We present a generalized linear structural causal model, coupled with a novel data-adaptive linear regularization, to recover causal directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) from time series. By leveraging a recently developed stochastic monotone Variational Inequality (VI) formulation, we cast the causal discovery problem as a general convex optimization. Furthermore, we develop a non-asymptotic recovery guarantee and quantifiable uncertainty by solving a linear program to establish confidence intervals for a wide range of non-linear monotone link functions. We validate our theoretical results and show the competitive performance of our method via extensive numerical experiments. Most importantly, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in recovering highly interpretable causal DAGs over Sepsis Associated Derangements (SADs) while achieving comparable prediction performance to powerful ``black-box'' models such as XGBoost. Thus, the future adoption of our proposed method to conduct continuous surveillance of high-risk patients by clinicians is much more likely.

The study of complex networks has significantly advanced our understanding of community structures which serves as a crucial feature of real-world graphs. Detecting communities in graphs is a challenging problem with applications in sociology, biology, and computer science. Despite the efforts of an interdisciplinary community of scientists, a satisfactory solution to this problem has not yet been achieved. This review article delves into the topic of community detection in graphs, which serves as a crucial role in understanding the organization and functioning of complex systems. We begin by introducing the concept of community structure, which refers to the arrangement of vertices into clusters, with strong internal connections and weaker connections between clusters. Then, we provide a thorough exposition of various community detection methods, including a new method designed by us. Additionally, we explore real-world applications of community detection in diverse networks. In conclusion, this comprehensive review provides a deep understanding of community detection in graphs. It serves as a valuable resource for researchers and practitioners in multiple disciplines, offering insights into the challenges, methodologies, and applications of community detection in complex networks.

In many multi-agent and high-dimensional robotic tasks, the controller can be designed in either a centralized or decentralized way. Correspondingly, it is possible to use either single-agent reinforcement learning (SARL) or multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) methods to learn such controllers. However, the relationship between these two paradigms remains under-studied in the literature. This work explores research questions in terms of robustness and performance of SARL and MARL approaches to the same task, in order to gain insight into the most suitable methods. We start by analytically showing the equivalence between these two paradigms under the full-state observation assumption. Then, we identify a broad subclass of \textit{Dec-POMDP} tasks where the agents are weakly or partially interacting. In these tasks, we show that partial observations of each agent are sufficient for near-optimal decision-making. Furthermore, we propose to exploit such partially observable MARL to improve the robustness of robots when joint or agent failures occur. Our experiments on both simulated multi-agent tasks and a real robot task with a mobile manipulator validate the presented insights and the effectiveness of the proposed robust robot learning method via partially observable MARL.

Trajectory prediction (TP) plays an important role in supporting the decision-making of Air Traffic Controllers (ATCOs). Traditional TP methods are deterministic and physics-based, with parameters that are calibrated using aircraft surveillance data harvested across the world. These models are, therefore, agnostic to the intentions of the pilots and ATCOs, which can have a significant effect on the observed trajectory, particularly in the lateral plane. This work proposes a generative method for lateral TP, using probabilistic machine learning to model the effect of the epistemic uncertainty arising from the unknown effect of pilot behaviour and ATCO intentions. The models are trained to be specific to a particular sector, allowing local procedures such as coordinated entry and exit points to be modelled. A dataset comprising a week's worth of aircraft surveillance data, passing through a busy sector of the United Kingdom's upper airspace, was used to train and test the models. Specifically, a piecewise linear model was used as a functional, low-dimensional representation of the ground tracks, with its control points determined by a generative model conditioned on partial context. It was found that, of the investigated models, a Bayesian Neural Network using the Laplace approximation was able to generate the most plausible trajectories in order to emulate the flow of traffic through the sector.

Stochastic optimization methods such as mirror descent have wide applications due to low computational cost. Those methods have been well studied under assumption of the independent and identical distribution, and usually achieve sublinear rate of convergence. However, this assumption may be too strong and unpractical in real application scenarios. Recent researches investigate stochastic gradient descent when instances are sampled from a Markov chain. Unfortunately, few results are known for stochastic mirror descent. In the paper, we propose a new version of stochastic mirror descent termed by MarchOn in the scenario of the federated learning. Given a distributed network, the model iteratively travels from a node to one of its neighbours randomly. Furthermore, we propose a new framework to analyze MarchOn, which yields best rates of convergence for convex, strongly convex, and non-convex loss. Finally, we conduct empirical studies to evaluate the convergence of MarchOn, and validate theoretical results.

The recent success of neural networks in pattern recognition and classification problems suggests that neural networks possess qualities distinct from other more classical classifiers such as SVMs or boosting classifiers. This paper studies the performance of plug-in classifiers based on neural networks in a binary classification setting as measured by their excess risks. Compared to the typical settings imposed in the literature, we consider a more general scenario that resembles actual practice in two respects: first, the function class to be approximated includes the Barron functions as a proper subset, and second, the neural network classifier constructed is the minimizer of a surrogate loss instead of the $0$-$1$ loss so that gradient descent-based numerical optimizations can be easily applied. While the class of functions we consider is quite large that optimal rates cannot be faster than $n^{-\frac{1}{3}}$, it is a regime in which dimension-free rates are possible and approximation power of neural networks can be taken advantage of. In particular, we analyze the estimation and approximation properties of neural networks to obtain a dimension-free, uniform rate of convergence for the excess risk. Finally, we show that the rate obtained is in fact minimax optimal up to a logarithmic factor, and the minimax lower bound shows the effect of the margin assumption in this regime.

Pseudo-Labeling is a simple and effective approach to semi-supervised learning. It requires criteria that guide the selection of pseudo-labeled data. The latter have been shown to crucially affect pseudo-labeling's generalization performance. Several such criteria exist and were proven to work reasonably well in practice. However, their performance often depends on the initial model fit on labeled data. Early overfitting can be propagated to the final model by choosing instances with overconfident but wrong predictions, often called confirmation bias. In two recent works, we demonstrate that pseudo-label selection (PLS) can be naturally embedded into decision theory. This paves the way for BPLS, a Bayesian framework for PLS that mitigates the issue of confirmation bias. At its heart is a novel selection criterion: an analytical approximation of the posterior predictive of pseudo-samples and labeled data. We derive this selection criterion by proving Bayes-optimality of this "pseudo posterior predictive". We empirically assess BPLS for generalized linear, non-parametric generalized additive models and Bayesian neural networks on simulated and real-world data. When faced with data prone to overfitting and thus a high chance of confirmation bias, BPLS outperforms traditional PLS methods. The decision-theoretic embedding further allows us to render PLS more robust towards the involved modeling assumptions. To achieve this goal, we introduce a multi-objective utility function. We demonstrate that the latter can be constructed to account for different sources of uncertainty and explore three examples: model selection, accumulation of errors and covariate shift.

The proliferation and ubiquity of temporal data across many disciplines has sparked interest for similarity, classification and clustering methods specifically designed to handle time series data. A core issue when dealing with time series is determining their pairwise similarity, i.e., the degree to which a given time series resembles another. Traditional distance measures such as the Euclidean are not well-suited due to the time-dependent nature of the data. Elastic metrics such as dynamic time warping (DTW) offer a promising approach, but are limited by their computational complexity, non-differentiability and sensitivity to noise and outliers. This thesis proposes novel elastic alignment methods that use parametric \& diffeomorphic warping transformations as a means of overcoming the shortcomings of DTW-based metrics. The proposed method is differentiable \& invertible, well-suited for deep learning architectures, robust to noise and outliers, computationally efficient, and is expressive and flexible enough to capture complex patterns. Furthermore, a closed-form solution was developed for the gradient of these diffeomorphic transformations, which allows an efficient search in the parameter space, leading to better solutions at convergence. Leveraging the benefits of these closed-form diffeomorphic transformations, this thesis proposes a suite of advancements that include: (a) an enhanced temporal transformer network for time series alignment and averaging, (b) a deep-learning based time series classification model to simultaneously align and classify signals with high accuracy, (c) an incremental time series clustering algorithm that is warping-invariant, scalable and can operate under limited computational and time resources, and finally, (d) a normalizing flow model that enhances the flexibility of affine transformations in coupling and autoregressive layers.

Urban time series data forecasting featuring significant contributions to sustainable development is widely studied as an essential task of the smart city. However, with the dramatic and rapid changes in the world environment, the assumption that data obey Independent Identically Distribution is undermined by the subsequent changes in data distribution, known as concept drift, leading to weak replicability and transferability of the model over unseen data. To address the issue, previous approaches typically retrain the model, forcing it to fit the most recent observed data. However, retraining is problematic in that it leads to model lag, consumption of resources, and model re-invalidation, causing the drift problem to be not well solved in realistic scenarios. In this study, we propose a new urban time series prediction model for the concept drift problem, which encodes the drift by considering the periodicity in the data and makes on-the-fly adjustments to the model based on the drift using a meta-dynamic network. Experiments on real-world datasets show that our design significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods and can be well generalized to existing prediction backbones by reducing their sensitivity to distribution changes.

This chapter explores the complex realm of autonomous cars, analyzing their fundamental components and operational characteristics. The initial phase of the discussion is elucidating the internal mechanics of these automobiles, encompassing the crucial involvement of sensors, artificial intelligence (AI) identification systems, control mechanisms, and their integration with cloud-based servers within the framework of the Internet of Things (IoT). It delves into practical implementations of autonomous cars, emphasizing their utilization in forecasting traffic patterns and transforming the dynamics of transportation. The text also explores the topic of Robotic Process Automation (RPA), illustrating the impact of autonomous cars on different businesses through the automation of tasks. The primary focus of this investigation lies in the realm of cybersecurity, specifically in the context of autonomous vehicles. A comprehensive analysis will be conducted to explore various risk management solutions aimed at protecting these vehicles from potential threats including ethical, environmental, legal, professional, and social dimensions, offering a comprehensive perspective on their societal implications. A strategic plan for addressing the challenges and proposing strategies for effectively traversing the complex terrain of autonomous car systems, cybersecurity, hazards, and other concerns are some resources for acquiring an understanding of the intricate realm of autonomous cars and their ramifications in contemporary society, supported by a comprehensive compilation of resources for additional investigation. Keywords: RPA, Cyber Security, AV, Risk, Smart Cars