Mean-field variational inference (VI), despite its scalability, is limited by the independence assumption, making it unsuitable for scenarios with correlated data instances. Existing structured VI methods either focus on correlations among latent dimensions which lack scalability for modeling instance-level correlations, or are restricted to simple first-order dependencies, limiting their expressiveness. In this paper, we propose High-order Tree-structured Variational Inference (HoT-VI)2, that explicitly models k-order instance-level correlations among latent variables. By expressing the global posterior through overlapping k-dimensional local marginals, our method enables efficient parameterized sampling via a sequential procedure. To ensure the validity of these marginals, we introduce a conditional correlation parameterization method that guarantees positive definiteness of their correlation matrices. We further extend our method with a tree-structured backbone to capture more flexible dependency patterns. Extensive experiments on time-series and graphstructured datasets demonstrate that modeling higher-order correlations leads to significantly improved posterior approximations and better performance across various downstream tasks.

In-context learning (ICL) is a hallmark capability of transformers, through which trained models learn to adapt to new tasks by leveraging information from the input context. Prior work has shown that ICL emerges in transformers due to the presence of special circuits called induction heads. Given the equivalence between induction heads and conditional k-grams, a recent line of work modeling sequential inputs as Markov processes has revealed the fundamental impact of model depth on its ICL capabilities: while a two-layer transformer can efficiently represent a conditional 1-gram model, its single-layer counterpart cannot solve the task unless it is exponentially large. However, for higher order Markov sources, the best known constructions require at least three layers (each with a single attention head) -- leaving open the question: can a two-layer single-head transformer represent any kth-order Markov process? In this paper, we precisely address this and theoretically show that a two-layer transformer with one head per layer can indeed represent any conditional k-gram. Thus, our result provides the tightest known characterization of the interplay between transformer depth and Markov order for ICL. Building on this, we further analyze the learning dynamics of our two-layer construction, focusing on a simplified variant for first-order Markov chains, illustrating how effective in-context representations emerge during training. Together, these results deepen our current understanding of transformer-based ICL and illustrate how even shallow architectures can surprisingly exhibit strong ICL capabilities on structured sequence modeling tasks. Code is available at thelink.

In this paper, we consider a score-based Integer Programming (IP) approach for solving the Bayesian Network Structure Learning (BNSL) problem. State-of-theart BNSLIP formulations suffer from the exponentially large number of variables and constraints. A standard approach in IP to address such challenges is to employ row and column generation techniques, which dynamically generate rows and columns, while the complex pricing problem remains a computational bottleneck for BNSL. For the general class of ℓ0-penalized likelihood scores, we show how the pricing problem can be reformulated as a difference of submodular optimization problem, and how the Difference of Convex Algorithm (DCA) can be applied as an inexact method to efficiently solve the pricing problems. Empirically, we show that, for continuous Gaussian data, our row and column generation approach yields solutions with higher quality than state-of-the-art score-based approaches, especially when the graph density increases, and achieves comparable performance against benchmark constraint-based and hybrid approaches, even when the graph size increases.

Conditional sampling is a fundamental task in Bayesian statistics and generative modeling.

We analyze the global convergence of the single-timescale actor-critic (AC) algorithm for the infinite-horizon discounted Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with finite state spaces. To this end, we introduce an elegant analytical framework for handling complex, coupled recursions inherent in the algorithm. Leveraging this framework, we establish that the algorithm converges to an ϵ-close globally optimal policy with a sample complexity of O(ϵ 3). This significantly improves upon the existing complexity of O(ϵ 2)to achieve ϵ-close stationary policy, which is equivalent to the complexity of O(ϵ 4)to achieve ϵ-close globally optimal policy using gradient domination lemma.

We study the problem of learning a neural sampler to generate samples from discrete state spaces where the target probability mass function π e U is known up to a normalizing constant, which is an important task in fields such as statistical physics, machine learning, combinatorial optimization, etc. To better address this challenging task when the state space has a large cardinality and the distribution is multi-modal, we propose Masked Diffusion Neural Sampler (MDNS), a novel framework for training discrete neural samplers by aligning two path measures through a family of learning objectives, theoretically grounded in the stochastic optimal control of the continuous-time Markov chains. We validate the efficiency and scalability of MDNS through extensive experiments on various distributions with distinct statistical properties, where MDNS learns to accurately sample from the target distributions despite the extremely high problem dimensions and outperforms other learning-based baselines by a large margin. A comprehensive study of ablations and extensions is also provided to demonstrate the efficacy and potential of the proposed framework.

We develop practical and theoretically grounded membership inference attacks (MIAs) against both independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) data and graphstructured data. Building on the Bayesian decision-theoretic framework of [1], we derive the Bayes-optimal membership inference rule for node-level MIAs against graph neural networks, addressing key open questions about optimal query strategies in the graph setting. We introduce BASE and G-BASE, tractable approximations of the Bayes-optimal membership inference. G-BASE achieves superior performance compared to previously proposed classifier-based node-level MIA attacks. BASE, which is also applicable to non-graph data, matches or exceeds the performance of prior state-of-the-art MIAs, such as LiRA and RMIA, at a significantly lower computational cost. Finally, we show that BASE and RMIA are equivalent under a specific hyperparameter setting, providing a principled, Bayes-optimal justification for the RMIA attack.

Discrete diffusion models, like continuous diffusion models, generate high-quality samples by gradually undoing noise applied to datapoints with a Markov process. Gradual generation in theory comes with many conceptual benefits; for example, inductive biases can be incorporated into the noising Markov process, and access to improved sampling algorithms. In practice, however, the consistently best performing discrete diffusion model is, surprisingly, masking diffusion, which does not denoise gradually. Here we explain the superior performance of masking diffusion by noting that it makes use of a fundamental difference between continuous and discrete Markov processes: discrete Markov processes evolve by discontinuous jumps at a fixed rate and, unlike other discrete diffusion models, masking diffusion builds in the known distribution of jump times and only learns where to jump to. We show that we can similarly bake in the known distribution of jump times into any discrete diffusion model. The resulting models -- schedule-conditioned diffusion (SCUD) -- generalize classical discrete diffusion and masking diffusion. By applying SCUD to models with noising processes that incorporate inductive biases on images, text, and protein data, we build models that outperform masking.

Reinforcement learning (RL) post-training is crucial for LLM alignment and reasoning, but existing policy-based methods, such as PPO and DPO, can fall short of fixing shortcuts inherited from pre-training. In this work, we introduce Q, a value-based algorithm for KL-regularized RL that guides the reference policy using the optimal regularized Q function. We propose to learn the optimal Q function using distributional RL on an aggregated online dataset. Unlike prior value-based baselines that guide the model using unregularized Q-values, our method is theoretically principled and provably learns the optimal policy for the KL-regularized RL problem. Empirically, Q outperforms prior baselines in math reasoning benchmarks while maintaining a smaller KL divergence to the reference policy. Theoretically, we establish a reduction from KL-regularized RL to no-regret online learning, providing the first bounds for deterministic MDPs under only realizability. Thanks to distributional RL, our bounds are also variance-dependent and converge faster when the reference policy has small variance. In sum, our results highlight Q as an effective approach for post-training LLMs, offering both improved performance and theoretical guarantees. The code can be found at https://github.com/jinpz/q_sharp.

Diffusion models generate samples by estimating the score function of the target distribution at various noise levels. The model is trained using samples drawn from the target distribution, progressively adding noise. Previous sample complexity bounds have a polynomial dependence on the dimension d, apart from log(|H|), where H is the hypothesis class. In this work, we establish the first (nearly) dimension-free sample complexity bounds, modulo any dependence due to log(|H|), for learning these score functions, achieving a double exponential improvement in dimension over prior results. A key aspect of our analysis is to use a single function approximator to jointly estimate scores across noise levels, a critical feature in practice which enables generalization across timesteps. We introduce a novel martingale-based error decomposition and sharp variance bounds, enabling efficient learning from dependent data generated by Markov processes, which may be of independent interest. Building on these insights, we propose Bootstrapped Score Matching (BSM), a variance reduction technique that utilizes previously learned scores to improve accuracy at higher noise levels. These results provide crucial insights into the efficiency and effectiveness of diffusion models for generative modeling.