Machine learning models have undeniably achieved impressive performance across a range of applications. However, their often perceived black-box nature, and lack of transparency in decision-making, have raised concerns about understanding their predictions. To tackle this challenge, researchers have developed methods to provide explanations for machine learning models. In this paper, we introduce LaPLACE-explainer, designed to provide probabilistic cause-and-effect explanations for any classifier operating on tabular data, in a human-understandable manner. The LaPLACE-Explainer component leverages the concept of a Markov blanket to establish statistical boundaries between relevant and non-relevant features automatically. This approach results in the automatic generation of optimal feature subsets, serving as explanations for predictions. Importantly, this eliminates the need to predetermine a fixed number N of top features as explanations, enhancing the flexibility and adaptability of our methodology. Through the incorporation of conditional probabilities, our approach offers probabilistic causal explanations and outperforms LIME and SHAP (well-known model-agnostic explainers) in terms of local accuracy and consistency of explained features. LaPLACE's soundness, consistency, local accuracy, and adaptability are rigorously validated across various classification models. Furthermore, we demonstrate the practical utility of these explanations via experiments with both simulated and real-world datasets. This encompasses addressing trust-related issues, such as evaluating prediction reliability, facilitating model selection, enhancing trustworthiness, and identifying fairness-related concerns within classifiers.

Causal modelling offers great potential to provide autonomous agents the ability to understand the data-generation process that governs their interactions with the world. Such models capture formal knowledge as well as probabilistic representations of noise and uncertainty typically encountered by autonomous robots in real-world environments. Thus, causality can aid autonomous agents in making decisions and explaining outcomes, but deploying causality in such a manner introduces new challenges. Here we identify challenges relating to causality in the context of a drone system operating in a salt mine. Such environments are challenging for autonomous agents because of the presence of confounders, non-stationarity, and a difficulty in building complete causal models ahead of time. To address these issues, we propose a probabilistic causal framework consisting of: causally-informed POMDP planning, online SCM adaptation, and post-hoc counterfactual explanations. Further, we outline planned experimentation to evaluate the framework integrated with a drone system in simulated mine environments and on a real-world mine dataset.

Due to limited budgets allocated for road maintenance projects in various countries, road management departments face difficulties in making scientific maintenance decisions. This paper aims to provide road management departments with more scientific decision tools and evidence. The framework proposed in this paper mainly has the following four innovative points: 1) Predicting pavement performance deterioration levels of road sections as decision basis rather than accurately predicting specific indicator values; 2) Determining maintenance route priorities based on multiple factors; 3) Making maintenance plan decisions by establishing deep reinforcement learning models to formulate predictive strategies based on past maintenance performance evaluations, while considering both technical and management indicators; 4) Determining repair section priorities according to actual and suggested repair effects. By resolving these four issues, the framework can make intelligent decisions regarding optimal maintenance plans and sections, taking into account limited funds and historical maintenance management experiences.

As deep learning technology advances and more urban spatial-temporal data accumulates, an increasing number of deep learning models are being proposed to solve urban spatial-temporal prediction problems. However, there are limitations in the existing field, including open-source data being in various formats and difficult to use, few papers making their code and data openly available, and open-source models often using different frameworks and platforms, making comparisons challenging. A standardized framework is urgently needed to implement and evaluate these methods. To address these issues, we propose LibCity, an open-source library that offers researchers a credible experimental tool and a convenient development framework. In this library, we have reproduced 65 spatial-temporal prediction models and collected 55 spatial-temporal datasets, allowing researchers to conduct comprehensive experiments conveniently. By enabling fair model comparisons, designing a unified data storage format, and simplifying the process of developing new models, LibCity is poised to make significant contributions to the spatial-temporal prediction field.

Deep reinforcement learning has the potential to address various scientific problems. In this paper, we implement an optics simulation environment for reinforcement learning based controllers. The environment captures the essence of nonconvexity, nonlinearity, and time-dependent noise inherent in optical systems, offering a more realistic setting. Subsequently, we provide the benchmark results of several reinforcement learning algorithms on the proposed simulation environment. The experimental findings demonstrate the superiority of off-policy reinforcement learning approaches over traditional control algorithms in navigating the intricacies of complex optical control environments. The code of the paper is available at https://github.com/Walleclipse/Reinforcement-Learning-Pulse-Stacking.

Batch reinforcement learning (RL) defines the task of learning from a fixed batch of data lacking exhaustive exploration. Worst-case optimality algorithms, which calibrate a value-function model class from logged experience and perform some type of pessimistic evaluation under the learned model, have emerged as a promising paradigm for batch RL. However, contemporary works on this stream have commonly overlooked the hierarchical decision-making structure hidden in the optimization landscape. In this paper, we adopt a game-theoretical viewpoint and model the policy learning diagram as a two-player general-sum game with a leader-follower structure. We propose a novel stochastic gradient-based learning algorithm: StackelbergLearner, in which the leader player updates according to the total derivative of its objective instead of the usual individual gradient, and the follower player makes individual updates and ensures transition-consistent pessimistic reasoning. The derived learning dynamic naturally lends StackelbergLearner to a game-theoretic interpretation and provides a convergence guarantee to differentiable Stackelberg equilibria. From a theoretical standpoint, we provide instance-dependent regret bounds with general function approximation, which shows that our algorithm can learn a best-effort policy that is able to compete against any comparator policy that is covered by batch data. Notably, our theoretical regret guarantees only require realizability without any data coverage and strong function approximation conditions, e.g., Bellman closedness, which is in contrast to prior works lacking such guarantees. Through comprehensive experiments, we find that our algorithm consistently performs as well or better as compared to state-of-the-art methods in batch RL benchmark and real-world datasets.

We study high-confidence off-policy evaluation in the context of infinite-horizon Markov decision processes, where the objective is to establish a confidence interval (CI) for the target policy value using only offline data pre-collected from unknown behavior policies. This task faces two primary challenges: providing a comprehensive and rigorous error quantification in CI estimation, and addressing the distributional shift that results from discrepancies between the distribution induced by the target policy and the offline data-generating process. Motivated by an innovative unified error analysis, we jointly quantify the two sources of estimation errors: the misspecification error on modeling marginalized importance weights and the statistical uncertainty due to sampling, within a single interval. This unified framework reveals a previously hidden tradeoff between the errors, which undermines the tightness of the CI. Relying on a carefully designed discriminator function, the proposed estimator achieves a dual purpose: breaking the curse of the tradeoff to attain the tightest possible CI, and adapting the CI to ensure robustness against distributional shifts. Our method is applicable to time-dependent data without assuming any weak dependence conditions via leveraging a local supermartingale/martingale structure. Theoretically, we show that our algorithm is sample-efficient, error-robust, and provably convergent even in non-linear function approximation settings. The numerical performance of the proposed method is examined in synthetic datasets and an OhioT1DM mobile health study.

The maximum likelihood method is the best-known method for estimating the probabilities behind the data. However, the conventional method obtains the probability model closest to the empirical distribution, resulting in overfitting. Then regularization methods prevent the model from being excessively close to the wrong probability, but little is known systematically about their performance. The idea of regularization is similar to error-correcting codes, which obtain optimal decoding by mixing suboptimal solutions with an incorrectly received code. The optimal decoding in error-correcting codes is achieved based on gauge symmetry. We propose a theoretically guaranteed regularization in the maximum likelihood method by focusing on a gauge symmetry in Kullback -- Leibler divergence. In our approach, we obtain the optimal model without the need to search for hyperparameters frequently appearing in regularization.

Most existing federated learning methods are unable to estimate model/predictive uncertainty since the client models are trained using the standard loss function minimization approach which ignores such uncertainties. In many situations, however, especially in limited data settings, it is beneficial to take into account the uncertainty in the model parameters at each client as it leads to more accurate predictions and also because reliable estimates of uncertainty can be used for tasks, such as out-of-distribution (OOD) detection, and sequential decision-making tasks, such as active learning. We present a framework for federated learning with uncertainty where, in each round, each client infers the posterior distribution over its parameters as well as the posterior predictive distribution (PPD), distills the PPD into a single deep neural network, and sends this network to the server. Unlike some of the recent Bayesian approaches to federated learning, our approach does not require sending the whole posterior distribution of the parameters from each client to the server but only the PPD in the distilled form as a deep neural network. In addition, when making predictions at test time, it does not require computationally expensive Monte-Carlo averaging over the posterior distribution because our approach always maintains the PPD in the form of a single deep neural network. Moreover, our approach does not make any restrictive assumptions, such as the form of the clients' posterior distributions, or of their PPDs. We evaluate our approach on classification in federated setting, as well as active learning and OOD detection in federated settings, on which our approach outperforms various existing federated learning baselines.

Active learning provides a framework to adaptively query the most informative experiments towards learning an unknown black-box function. Various approaches of active learning have been proposed in the literature, however, they either focus on exploration or exploitation in the design space. Methods that do consider exploration-exploitation simultaneously employ fixed or ad-hoc measures to control the trade-off that may not be optimal. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical approach, referred as BHEEM, to dynamically balance the exploration-exploitation trade-off as more data points are queried. To sample from the posterior distribution of the trade-off parameter, We subsequently formulate an approximate Bayesian computation approach based on the linear dependence of queried data in the feature space. Simulated and real-world examples show the proposed approach achieves at least 21% and 11% average improvement when compared to pure exploration and exploitation strategies respectively. More importantly, we note that by optimally balancing the trade-off between exploration and exploitation, BHEEM performs better or at least as well as either pure exploration or pure exploitation.