We present VBPI-Mixtures, an algorithm designed to enhance the accuracy of phylogenetic posterior distributions, particularly for tree-topology and branchlength approximations. Despite the Variational Bayesian Phylogenetic Inference (VBPI), a leading-edge black-box variational inference (BBVI) framework, achieving remarkable approximations of these distributions, the multimodality of the tree-topology posterior presents a formidable challenge to sampling-based learning techniques such as BBVI. Advanced deep learning methodologies such as normalizing flows and graph neural networks have been explored to refine the branch-length posterior approximation, yet efforts to ameliorate the posterior approximation over tree topologies have been lacking. As a result, VBPI-Mixtures is capable of capturing distributions over tree-topologies that VBPI fails to model. We deliver state-ofthe-art performance on difficult density estimation tasks across numerous real phylogenetic datasets. Phylogenetic inference has a wide range of applications in various fields, such as molecular evolution, epidemiology, ecology, and tumor progression, making it an essential tool for modern evolutionary research. Bayesian phylogenetics allows researchers to reason about uncertainty in their findings about the evolutionary relationship between species. The posterior distribution over phylogenetic trees given the species data is, however, challenging to infer, since the latent space is a Cartesian product of the discrete tree-topology space and the continuous branch-length space. Furthermore, the cardinality of the tree-topology space grows as a double factorial of the number of species (taxa), making the marginal likelihood computationally intractable in most interesting problem settings.

Sparse linear regression methods for high-dimensional data often assume that residuals have constant variance. When this assumption is violated, it can lead to bias in estimated coefficients, prediction intervals (PI) with improper length, and increased type I errors. We propose a heteroscedastic high-dimensional linear regression model through a partitioned empirical Bayes Expectation Conditional Maximization (H-PROBE) algorithm. H-PROBE is a computationally efficient maximum a posteriori estimation approach based on a Parameter-Expanded Expectation-Conditional-Maximization algorithm. It requires minimal prior assumptions on the regression parameters through plug-in empirical Bayes estimates of hyperparameters. The variance model uses a multivariate log-Gamma prior on coefficients that can incorporate covariates hypothesized to impact heterogeneity. The motivation of our approach is a study relating Aphasia Quotient (AQ) to high-resolution T2 neuroimages of brain damage in stroke patients. AQ is a vital measure of language impairment and informs treatment decisions, but it is challenging to measure and subject to heteroscedastic errors. It is, therefore, of clinical importance -- and the goal of this paper -- to use high-dimensional neuroimages to predict and provide PIs for AQ that accurately reflect the heterogeneity in residual variance. Our analysis demonstrates that H-PROBE can use markers of heterogeneity to provide narrower PI widths than standard methods without sacrificing coverage. Through extensive simulation studies, we exhibit that H-PROBE results in superior prediction, variable selection, and predictive inference than competing methods.

Driven by the enormous success of neural networks in a broad spectrum of machine learning applications, see Goodfellow et al. [16] and Schmidhuber [29] for an introduction, the theoretical understanding of network based methods is a dynamic and flourishing research area at the intersection of mathematical statistics, optimization and approximation theory. In addition to theoretical guarantees, uncertainty quantification is an important and challenging problem for neural networks and has motivated the introduction of Bayesian neural networks, where for each network weight a distribution is learned, see Graves [17] and Blundell et al. [8] and numerous subsequent articles. In this work we study the Gibbs posterior distribution for a stochastic neural network. In a nonparametric regression problem, we show that the corresponding estimator achieves a minimax-optimal prediction risk bound up to a logarithmic factor. Moreover, the method is adaptive with respect to the unknown regularity and structure of the regression function. While early theoretical foundations for neural nets are summarized by Anthony & Bartlett [4], the excellent approximation properties of deep neural nets, especially with the ReLU activation function, have been discovered in the last years, see e.g.

To this end, vast amounts of data generated by various sources, including sensors and other monitoring systems, need to be effectively structured and represented in a way that can be easily understood and processed by both Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems and humans. The digitalisation of the wind energy sector is one of the key drivers for reducing costs and risks over the whole wind energy project life cycle [2]. The digitalisation process encompasses solutions such as digital twins, decision support systems and AI systems, some of which need to still be developed, in order to contribute to reducing operation and maintenance costs, for increasing the amount of energy delivered, as well as for maximising the efficiency of wind energy systems. In this context, the term Knowledge-Based Systems (KBS) refers to AI systems that formalize knowledge as rules, logical expressions, and conceptualisations [3, 4]. Such systems can be realised as AI-enabled digital twins or decision support systems that rely on databases of knowledge (also referred to as knowledge bases or knowledge graphs), which contain machine-readable facts, rules, and logics about a domain of interest, to assist with problem-solving and decision-making [5].

As artificial intelligence (AI) systems play an increasingly prominent role in human decision-making, challenges surface in the realm of human-AI interactions. One challenge arises from the suboptimal AI policies due to the inadequate consideration of humans disregarding AI recommendations, as well as the need for AI to provide advice selectively when it is most pertinent. This paper presents a sequential decision-making model that (i) takes into account the human's adherence level (the probability that the human follows/rejects machine advice) and (ii) incorporates a defer option so that the machine can temporarily refrain from making advice. We provide learning algorithms that learn the optimal advice policy and make advice only at critical time stamps. Compared to problem-agnostic reinforcement learning algorithms, our specialized learning algorithms not only enjoy better theoretical convergence properties but also show strong empirical performance.

Mixture models are traditionally represented and learned by adding several distributions as components. Allowing mixtures to subtract probability mass or density can drastically reduce the number of components needed to model complex distributions. However, learning such subtractive mixtures while ensuring they still encode a non-negative function is challenging. We investigate how to learn and perform inference on deep subtractive mixtures by squaring them. We do this in the framework of probabilistic circuits, which enable us to represent tensorized mixtures and generalize several other subtractive models. We theoretically prove that the class of squared circuits allowing subtractions can be exponentially more expressive than traditional additive mixtures; and, we empirically show this increased expressiveness on a series of real-world distribution estimation tasks.

This paper studies the problem of learning message propagation strategies for graph neural networks (GNNs). One of the challenges for graph neural networks is that of defining the propagation strategy. For instance, the choices of propagation steps are often specialized to a single graph and are not personalized to different nodes. To compensate for this, in this paper, we present learning to propagate, a general learning framework that not only learns the GNN parameters for prediction but more importantly, can explicitly learn the interpretable and personalized propagate strategies for different nodes and various types of graphs. We introduce the optimal propagation steps as latent variables to help find the maximum-likelihood estimation of the GNN parameters in a variational Expectation-Maximization (VEM) framework. Extensive experiments on various types of graph benchmarks demonstrate that our proposed framework can significantly achieve better performance compared with the state-of-the-art methods, and can effectively learn personalized and interpretable propagate strategies of messages in GNNs.

The problem of how to take the right actions to make profits in sequential process continues to be difficult due to the quick dynamics and a significant amount of uncertainty in many application scenarios. In such complicated environments, reinforcement learning (RL), a reward-oriented strategy for optimum control, has emerged as a potential technique to address this strategic decision-making issue. However, reinforcement learning also has some shortcomings that make it unsuitable for solving many financial problems, excessive resource consumption, and inability to quickly obtain optimal solutions, making it unsuitable for quantitative trading markets. In this study, we use two methods to overcome the issue with contextual information: contextual Thompson sampling and reinforcement learning under supervision which can accelerate the iterations in search of the best answer. In order to investigate strategic trading in quantitative markets, we merged the earlier financial trading strategy known as constant proportion portfolio insurance (CPPI) into deep deterministic policy gradient (DDPG). The experimental results show that both methods can accelerate the progress of reinforcement learning to obtain the optimal solution.

The goal of this paper is to investigate distributed temporal difference (TD) learning for a networked multi-agent Markov decision process. The proposed approach is based on distributed optimization algorithms, which can be interpreted as primal-dual Ordinary differential equation (ODE) dynamics subject to null-space constraints. Based on the exponential convergence behavior of the primal-dual ODE dynamics subject to null-space constraints, we examine the behavior of the final iterate in various distributed TD-learning scenarios, considering both constant and diminishing step-sizes and incorporating both i.i.d. and Markovian observation models. Unlike existing methods, the proposed algorithm does not require the assumption that the underlying communication network structure is characterized by a doubly stochastic matrix.

We provide the first step toward developing a hierarchical control-estimation framework to actively plan robot trajectories for anomaly detection in confined spaces. The space is represented globally using a directed region graph, where a region is a landmark that needs to be visited (inspected). We devise a fast mixing Markov chain to find an ergodic route that traverses this graph so that the region visitation frequency is proportional to its anomaly detection uncertainty, while satisfying the edge directionality (region transition) constraint(s). Preliminary simulation results show fast convergence to the ergodic solution and confident estimation of the presence of anomalies in the inspected regions.