Learning Graphical Models
PAC-Bayesian Generalization Guarantees for Fairness on Stochastic and Deterministic Classifiers
Bastian, Julien, Leblanc, Benjamin, Germain, Pascal, Habrard, Amaury, Largeron, Christine, Metzler, Guillaume, Morvant, Emilie, Viallard, Paul
Classical PAC generalization bounds on the prediction risk of a classifier are insufficient to provide theoretical guarantees on fairness when the goal is to learn models balancing predictive risk and fairness constraints. We propose a PAC-Bayesian framework for deriving generalization bounds for fairness, covering both stochastic and deterministic classifiers. For stochastic classifiers, we derive a fairness bound using standard PAC-Bayes techniques. Whereas for deterministic classifiers, as usual PAC-Bayes arguments do not apply directly, we leverage a recent advance in PAC-Bayes to extend the fairness bound beyond the stochastic setting. Our framework has two advantages: (i) It applies to a broad class of fairness measures that can be expressed as a risk discrepancy, and (ii) it leads to a self-bounding algorithm in which the learning procedure directly optimizes a trade-off between generalization bounds on the prediction risk and on the fairness. We empirically evaluate our framework with three classical fairness measures, demonstrating not only its usefulness but also the tightness of our bounds.
Empirical Gaussian Processes
Lin, Jihao Andreas, Ament, Sebastian, Tiao, Louis C., Eriksson, David, Balandat, Maximilian, Bakshy, Eytan
Gaussian processes (GPs) are powerful and widely used probabilistic regression models, but their effectiveness in practice is often limited by the choice of kernel function. This kernel function is typically handcrafted from a small set of standard functions, a process that requires expert knowledge, results in limited adaptivity to data, and imposes strong assumptions on the hypothesis space. We study Empirical GPs, a principled framework for constructing flexible, data-driven GP priors that overcome these limitations. Rather than relying on standard parametric kernels, we estimate the mean and covariance functions empirically from a corpus of historical observations, enabling the prior to reflect rich, non-trivial covariance structures present in the data. Theoretically, we show that the resulting model converges to the GP that is closest (in KL-divergence sense) to the real data generating process. Practically, we formulate the problem of learning the GP prior from independent datasets as likelihood estimation and derive an Expectation-Maximization algorithm with closed-form updates, allowing the model handle heterogeneous observation locations across datasets. We demonstrate that Empirical GPs achieve competitive performance on learning curve extrapolation and time series forecasting benchmarks.
Provable Offline Reinforcement Learning for Structured Cyclic MDPs
Lee, Kyungbok, Sarteau, Angelica Cristello, Kosorok, Michael R.
We introduce a novel cyclic Markov decision process (MDP) framework for multi-step decision problems with heterogeneous stage-specific dynamics, transitions, and discount factors across the cycle. In this setting, offline learning is challenging: optimizing a policy at any stage shifts the state distributions of subsequent stages, propagating mismatch across the cycle. To address this, we propose a modular structural framework that decomposes the cyclic process into stage-wise sub-problems. While generally applicable, we instantiate this principle as CycleFQI, an extension of fitted Q-iteration enabling theoretical analysis and interpretation. It uses a vector of stage-specific Q-functions, tailored to each stage, to capture within-stage sequences and transitions between stages. This modular design enables partial control, allowing some stages to be optimized while others follow predefined policies. We establish finite-sample suboptimality error bounds and derive global convergence rates under Besov regularity, demonstrating that CycleFQI mitigates the curse of dimensionality compared to monolithic baselines. Additionally, we propose a sieve-based method for asymptotic inference of optimal policy values under a margin condition. Experiments on simulated and real-world Type 1 Diabetes data sets demonstrate CycleFQI's effectiveness.