimate human's interaction pattern and enable robot to (1) avoid collision with human to minimize interruption and (2) assist human to correct failure. The low-level intention estimate provides robot with task-related information. We implement the system on a UR5e robot and demonstrate robust, seamless and ergonomic human-robot collaboration in an ablative pilot study of an assembly use case. Our robot demonstrations and videos are available at \url{https://sites.google.com/view/hierarchicalintentiontracking}.

Simulations using machine learning (ML) models and mechanistic models are often run to inform decision-making processes. Uncertainty estimates of simulation results are critical to the decision-making process because simulation results of specific scenarios may have wide, but unspecified, confidence bounds that may impact subsequent analyses and decisions. The objective of this work is to develop a protocol to assess uncertainties in predictions of machine learning and mechanistic simulation models. The protocol will outline an uncertainty quantification workflow that may be used to establish credible bounds of predictability on computed quantities of interest and to assess model sufficiency. The protocol identifies key sources of uncertainties in machine learning and mechanistic modeling, defines applicable methods of uncertainty propagation for these sources, and includes statistically rational estimators for output uncertainties. The work applies the protocol to test cases relevant to the gas distribution industry and presents learnings from its application. The paper concludes with a brief discussion outlining a pathway to the wider adoption of uncertainty quantification within the industry

As the prevalence of data analysis grows, safeguarding data privacy has become a paramount concern. Consequently, there has been an upsurge in the development of mechanisms aimed at privacy-preserving data analyses. However, these approaches are task-specific; designing algorithms for new tasks is a cumbersome process. As an alternative, one can create synthetic data that is (ideally) devoid of private information. This paper focuses on privacy-preserving data synthesis (PPDS) by providing a comprehensive overview, analysis, and discussion of the field. Specifically, we put forth a master recipe that unifies two prominent strands of research in PPDS: statistical methods and deep learning (DL)-based methods. Under the master recipe, we further dissect the statistical methods into choices of modeling and representation, and investigate the DL-based methods by different generative modeling principles. To consolidate our findings, we provide comprehensive reference tables, distill key takeaways, and identify open problems in the existing literature. In doing so, we aim to answer the following questions: What are the design principles behind different PPDS methods? How can we categorize these methods, and what are the advantages and disadvantages associated with each category? Can we provide guidelines for method selection in different real-world scenarios? We proceed to benchmark several prominent DL-based methods on the task of private image synthesis and conclude that DP-MERF is an all-purpose approach. Finally, upon systematizing the work over the past decade, we identify future directions and call for actions from researchers.

Context: User intent modeling is a crucial process in Natural Language Processing that aims to identify the underlying purpose behind a user's request, enabling personalized responses. With a vast array of approaches introduced in the literature (over 13,000 papers in the last decade), understanding the related concepts and commonly used models in AI-based systems is essential. Method: We conducted a systematic literature review to gather data on models typically employed in designing conversational recommender systems. From the collected data, we developed a decision model to assist researchers in selecting the most suitable models for their systems. Additionally, we performed two case studies to evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed decision model. Results: Our study analyzed 59 distinct models and identified 74 commonly used features. We provided insights into potential model combinations, trends in model selection, quality concerns, evaluation measures, and frequently used datasets for training and evaluating these models. Contribution: Our study contributes practical insights and a comprehensive understanding of user intent modeling, empowering the development of more effective and personalized conversational recommender systems. With the Conversational Recommender System, researchers can perform a more systematic and efficient assessment of fitting intent modeling frameworks.

The capability to generate responses with diversity and faithfulness using factual knowledge is paramount for creating a human-like, trustworthy dialogue system. Common strategies either adopt a two-step paradigm, which optimizes knowledge selection and response generation separately, and may overlook the inherent correlation between these two tasks, or leverage conditional variational method to jointly optimize knowledge selection and response generation by employing an inference network. In this paper, we present an end-to-end learning framework, termed Sequential Posterior Inference (SPI), capable of selecting knowledge and generating dialogues by approximately sampling from the posterior distribution. Unlike other methods, SPI does not require the inference network or assume a simple geometry of the posterior distribution. This straightforward and intuitive inference procedure of SPI directly queries the response generation model, allowing for accurate knowledge selection and generation of faithful responses. In addition to modeling contributions, our experimental results on two common dialogue datasets (Wizard of Wikipedia and Holl-E) demonstrate that SPI outperforms previous strong baselines according to both automatic and human evaluation metrics.

Developing robot controllers capable of achieving dexterous nonprehensile manipulation, such as pushing an object on a table, is challenging. The underactuated and hybrid-dynamics nature of the problem, further complicated by the uncertainty resulting from the frictional interactions, requires sophisticated control behaviors. Reinforcement Learning (RL) is a powerful framework for developing such robot controllers. However, previous RL literature addressing the nonprehensile pushing task achieves low accuracy, non-smooth trajectories, and only simple motions, i.e. without rotation of the manipulated object. We conjecture that previously used unimodal exploration strategies fail to capture the inherent hybrid-dynamics of the task, arising from the different possible contact interaction modes between the robot and the object, such as sticking, sliding, and separation. In this work, we propose a multimodal exploration approach through categorical distributions, which enables us to train planar pushing RL policies for arbitrary starting and target object poses, i.e. positions and orientations, and with improved accuracy. We show that the learned policies are robust to external disturbances and observation noise, and scale to tasks with multiple pushers. Furthermore, we validate the transferability of the learned policies, trained entirely in simulation, to a physical robot hardware using the KUKA iiwa robot arm. See our supplemental video: https://youtu.be/vTdva1mgrk4.